Ali & Hayduke's Base Pickers

[mitch51]

The Red Sox cannot hit lefties. There was a large article in todays Boston Herald with the breakdown, man they are pathetic against them. BOL today.

Put some spit on your finger and see which way the wind blows. That's what we do now.

[mitch51]

Coming from a big time Sox fan I can tell you that Miley is dogshit in the AL. That 5 run ERA is the real deal. He looked a little!e better last two starts but that was against Texas and Oakland. Not exactly premium offenses.

Agreed. He is godawful. We would be up two extra units if we had listened the first time you told us.

[mitch51]

Miley is either on or off also. More off than on.

For sure. Almost bad enough to fade. He's lost us some units.

[mitch51]

The update is coming and hopefully the Dogs are turning around.


<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/hgQNYc6y-bM" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

[mitch51]

05.24.15 ALI DOGS
1:35pm ET
919 LAA/Santiago +108 1.00/1.08

2:10pm ET
921 MIN/Gibson +135 1.00/1.35


HAYDUKE

1:35pm ET
906 ATL/Foltynewicz +100 .50/.50


UMPIRES STREAKING

None


GLTA


Ali & Hayduke

UPDATE:

ALI DOGS
1-1 +.35u
44-57 -4.75u 44.0%


HAYDUKE
1-0 +.50u
39-35 +4.47u 52.70%


UMPIRES STREAKING
4-2 +.70u 66.7%



This season update (preseason through today)

166-165 +15.69u 50.15%



Last 2 years record through today

352-351 +41.92u 50.07%


Enjoy the rest of your day/evening.


Ali & Hayduke

[mhille]

I meant to post this earlier from a site that I read for daily fantasy. Not meant to be an after the fact post, but more so for the future. "Santiago has been extremely good this year (2.25 ERA), but his peripherals indicate he's performing above his talent level. Santiago is owner of a 4.57 xFIP, .248 BABIP and 87% strand rate. While the team as a whole has been underwhelming." Take it for what it's worth.

[mitch51]

I meant to post this earlier from a site that I read for daily fantasy. Not meant to be an after the fact post, but more so for the future. "Santiago has been extremely good this year (2.25 ERA), but his peripherals indicate he's performing above his talent level. Santiago is owner of a 4.57 xFIP, .248 BABIP and 87% strand rate. While the team as a whole has been underwhelming." Take it for what it's worth.

Thanks for this. If Miley doesn't get us, Santiago does. But fact Is, the Red Sox cannot hit lefties which is what we were hoping might happen today. Thanks for that post, it'll be handy for the future.

[Sweatin da Bet]

Mitch, Have you ever looked at betting the DOGS on the run line?
DOGS this year are 297-346 ML and 406-237 RL

[bluetooth3]

Mitch, Have you ever looked at betting the DOGS on the run line?
DOGS this year are 297-346 ML and 406-237 RL

Any idea what that juice would have looked like though on the rl? I know Mitch isn't a chalk bettor and either am I so curious to know.

[Sweatin da Bet]

Any idea what that juice would have looked like though on the rl? I know Mitch isn't a chalk bettor and either am I so curious to know.

I haven't gotten that far yet, but I am working on it. When I am done I will post it in here. I just wanted to get Mitch's thoughts on it.

[mitch51]

Mitch, Have you ever looked at betting the DOGS on the run line?
DOGS this year are 297-346 ML and 406-237 RL

We would be interested to know what the average price is on taking the RL when betting the DOGS. Like Bluetooth indicated, we feel the juice kills. We try to stay far from it.

Thanks for your comments.

[buddha]

Good Luck to all today and 'Thank You' to those who have served and sacrificed...for this country.

I robbed this from the BiffTFinancial thread:

Last 6 Memorial Days
59 overs
27 unders
3 pushes

Average runs per game: 9.8

[mitch51]

Good morning all

05.25.15

ALI DOGS

2:10pm ET
955 SFG/Lincecum +110 1.00/1.10

4:15pm ET
959 AZ/Anderson +150 1.00/1.50

9:05pm ET
979 SD/Ross +125 1.00/1.25



HAYDUKE

1:05pm ET
965 KC/Guthrie +109 .50/.55

4:00pm ET
973 DET/Greene +115 .50/.58


UMPIRES STREAKING

None



GLTA

Ali and Hayduke

[buddha]

I 'spected HayD would be takin' a shot with KC and MAYBE DET but what is going on with that DET game? It was off the board for a bit now we are seeing a rather large line move in favor of OAK which is especially shocking considering its OAK in a Daygame where they are notoriously not successful. Any News on DET? I can't find any but thats par for the course I can never locate late news I need:

Opener DET +101 OAK -106 to now DET +117 OAK -127

[buddha]

I found out DET is (said to be) sitting Miguel Cabrera:

OAKLAND -- For the first time this season, Miguel Cabrera is getting a day off. Super utility player Hernan Perez will get the start at first base today in Detroit's series opener against the Oakland Athletics. He'll start in place of Cabrera who has started the past 45 games. Cabrera is expected to be available off the bench if needed. With Cabrera out of Monday's lineup, J.D. Martinez will hit third and Yoenis Cespedes will bat cleanup as the Tigers try to snap a two-game losing streak.

link below though above is pretty much the whole article:

http://www.mlive.com/tigers/index.ssf/2015/05/detroit_tigers_lineup_miguel_c_8.html#incart_river

[mitch51]

Good work, Buddha. I would have still taken Detroit. Kansas City is already getting rocked in first inning. Another day with these rabid dogs.

[mitch51]

I haven't gotten that far yet, but I am working on it. When I am done I will post it in here. I just wanted to get Mitch's thoughts on it.

If that is a pic of you as your avatar, it looks like betting baseball agrees with you.

