CK's Daily Baseball Thread Leans for Monday 4/6/09

Dexter · 04-05-09, 11:35 PM

james shields does not like fenway park. tb is 0-3 in games he started at boston. last years 2 starts in boston totaled 11er in 4ip. beckett on the flip side had a solid 20ip for 6er in his 3 home starts vs tb. for his career, the redsox are 4-2 in home games he started vs tb.

-redsox (rain out)

aaron cook has a career 4.85/1.50 era/whip in games vs ari. last years 2 starts in arz resulted in 8er in 11ip. his team is 3-5 at the dbacks in games hes started. webb was solid vs the rockies last year pitching 3 home games (all wins) giving up 9er in 22ip. he has a career 3.80/1.28 in starts vs the rockies - in his 12 home starts vs col, the dbacks have gone 8-4 in those games.

-dbacks (RL -1.5 +7)

runs should be few and far between when liriano and king felix hook up. hernandez has a career 2.48/.96 vs the twins while liriano has a 1.50/1.00 era/whip vs the mariners. last year, liriano had 1 home start vs sea and gave up 0 er in 7ip. hernandez has only pitched twice in minny, but not since 2007. both starts back then were solid (15ip/5er). each teams best hitter (mauer/suzuki) will be out for this game as well.

under twins 7.5

RoagBettor · 04-05-09, 11:37 PM

CK, I'm assuming since you only play select games these are considered "Heavy" plays, or is that an incorrect assumption?

Vince Carter · 04-05-09, 11:38 PM

Originally posted by RoagBettor

CK, I'm assuming since you only play select games these are considered "Heavy" plays, or is that an incorrect assumption?

why would you ever bet a lot on a single game, let alone an april game

whatisit · 04-05-09, 11:44 PM

Hey CK, I was looking over your information for the starting pitchers records when heavy favorites and was wondering if those stats apply to April games too? Or do you not look at those until a month or two into the season when the players begin to find their rhythm.

Dexter · 04-05-09, 11:50 PM

Originally posted by Vince Carter

why would you ever bet a lot on a single game, let alone an april game

how does this comment make any sense whatsoever? the part about april i agree with, but why would you ever bet a lot on a single game?

bro, thats what making money in this sport is all about. hitting your big plays. good luck trying to hit 55-60% of your games.

cocknocker · 04-06-09, 12:16 AM

The most that I will ever put on a baseball game is $900.00 which would constitute a HEAVY baseball play. This also includes the JM bet (C) plays as well. The majority of my plays will be for $300.00 and the vigorish involved to make the $300.00 due to the length of the season. In other words I look at the baseball season as a marathon, and not a sprint. This is also due to the fact that on a given day I will make a lot of my first inning wagers on maybe 11 games or so sometimes. On those days I will more than likely not make a pick at all, and just play the system since I play them for $300.00 a pop. I make my real money on the system, and not the daily plays.

cocknocker · 04-06-09, 12:20 AM

Originally posted by whatisit

Hey CK, I was looking over your information for the starting pitchers records when heavy favorites and was wondering if those stats apply to April games too? Or do you not look at those until a month or two into the season when the players begin to find their rhythm.

I would look at those plays at any given time, but let's just say that this is opening weekend and the set up is aready on as evidenced by the Braves beating the Phillies right out of the box. Baseball is as unpredictable as any sport can be. Those stats apply to any game on any day. I side stepped some of those matchups in the name of reverse line movement for the Padres play. But believe me, you will see me sticking closely to that information. The Padres are a slap hitting team, so I played them for the full game and not the first half of the game which is more to my liking.

cocknocker · 04-06-09, 12:21 AM

I will let the board know when I decide to play a game HEAVY as always.

whatisit · 04-06-09, 12:26 AM

Originally posted by cocknocker

I would look at those plays at any given time, but let's just say that this is opening weekend and the set up is aready on as evidenced by the Braves beating the Phillies right out of the box. Baseball is as unpredictable as any sport can be. Those stats apply to any game on any day. I side stepped some of those matchups in the name of reverse line movement for the Padres play. But believe me, you will see me sticking closely to that information. The Padres are a slap hitting team, so I played them for the full game and not the first half of the game which is more to my liking.

All right thanks for the help. This is gonna be my first season playing baseball so gonna tail you and Dex til I learn how to cap on my own...

Jshap1515 · 04-06-09, 12:53 AM

Nationals @ Marlins -1.5

Ricky Nolasco is a stud pitcher and will record massive strikeout numbers vs the free swinging Nats (Dunn, Dukes). Watch Marlins win this around 4-1.

Bookie-Rookie · 04-06-09, 01:01 AM

Hey CK,

This is my very first post on this website PERIOD! I've been following you on the NBA thread and i'm a huge fan...You, Dex, Repski...are my favs to name a few....anyway..i'm looking forward to learning from you guys in MLB wagers.

