Stifler's MLB Modified 2015

[imotiv8]

Just got the ok from Stifler for Kubala to post a modified version of his baseball system

[Kubala]

Thanks for the heads up Imotiv: I will post the rules tomorrow.

[Kubala]

Ok Folks,

I will post Stifler’s system 4 from last year.

Here are the basic rules:

All plays will be 4 game chases. Standard chase rules apply, that is; when u lose a bet, u bet to cover what u lost in the previous bet(s) + 1 unit. When a system team scores or allows 10 runs in a game, the chasing starts.

Example A: SFG beats ATL 10-2: U would play San Francisco in their next game. (SF is a system team, ATL isn’t.) That would be the “A” bet. If SF wins, then the chase is done and u win 1 unit. If they lose, then u would wait for their next double digits game. If in this next game they score 10 runs and win, play them. If they allow 10 runs and lose, fade them. That would be the “B” bet.This process repeats for the C and the D bets. A loss is counted when a D bet loses.

Example B: KCR beats LAA 10-9. U would fade LAA in their next game. (LAA is a system team, KCR isn’t.) That would be the “A” bet. If LAA loses, then the chase is done and u win 1 unit. If they win, then u would wait for their next double digits game. If in this next game they score 10 runs and win, play them. If they allow 10 runs and lose, fade them. That would be the “B” bet.This process repeats for the C and the D bets. A loss is counted when a D bet loses.

Example C: TOR beats BAL 10-5. Since both teams are system teams, 2 chases will emanate from this result: a TOR play and a BAL fade. U would then play TOR in their next game and fade BAL in their next game. The same logic applies here with the B, C and D bets.

In those rare cases where both system teams score 10+runs in the game, u play the winner in their next game and fade the loser in the next game, even though the loser scored 10+ runs and the winner allowed 10+ runs.

System Teams:

American League: BAL, BOS, NYY, TBR, CLE, TOR, CHW, MIN, HOU, LAA, TEX

National League: ARI, SFG, COL

Since this is essentially his system, Stifler can appear and change the teams if he feels like it.

The system will stop generating new chases the 25^th of August. The remainder of the season will be used to complete the chases that are already open.

Trail at your own risk, as a 4 game chase be expensive. Last year’s system was successful but I can’t guarantee a repeat, as the system has only 1 year of actual testing under its belt.

Best of Luck to those who follow...

[Stifler]

here is something to work with:

Team records over the last 4 seasons:

