CK's Daily Baseball Thread Leans for Monday 4/6/09

[MJT1212]

Welcome members to another wonderful baseball season. I make only one or two plays a day seperately from my system, and today is no exception. I have found a little reverse moovement to exploit for today's games. I look for only a couple of things. One of course are games where there is a favorite that is -150 or more with 70% or more bettors on their side with little or no movement, and the other is awesome records of a pitcher versus a certain squad.

Such an example is present in the matchup of my favorite team the Dodgers versus the Padres today. Jake Peavy owns the Dodgers and is 13-1 over his career against them. Hiroki Kuroda is not opening day material and is a mediocre pitcher at best. The public is pounding the Dodgers in an effort to get a free chicken dinner, and I say "Not so fast" like Lee Corso. Give me the small chalk and the better pitcher who has been lights out this pre-season. So for me my only play today is

San Diego-135

Alright, lets do it im tailing

[Killer Chihuahua]

i'm liking the reds to make some waves this year, and especially expecting a bounce back season from aaron harang. He lost weight in the offseason and reuped his game. Good value on Cincy in this series and the mets always come in with a slightly excessive hype.

CIN +1.5 (-105, probably safer than ML... rather win than be greedy to start the season)

zambrano historically struggles a bit on opening day and has regressed in recent years and oswalt is ready for a bit of a bounce back, that's some good returns on oswalt at home.

HOU ML

really high on the fins this year, especially nolasco. Nats counter with lannan? wow... poor nats.

FLA -1.5

Zambrano ownes the Astros and Oswalt has not been the same pitcher this Spring. I agree Zambrano has strugled on opening day but the Stros are just the pill to cure that pain!
Cubs win, Cubs win

[MrWendell]

I like today Mets, so today play is:
Ny Mets risk 1 unit to win .65

[Bookie-Rookie]

Does anyone know if CK's SD pick is for the first 5 innings only?...I'd appreciate it!

[Foghorn]

Hey Book Rook, CK said later in this thread that it is for the game. Good Luck

[peterpan19]

ok guys so baseball season in now officially under way... and with no nba today I tried to find some nice mlb plays for today...

here we go:
cin +1 (+104)
dbacks -1 (-108)
Flo -1 (-103)
Pit +155

thats it for the early games

GL

[joanapoker]

I'm also tailing SD Padres, but I'm getting at -124 (8% better) at bet365.......weird, I guess....or is this normal the difference in the odds from book to book?

[peterpan19]

joanapoker

normal difference... I have them at -122

GL

[B's Picks]

pads. -130

[cheesehead004]

Over 7.5 in the Reds/Mets game for me.

The Reds have a poor offensive lineup today IMO, but I'm not too big a fan of Santana and I expect him to give up 2-3 runs. I do not expect Harang to bounce back at all from last season and am expecting the Mets to blow them out of the water here something like 7-3 Mets.

On a side note I'm hearing the weather is pushing the start time of the game back. I hope it aint canceled.

[B's Picks]

COMPLETELY OFF TOPIC: but with not many viewing over in Golf I would like to bounce some ideas off of everybody in this forum. my book is giving my +2000 to pick the field at the masters excluding Tiger, Phil, Paddy and Ogilvy.....now real quick. Tiger or Phil didnt win last yr and Ogilvy and Paddy would have been considered the field. im looking at $300 to win $6,000?????? not a bad bet is it???

[cheesehead004]

This Mets over doesnt look too good so far. Hopefully it will pick up or get rained out lol.

I just dropped a BIG bet on CLE/TEX UNDER 5.5 for the 1st 5 innings. I like Lee and Millwood to turn in decent performances and keep the score low.

[Pajda]

With you on Padres

[wangichu]

aaron cook has a career 4.85/1.50 era/whip in games vs ari. last years 2 starts in arz resulted in 8er in 11ip. his team is 3-5 at the dbacks in games hes started. webb was solid vs the rockies last year pitching 3 home games (all wins) giving up 9er in 22ip. he has a career 3.80/1.28 in starts vs the rockies - in his 12 home starts vs col, the dbacks have gone 8-4 in those games.

-dbacks (RL -1.5 - odds to follow once booked)

think i'm gonna swagger jack this play. I think the rockies are in more of a rebuilding year and cook should pitch a little more down to earth after last year. Meanwhile, Webb continues to do his thing and i have the d-backs starting out strong with all of that young talent. D-backs and webb simply outclass the rocks and cook

ARI -1.5

[cheesehead004]

LOL this is disastrous for me so far. Oh well.

[repski]

TOR -1/2 (-115) (1st five innings)

-Roy Halladay against a Tigers line-up that only hit .242 for the spring....worst in the league
-Halladay is 11-3 in 14 lifetime starts against the Tigers....with a 1.96 ERA.
-Verlander had more walks than K's in spring training....
-Detroit is 12-25 in their last 37 vs Toronto.

[shoebox]

Waiting 2 weeks before I get rolling with baseball, gotta find a good edge

GL today mafia

[solobass]

also i have oakland and seattle as barking dogs later........damn it is good to have baseball back.

[SportsChic]

2 team parlay locked in...
Pittsburgh under 7.5
Marlins ML....

I hope Reds get three more outs without giving up a run and I will cash on my run line play...lets go reds!!