I have a question though (rookie question)...when I tried to make a wager on SD Padres -140 on the ML, BETUS gave me an option for Action, Jake Peavy, or Kuroda...what do these choices mean? and how do I play them?

Once again...I look forward to gel-ing with you fine Gents!

Bookie-Rookie · 04-06-09, 01:03 AM

Oh Yeah....cant forget Pho3nix and roagbettor!...you guys ROCK!...

FreeMason · 04-06-09, 01:24 AM

Ck, I'm a fellow Dodgers backer myself, and I gotta admit, Peavy owns them... look for that to continue. I think I'll be playing Jays/Tigers under 7.5.

Anyways, I'm looking forward to learning as much about baseball wagering this summer as I have on hoops this past winter, thanx for the information from yourself and everyone else on the thread.

The_Kid · 04-06-09, 01:32 AM

WTF? Sabathia is already a -200 road favorite on Opening Day? I know Guthrie struggled in spring training but he's not that bad of a pitcher. Anyone taking a chance on +170 for the Orioles?

Better yet, the RL for the Orioles is at +102. I might just take a stab at that.

AzNDooM · 04-06-09, 01:38 AM

Im playing my games on First half morning as follows:
Cleveland -1.57 (Head to Head)
Boston +1.35 (Mid-line) (Heavy)
Arizona +1.25 (Mid-Line)

Depending on how these games are going will play
NY Yankees -1.54 (Mid-line)
San Diego +1.65 (Mid-Line) (Heavy)

Late games will finish up
Minnesota Under 7.5 (Heavy)

NOTE: Taxing picks from CK of course and Dexter.

cs11787 · 04-06-09, 01:53 AM

CK
Is the Sand Diego line going down? The highest i see right now is -145 and the lowest is -126.

danrman · 04-06-09, 01:55 AM

cliff lee has an era above 6 vs. texas... millwood sucked last year.. this is a key year for him and the rangers are goin to be better this year... lee started out as a fav. in the 135's and now he's only a 123 fav. at 5 dimes... it should be going up not coming down if he was going to win.. take the rangers.. lee at that small price is just to good to be true and it will be 50 degress w/ a 25 mph nothwest wind making it feel like the 40's

danrman · 04-06-09, 02:13 AM

also going to do a parlay using bost,balt,sd.... tailing dex and ck w/ another pick of my own in the parlay.. going to play sd straight later if things are going my way.. also you might want to buy some verizon and at&t if ya like... if you own them at the end of the biz. day you get 6% on your money.. happy opening day

wangichu · 04-06-09, 05:10 AM

i'm liking the reds to make some waves this year, and especially expecting a bounce back season from aaron harang. He lost weight in the offseason and reuped his game. Good value on Cincy in this series and the mets always come in with a slightly excessive hype.

CIN +1.5 (-105, probably safer than ML... rather win than be greedy to start the season)

zambrano historically struggles a bit on opening day and has regressed in recent years and oswalt is ready for a bit of a bounce back, that's some good returns on oswalt at home.

HOU ML

really high on the fins this year, especially nolasco. Nats counter with lannan? wow... poor nats.

FLA -1.5

ragiche · 04-06-09, 06:06 AM

Hello guys(Ck,Dex)! Nice to be here again.Already free,and as amatter of fact my aunt is already healthy and well.no,nba tomorrow,so,I like to share my plays.NCAA-Mich.+7.5.And for MLB-Oak+1.5,NyY-1.5,Tor-1.5.Also playing CK's Sd and Dex's Bos.All playing my basic wager of $500 each.So,good luck guys.

jellobiafra · 04-06-09, 06:18 AM

Originally posted by Bookie-Rookie

I have a question though (rookie question)...when I tried to make a wager on SD Padres -140 on the ML, BETUS gave me an option for Action, Jake Peavy, or Kuroda...what do these choices mean? and how do I play them?

You have the option of specifying starting pitchers or betting on the game regardless of who starts. If you specify a pitcher (or both pitchers) and that pitcher is scratched before the game, your bet is canceled. If you bet "action" then the wager is on no matter who ends up starting the game.

coolmil · 04-06-09, 07:18 AM

5 inning ML

Can someone tell me how to find 5 inning ML at greek? Thanks!!

JayRow · 04-06-09, 09:02 AM

Originally posted by cocknocker

Welcome members to another wonderful baseball season. I make only one or two plays a day seperately from my system, and today is no exception.
San Diego-135

"Your System" meaning the 1st inning system or is there another system as well?