Baltimore
2011: 10-0
2012: 9-0
2013: 10-0
2014: 5-1

Boston
2011: 15-0
2012: 14-0
2013: 13-0
2014: 4-0

NYY
2011: 16-0
2012: 7-1
2013: 11-0
2014: 4-1

TB
2011: 5-0
2012: 8-1
2013: 10-0
2014: 6-0

Toronto
2011: 11-0
2012: 12-0
2013: 11-1
2014: 11-0

CHW
2011: 7-0
2012: 13-0
2013: 4-0
2014: 7-1

Cleveland
2011: 10-0
2012: 14-0
2013: 12-0
2014: 7-0

Detroit
2011: 9-1
2012: 9-0
2013: 11-2
2014: 13-0

KC
2011: 11-0
2012: 5-0
2013: 4-0
2014: 9-0

Minnesota
2011: 9-1
2012: 13-0
2013: 8-0
2014: 5-0

Houston
2011: 8-0
2012: 8-1
2013: 12-0
2014: 14-0

LA Angels
2011: 5-0
2012: 13-0
2013: 12-0
2014: 7-1

Oakland
2011: 4-0
2012: 6-0
2013: 7-1
2014: 6-1

Seattle
2011: 6-0
2012: 4-0
2013: 13-0
2014: 7-0

Texas
2011: 15-0
2012: 15-0
2013: 6-1
2014: 11-0

Atlanta
2011: 5-2
2012: 9-0
2013: 6-0
2014: 7-1

Miami
2011: 6-0
2012: 7-0
2013: 3-1
2014: 5-0

NY Mets
2011: 7-0
2012: 6-0
2013: 7-0
2014: 3-0

Phillies
2011: 9-0
2012: 3-1
2013: 5-1
2014: 13-0

Washington
2011: 7-1
2012: 4-0
2013: 4-1
2014: 6-0

Cubs
2011: 4-1
2012: 6-2
2013: 7-0
2014: 6-1

Cincinnati
2011: 7-1
2012: 5-1
2013: 9-0
2014: 5-0

Milwaukee
2011: 10-0
2012: 6-0
2013: 6-1
2014: 4-1

Pittsburgh
2011: 7-0
2012: 8-1
2013: 8-0
2014: 4-1

St. Louis
2011: 6-1
2012: 11-0
2013: 10-0
2014: 3-1

Arizona
2011: 5-0
2012: 10-0
2013: 9-0
2014: 7-0

Colorado
2011: 9-1
2012: 15-0
2013: 9-0
2014: 12-1

LA Dodgers
2011: 5-0
2012: 5-0
2013: 4-0
2014: 4-0

San Diego
2011: 4-1
2012: 3-0
2013: 7-1
2014: 5-0

San Francisco
2011: 4-0
2012: 5-0
2013: 14-0
2014: 2-0

[imotiv8]

Nice Stif!

[imotiv8]

Kubala based on those results by Stifler maybe we should add all those teams to get more action

[skyscrapers]

At a quick glance playing all the teams is not going to work. We have losses of 10, 8, 10, 11 per season between 2011~2014. In a 4~game chase with that many losses with 200 or so wins a season will result in massive losses. We should stay with the qualified teams or come up with a new list of teams.

[Kubala]

Stifler, thanks for posting your backtest info.

Guys: See this list I made. It contains the backtest team numbers sorted by winning%.
In my opinion, keeping the list to about half of the teams Is the safest way to go. Stifler last year had 14 of the 30 teams, so maybe we should have 14 or 15 this year:

Team	Wins	Losses	PCT	Include ?
Boston	46	0	1.000	YES
Cleveland	43	0	1.000	YES
Arizona	31	0	1.000	YES
Seattle	30	0	1.000	YES
KC	29	0	1.000	YES
San Francisco	25	0	1.000	YES
NY Mets	23	0	1.000	Maybe
LA Dodgers	18	0	1.000	NO
Texas	47	1	0.979	YES
Toronto	45	1	0.978	YES
Houston	42	1	0.977	YES
LA Angels	37	1	0.974	YES
Minnesota	35	1	0.972	YES
Baltimore	34	1	0.971	YES
CHW	31	1	0.969	YES
TB	29	1	0.967	YES
Colorado	45	2	0.957	Maybe
Miami	21	1	0.955	NO
NYY	38	2	0.950	NO
Phillies	30	2	0.938	NO
St. Louis	30	2	0.938	NO
Detroit	42	3	0.933	NO
Pittsburgh	27	2	0.931	NO
Cincinnati	26	2	0.929	NO
Milwaukee	26	2	0.929	NO
Oakland	23	2	0.920	NO
Washington	21	2	0.913	NO
San Diego	19	2	0.905	NO
Atlanta	27	3	0.900	NO
Cubs	23	4	0.852	NO

The top teams like Boston and Cleveland are a no-brainer. So is leaving out teams like San Diego and the Cubs. I left the Dodgers out because even though they are undefeated, they have a small sample size and they will command high juice since they are big favorites. I have doubts about Colorado and the Mets. I think we should keep it to 15 teams Max.

[imotiv8]

Nice!

[Kubala]

Ok, the decision was made to not include Colorado and play the Mets. These are the official 15 teams for the system:
American League: BOS, BAL, TBR, TOR, CLE, CHW, MIN, KCR, HOU, TEX, SEA, LAA
National League: NYM, SFG, ARI.

I will post the odds that I get, so your unit count might vary in relation to mine. I will post in American style; ie -115, -185, etc.
BR.

[Kubala]

Ok, here we go:

08.04.2015

#1 KCR (A): Kansas City -125
#2 CHW (A): Kansas City -125

Please don't forget: Trail at your own risk as a 4 game chase can get pricey.

[imotiv8]

Good job keeping track! A couple of questions: #1 why do you have KC posted twice? #2 date you have is April 7, 2014?

[HighFive]

I believe the date is just a mistake.. The reason he has KC twice is because they beat CWS 10-1 on Monday. Seeing as how both are included in the formula, you would play: 1) Kansas City to WIN; 2) Chicago White Sox to LOSE.

So, 2 bets on KC, but technically, it's 1 to favor KC and 1 to fade CWS.

[crackerjack]

I don't understand what qualifies as a play. Margin of victory matters? Can you explain that in more detail please...

[crackerjack]

I don't understand what qualifies as a play. Margin of victory matters? Can you explain that in more detail please...

Never mind. I realize only certain teams are included in this chase.

[Kubala]

HighFive, Imotiv.

HighFive's explanation is correct. Since both teams involved In the double digits game are in the system, two chases take place, a KC play and a CWS fade.