[B's Picks]

B0OKED:

SD ML
CUBS ML
ANGELS ML
TWINS -1.5 +160 (im a twins fan)

[Bookie-Rookie]

2 team parlay locked in...
Pittsburgh under 7.5
Marlins ML....

I hope Reds get three more outs without giving up a run and I will cash on my run line play...lets go reds!!

GL sportschic!!! Cash it!

[indeed]

Did CK play his system today? I thought we were supposed to wait until the 1st of May

[SportsChic]

Thanks Bookie babe

[BrandonLaz]

Sorry the write-ups are late, but I was busy earlier today. I threw in my write-up on the MSU game as well since we do not have a thread going in the NCAA forum.

Chicago Cubs vs Houston Astros (pk)

The Chicago Cubs are bringing Carlos Zambrano to the mound today. If anybody doesn't know what happened last time he played the Astros he got a no-hitter. The Astros will be more motivated than any team in the league opening day due to the revenge factor in play alone. That isn't even counting in how much teams love to win their home opener in front of all the fans eager for a new season. In fact, take away the no-hitter, and Houston has won three of the last four games against the Cubs that Zambrano started, touching him up for a total of 16 runs (all earned) in 24 innings – that’s a 6.00 ERA. Oswalt was a stud especially down the stretch for the Astros last season. Oswalt has the Cubs number right now only giving up a 1.23 ERA over his last 3 starts against them. You can also toss in the fact that he has won 8 straight home starts in a row and 55-18 in his home starts over his career. Take the Astros here as the Cubs won't find any good pitches today and the motivated hitters for the Astros put that run total to high.

Houston Astros pk (MEDIUM)

Michigan State Spartans (+7.5) vs North Carolina Tar Heels

This is a brand new Michigan State team who is out to prove they deserve more credit. It is the destiny team of 2009 with the economy hitting harder in Detroit than any other city. Does anyone remember 2001 when the Patriots went all the way in football when nobody expected them to. They where destiny's team winning after the tragedy on September 11th and now destiny's team who is bringing new hope and joy to a whole state is Michigan State. It doesn't hurt that they have covered the spread in all their NCAA tournament games and have the nice advantage of playing at home. Plus the fact that Tom Izzo during this time of the year is one of the best coaches in NCAA history. Roy Williams has yet to get to an NCAA Championship and win it with his own players that he recruited and tonight I do not see him being able to get the job done again. Izzo will have a gameplan that will play to all the weaknesses of the Tar Heels and keep this one close with a chance for another outright upset and National Championship for MSU.

Michigan State Spartans +7.5 (HEAVY)

I will also be playing CK's play on San Diego. I was going to play the Red Sox play of Dex as well, but the game was canceled.

[danrman]

cliff lee has an era above 6 vs. texas... millwood sucked last year.. this is a key year for him and the rangers are goin to be better this year... lee started out as a fav. in the 135's and now he's only a 123 fav. at 5 dimes... it should be going up not coming down if he was going to win.. take the rangers.. lee at that small price is just to good to be true and it will be 50 degress w/ a 25 mph nothwest wind making it feel like the 40's

can you saaaaaaaaaaaaay winner

[gyftosgreek]

guys any thoughts on det-tor under 7.5?

[showtime2000]

Nice call danrman!

NHL play tonight,
Buffalo -105

[tsn101]

My first picks for the season, I went 16-6 in the preseason so hopefully the good picks continue.

Today: LA Angels and a small bet on Minnesota. Toronto looks interesting but it's my home team so no call.

[suicidekings]

IMO, Oswalt, and Peavy will get the job done tonight.

CHI @ HOU (-101)
LA @ SD (-120)

_______________________
MLB 2009: 1-0 (+1.1u)

[Dexter]

also going to do a parlay using bost,balt,sd.... tailing dex and ck w/ another pick of my own in the parlay.. going to play sd straight later if things are going my way.. also you might want to buy some verizon and at&t if ya like... if you own them at the end of the biz. day you get 6% on your money.. happy opening day

hope you didnt tail me on the dbacks run line - that was brutal!

as much as it sucks to have your team win the game by 1, over the course of 2008 (when i first started doing run lines frequently) it paid for me to go that route instead of laying the heavy odds straight up.

ok, onto the twins/mariners

[Dexter]

think i'm gonna swagger jack this play. I think the rockies are in more of a rebuilding year and cook should pitch a little more down to earth after last year. Meanwhile, Webb continues to do his thing and i have the d-backs starting out strong with all of that young talent. D-backs and webb simply outclass the rocks and cook

ARI -1.5

sorry wang - i was on the road and ck texted me that the dbacks won - i was happy for a second, but then got the confirm that it was by 1 run. was plus 140 on the ml. would have been a sweet hit.

[Dexter]

i'm tailing you on msu laz

[khaliagent]

Although I have not publicly made this clear.
I am definitely willing to learn from u ck.
no more shit talk just honest capping.
I will be sharper than ever and come with no bullshit
I want to learn how to cap baseball and I think I know my pitchers well enough now that I can do damage I dont want to bother you anymore.
Just know that I have been watching your plays and I am very impressed.
good luck on the year.
Mich st loses bad tonight boys

[khaliagent]

Guys i think halladay will have a cy young caliber year.
Any thoughts, i am a little biased since i am from toronto and he is my favourite pitcher.

[Kav]

wtf is peavy doing right now!!!