Thanks,
JR

cocknocker · 04-06-09, 09:30 AM

Originally posted by wangichu

i'm liking the reds to make some waves this year, and especially expecting a bounce back season from aaron harang. He lost weight in the offseason and reuped his game. Good value on Cincy in this series and the mets always come in with a slightly excessive hype.

CIN +1.5 (-105, probably safer than ML... rather win than be greedy to start the season)

zambrano historically struggles a bit on opening day and has regressed in recent years and oswalt is ready for a bit of a bounce back, that's some good returns on oswalt at home.

HOU ML

really high on the fins this year, especially nolasco. Nats counter with lannan? wow... poor nats.

FLA -1.5

Excellent call on the reds, wangy! I almost pulled the trigger on that one, but I didn't see any reverse movement. Otherwise it qualifies for one of my plays with the Mets of all teams being more than -150. Santana had a horrid year against the big chalk last year

cocknocker · 04-06-09, 09:33 AM

Originally posted by coolmil

Can someone tell me how to find 5 inning ML at greek? Thanks!!

Call them up and have them help navigate you to it. It's in the props area on the bottom of the screen with the title of the game. And with Greek it's the first 4.5 innings, not 5.

cocknocker · 04-06-09, 09:36 AM

Originally posted by ragiche

Hello guys(Ck,Dex)! Nice to be here again.Already free,and as amatter of fact my aunt is already healthy and well.no,nba tomorrow,so,I like to share my plays.NCAA-Mich.+7.5.And for MLB-Oak+1.5,NyY-1.5,Tor-1.5.Also playing CK's Sd and Dex's Bos.All playing my basic wager of $500 each.So,good luck guys.

$500 is a bit high for baseball, ragiche. Especially on plays that aren't premium. Play the system that I have set forth and shorten your daily wagers because you don't want to put up $500 on daily games and then turn around and put up wagers on 11 other games. That's a lot of money hanging in the ballads. Now I would be the last person to tell anyone what to do with their money. But I am very good at money management, which is how I stumbled across my baseball system to begin with. Save yourself for that. You will reap big benefits if you do

ragiche · 04-06-09, 09:52 AM

Ok,Ck.I will follow your suggestion.Because you are my mentor.I will lower down my wager as you said.I will bet my games at $100 each.That will save me alot for today.I'm not a high roller ,i only bet like this because i follow my feelings.But what do you think of mich.+7.5.CK?

coolmil · 04-06-09, 09:53 AM

Originally posted by cocknocker

Call them up and have them help navigate you to it. It's in the props area on the bottom of the screen with the title of the game. And with Greek it's the first 4.5 innings, not 5.

Thanks, I appreciate all your posts. I have learn a lot.

Mriswith · 04-06-09, 10:47 AM

Originally posted by cocknocker

Excellent call on the reds, wangy! I almost pulled the trigger on that one, but I didn't see any reverse movement. Otherwise it qualifies for one of my plays with the Mets of all teams being more than -150. Santana had a horrid year against the big chalk last year

Hi,

been lurking for some time now ( not posting so far not due to the lack of want, but still trying to grasp enough to be able to contribute and still not feeling up to it, so plz bear w/ me ).

CIN ML movement :
141 to 140 ( matchbook)
148 to 139 ( pinnacle )
148 to 136 ( betonline )
148 to 142 ( bet365 )
150 to 140 ( bookmaker )
150 to 131 ( greek )

with 84% money ( vegasinsider ) on Mets - that'd be enough RLM to push a lean to a bet in this case ?

Generally, how much would u guys want a line to move to call it siginificant ?

rgz,
Mris

SportsChic · 04-06-09, 10:52 AM

I was hoping you could comment on my question regarding the Reds and Mets Run Line bet. I am thinking of putting a bet in for the Reds +1.5 runs due to my belief that the line seems a bit odd. It currently has the Mets run line at a +105 and the Reds at -125. With ace Santana on the mound with a more potent offense behind him, wouldnt you think that this should be a bit higher? Im thinking bookies want the public to pound the mets runline only to have this stay a close game. Can you please give me your thoughts on this? CK, I have been following your threads and have much respect for you...good luck babes

Thank you!

PBVETTE · 04-06-09, 10:54 AM

what is OMG mean

cocknocker · 04-06-09, 11:05 AM

PBVETTE- OMG means OH MY GOD

SportsChic,

The reds have movedthe line dramatically. I think that the Reds+1.5 is an excellent call!

ragiche, I am also playing Michigan State+7.5 as well as the moneyline!

cocknocker · 04-06-09, 11:07 AM

Well it's harvest time for one of my buddies ladies and gentlemen, so i am going underground for most of the day, as it is a pre-requisite in order to have him help me in 2 weeks when my crop is finished. I will be back to check in on things much later on.

SportsChic · 04-06-09, 11:08 AM

Thanks CK babe..Im on it...that was my original strong lean..