[buddha]

Good work, Buddha. I would have still taken Detroit. Kansas City is already getting rocked in first inning. Another day with these rabid dogs.

Restrain HayD from hurling himself off the Bridge just yet. We've watched NYY get rocked massively in single innings of late, enough to cover this 8 run headstart. Need KC to keep their heads in the game. not throw in the towel 'n just write the game off. Royals can get to Eovaldi if they just don't give up. Regardless of what anyone says, NYY amidst the massive slide just having been swept by TX, losers of their last 10 out of 11 facing KC @ 28-16 & 7-3 L10 the play on KC felt sensible.

[buddha]

If that is a pic of you as your avatar, it looks like betting baseball agrees with you.

Making that poor girl have to lean down like that to fit in his avatar is mean. A noticeable truth is that Girl Swimmers are generally hot

and fit. This one seems to adhere to that truth.

[mitch51]

Repost for the late game and any late comers to the thread.

Good morning all

05.25.15

ALI DOGS

2:10pm ET
955 SFG/Lincecum +110 1.00/1.10

4:15pm ET
959 AZ/Anderson +150 1.00/1.50

9:05pm ET
979 SD/Ross +125 1.00/1.25



HAYDUKE

1:05pm ET
965 KC/Guthrie +109 .50/.55

4:00pm ET
973 DET/Greene +115 .50/.58


UMPIRES STREAKING

None



GLTA

Ali and Hayduke

[Sweatin da Bet]

We would be interested to know what the average price is on taking the RL when betting the DOGS. Like Bluetooth indicated, we feel the juice kills. We try to stay far from it.

Thanks for your comments.

I get what you are saying about the juice. I was just wondering if you have ever looked into it.
If i did this correctly the total juice for the first 7 weeks until 5/23 would be -108777 divided by the 643 games played would be -169.17. So i guess that is a lot of juice.

[mitch51]

05.25.15

ALI DOGS

2:10pm ET
955 SFG/Lincecum +110 1.00/1.10


4:15pm ET
959 AZ/Anderson +150 1.00/1.50


9:05pm ET
979 SD/Ross +125 1.00/1.25



HAYDUKE

1:05pm ET
965 KC/Guthrie +109 .50/.55

4:00pm ET
973 DET/Greene +115 .50/.58


UMPIRES STREAKING

None



GLTA

Ali and Hayduke

UPDATE:

ALI DOGS
1-2 -.90u
45-59 -5.65u 43.27%


HAYDUKE
0-2 -1.00u
39-37 +3.47u 51.32%


UMPIRES STREAKING
4-2 +.70u 66.7%


Good night

Ali & Hayduke

[bluetooth3]

Bounce back day tomorrow. Dogs will bite tomorrow! Hope you 2 enjoyed your day

[mitch51]

Bounce back day tomorrow. Dogs will bite tomorrow! Hope you 2 enjoyed your day

Let's hope so. Super day thanks.

[mitch51]

Hello everyone a beautiful day...

05.26.15 ALI DOGS

7:05pm ET
915 HOU/Feldman +105 1.00/1.05


HAYDUKE

None


UMPIRES STREAKING

10:05pm ET
930 LAA/SD Shoemaker/Despaigne OV 8 +100 .50/.50
Ump-Barrett 4W/6L 6OV/4UN 60% OVER


GLTA


Ali & Hayduke

[Cordoba25]

Mitch,

Now that umps have 10 games in the bag, how come you are only wagering 1/2 unit for the streakers.. where as on Ali's picks the wager is 1 full unit. Do you not feel as confident that the umpire streakers will perform just as well over the long run?

[mitch51]

Mitch,

Now that umps have 10 games in the bag, how come you are only wagering 1/2 unit for the streakers.. where as on Ali's picks the wager is 1 full unit. Do you not feel as confident that the umpire streakers will perform just as well over the long run?

Just for a few more days until we get some more info. After that we are going to hammer them for a full unit.

[Cordoba25]

Ok. Gotya! Tailing you all the way on these so just wanted to make sure!

[mitch51]

05.26.15 ALI DOGS

7:05pm ET
915 HOU/Feldman +105 1.00/1.05


HAYDUKE

None


UMPIRES STREAKING

10:05pm ET
930 LAA/SD Shoemaker/Despaigne OV 8 +100 .50/.50
Ump-Barrett 4W/6L 6OV/4UN 60% OVER


GLTA


Ali & Hayduke

UPDATE:

ALI DOGS
1-0 +1.05u
46-59 -4.60u 43.81%


HAYDUKE
39-37 +3.47u 51.32%


UMPIRES STREAKING
0-1 -.50u
4-3 +.20u 57.14%


Good night


Ali & Hayduke

[mitch51]

Good morning everyone


05.27.15 ALI DOGS

None


HAYDUKE

1:05pm ET
967 KC/Young +128 .50/.64

1:40pm ET
957 SFG/Vogelsong +116 .50/.58



UMPIRES STREAKING

None


GLTA


Ali & Hayduke

[RollinDo]

No Seattle Under today?

[mitch51]

No Seattle Under today?

SEA has an under umpire with only 8 games behind him but other stats we have says possible over.

GL

[RollinDo]

I played M's small and Under 6.5 regular.
King Felix has been great to back this season and most of last year. Not really sure if before as I hadn't followed mlb much before.
Man - I played No Score 1st in NY Yanks game...Neither starter had allowed a run in 1st this season until today. Oh well...that 1st Inning prop is one to play every once in a blue moon.

[Lefty123]

Rollin smart play Felix good price on road.I took him also I have him over 14and half wins. Best in baseball

[bossman71]

If I am correct last year you end at almost exactly 50% and up around 30 units? This with umpire streakers and dogs combined right?

also do you only pick your umpire spots occasionally so very low volume but tend to hit higher %?