Today DET bombed Minny 11-0, but since DET is not a system team, there will only be 1 chase: a MIN fade.

[Kubala]

Ok, here we go:

08.04.2015

#1 KCR (A): Kansas City -125
#2 CHW (A): Kansas City -125

Please don't forget: Trail at your own risk as a 4 game chase can get pricey.

Record:
S4: W 2 | L 0 (+2,00 units)

[takethepnts]

Great start. Thank you for your work and taking the time to post and share :-)

[Kubala]

APR.09.2015

#3 MIN (A): Detroit -160
#4 TEX (A): Oakland -150

[imotiv8]

good job Kubala! Anyone that is tailing should at least give him some points, he's taking out his time to post and share!

[Kubala]

APR.09.2015

#3 MIN (A): Detroit -160
#4 TEX (A): Oakland -150

Record:
S4: W 3 | L 0 (+3,00 units)

pending:
#4 TEX (B) APR.10.2015

[Kubala]

Thanks for your support Imotiv.

APR.10.2015
#4 TEX (B): Texas +100

[zxc]

Cleared

[msangreal]

Hey Kubala. I think we had a mistake for the series of TEX. On the A bet we faded it then on the B bet we followed it. If I remembered correctly we don't change method on the middle of a chase, meaning if we are fading TEX on a chase we would be fading it all throughout A B C D if necessary. Can you confirm on this? Thanks!

With all due respect take the time to read the rules before asking questions like this - Kubala is correct according to the rules

[takethepnts]

Hey Kubala. I think we had a mistake for the series of TEX. On the A bet we faded it then on the B bet we followed it. If I remembered correctly we don't change method on the middle of a chase, meaning if we are fading TEX on a chase we would be fading it all throughout A B C D if necessary. Can you confirm on this? Thanks!

Example A: SFG beats ATL 10-2: U would play San Francisco in their next game. (SF is a system team, ATL isn’t.) That would be the “A” bet. If SF wins, then the chase is done and u win 1 unit. If they lose, then u would wait for their next double digits game. If in this next game they score 10 runs and win, play them. If they allow 10 runs and lose, fade them. That would be the “B” bet.This process repeats for the C and the D bets. A loss is counted when a D bet loses.

[zxc]

My bad. I didn't realize that we are just playing System 4 of Stifler's System. Got hooked up too much on System 1-3. Thanks for the clarification!

[Kubala]

APR.10.2015
#4 TEX (B): Texas +100

record:
S4:W 3 | L 0 (+3.00 units)

pending:
#4 Tex (C) on next dd game

[Kubala]

APR.11.2015

#5 BAL (A): Toronto +100
#6 TOR (A): Toronto +100
#7 TBR (A): Miami +100
#8 SEA (A): Oakland -150

pending:
#4 Tex (C) on next dd game

[takethepnts]

My bad. I didn't realize that we are just playing System 4 of Stifler's System. Got hooked up too much on System 1-3. Thanks for the clarification!

Your welcome. Good luck going forward!

[d003r]

Hi Kubala,

After tonight's results, I would guess the play for tomorrow is to fade San Francisco? Do we play with or without pitcher requirements, and do we ever play a run line?

[Kubala]

D003r: Correct. Fade San Francisco. The system does not use listed pitchers, only team vs team. I don't think Stif ever played the run line for this system, so only play moneyline.

[Kubala]

APR.11.2015

#5 BAL (A): Toronto +100
#6 TOR (A): Toronto +100
#7 TBR (A): Miami +100
#8 SEA (A): Oakland -150

[Kubala]

APR.12.2015

#9 SFG (A): SDP -130

Pending:

#4 TEX (C): on next dd game
#5 BAL (B): on next dd game
#6 TOR (B): on next dd game
#7 TBR (B): on next dd game
#8 SEA (B): on next dd game

[Kubala]

APR.12.2015

#9 SFG (A): SDP -130

record:
S4:W 4 | L 0 (+4.00 units)

Pending:
#4 TEX (C): on next dd game
#5 BAL (B): on next dd game
#6 TOR (B): on next dd game
#7 TBR (B): on next dd game
#8 SEA (B): on next dd game

[Kubala]

APR.13.2015

#5 BAL (B): NYY +110
#6 TOR (B): TOR -140
#10 NYY (A): NYY +110
#11 BOS (A): WAS +100

Pending:
#4 TEX (C): on next dd game
#7 TBR (B): on next dd game
#8 SEA (B): on next dd game