System Integrity?

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  • floridagolfer
    SBR MVP
    • 12-19-08
    • 2757

    #2661
    Where I go for my odds, I see a three-way tie at -210: St. Louis, Atlanta and the Mets. I generally break my ties by going with the team that the public has made the highest fav.
    Comment
    • dreamjob
      SBR MVP
      • 05-21-09
      • 1963

      #2662
      Thank god boston won last night to end the chase. GL guys I am done for the year myself.
      Comment
      • mminkovski
        SBR MVP
        • 06-22-07
        • 1077

        #2663
        Cubs are about to sweep Cardinals and are still biggest dog of the day?!? Go figure....
        Comment
        • slapshot
          SBR MVP
          • 10-27-07
          • 1194

          #2664
          cardinals opened at -210, they are our play for wednesday
          Comment
          • floridagolfer
            SBR MVP
            • 12-19-08
            • 2757

            #2665
            Originally posted by mminkovski
            Cubs are about to sweep Cardinals and are still biggest dog of the day?!? Go figure....
            This is idiotic. Cardinals have now lost eight straight series to losing teams. I think it was just last week that I was saying to myself, "Well, Wainwright and Carpenter aren't going to lose on back-to-back nights." And here I am again, saying the same thing.

            I'm riding out the system for one more win and then I'm packing it in on the '10 season. The last month has just been unbelievably rocky.
            Comment
            • mminkovski
              SBR MVP
              • 06-22-07
              • 1077

              #2666
              Philly covered last night. Maybe it's time to stop the system for 2010.
              Comment
              • slapshot
                SBR MVP
                • 10-27-07
                • 1194

                #2667
                personally i didn't have the chance to wait for a line on philly........i'm going at again today...........'c' bet on mets
                Comment
                • DustyDiamond
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 12-19-09
                  • 772

                  #2668
                  I'm going to track this system during the hockey system, pick the fav and play the puck line. I think it I would get similar results
                  Comment
                  • floridagolfer
                    SBR MVP
                    • 12-19-08
                    • 2757

                    #2669
                    Originally posted by DustyDiamond
                    I'm going to track this system during the hockey system, pick the fav and play the puck line. I think it I would get similar results
                    Somewhere on this thread, I think I recall someone coming up with the same idea, doing some testing on the theory and then coming back and stating that it did not work. But feel free to give it a whirl.
                    Comment
                    • slapshot
                      SBR MVP
                      • 10-27-07
                      • 1194

                      #2670
                      Originally posted by DustyDiamond
                      I'm going to track this system during the hockey system, pick the fav and play the puck line. I think it I would get similar results
                      i don't think it will work because hockey is a lower scoring game than baseball, lots of one goal games.........since nhl have accomplished to reach perfect parity with its salary cap nhl is great for betting the underdog.

                      however betting +goals on puckline with this system might turn out to be real expensive
                      Comment
                      • mminkovski
                        SBR MVP
                        • 06-22-07
                        • 1077

                        #2671
                        I remember testing similar for NFL - biggest favorite to cover the spread. Longest streak was 7 or 8 games both ways. I had data since 1970
                        Comment
                        • gamblingisfun
                          SBR Sharp
                          • 08-14-10
                          • 401

                          #2672
                          Biggest fave to cover spread in NFL sounds like a good plan if it only went to 7 or 8 games. The odds would probably be like -120 at the most right? With most being at -110. The chase would only be a little worse than this going a couple more games at the worst, but if you have the bankroll, I'd go for it.
                          Comment
                          • slapshot
                            SBR MVP
                            • 10-27-07
                            • 1194

                            #2673
                            i won't call it a season just yet, will see at least another series through..............................tod ay's play is philly 'a' level bet.....are the rest of you packin it in or continuing?
                            Comment
                            • floridagolfer
                              SBR MVP
                              • 12-19-08
                              • 2757

                              #2674
                              I'm going to reduce my per-series stake starting today and then call it a season on Sunday or the next win that follows.
                              Comment
                              • floridagolfer
                                SBR MVP
                                • 12-19-08
                                • 2757

                                #2675
                                Tampa Bay (-200 ML) is the play on Saturday.
                                Comment
                                • slapshot
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 10-27-07
                                  • 1194

                                  #2676
                                  tie race today sunday......philly and minnesota both opened at -190 at pinnacle, -200 at other books.

                                  i'm going with philly as they opened with a higher total.
                                  Comment
                                  • floridagolfer
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 12-19-08
                                    • 2757

                                    #2677
                                    Doesn't matter which you went with, both were losers. C'mon, one more W and then I'm done for 2010.
                                    Comment
                                    • slapshot
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 10-27-07
                                      • 1194

                                      #2678
                                      minnesota is the play for monday.
                                      Comment
                                      • floridagolfer
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 12-19-08
                                        • 2757

                                        #2679
                                        Originally posted by slapshot
                                        minnesota is the play for monday.
                                        Yep, that's a winner and that's it for me in 2010. I'll play until the end of the season but at a highly reduced per-series stake . . . just for kicks, so to speak.

                                        I hope everyone managed to ride out the rough waters of the past month. Good luck to those playing the final two weeks of the season. To everyone else, thanks for the company; see you in 2011.
                                        Comment
                                        • BigMama
                                          SBR Sharp
                                          • 01-28-10
                                          • 439

                                          #2680
                                          Great day for all.....good luck
                                          Comment
                                          • slapshot
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 10-27-07
                                            • 1194

                                            #2681
                                            i will go at it for another few days...haven't made up my mind yet when i will call it a season.

                                            the play today is philly and halladay
                                            Comment
                                            • slapshot
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 10-27-07
                                              • 1194

                                              #2682
                                              philly delivered.........as the division winners are being identified now one after another i'm calling it a season.........we have seen weird streaks at the end of previous season in situations like this..............i'm done for the year.

                                              this system is fantastic if you use with caution..............enjoyed everyones company and contribution...........looking forward to next year already
                                              Comment
                                              • floridagolfer
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 12-19-08
                                                • 2757

                                                #2683
                                                For those still playing, Wednesday's pick is Detroit. Interesting . . . a game in which neither team has anything to play for.
                                                Comment
                                                • floridagolfer
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 12-19-08
                                                  • 2757

                                                  #2684
                                                  For players still involved through the end of the season, it looks like Thursday gives you quite a crap shoot. My site lists four games at virtually the same opening number: Milwaukee -136, Seattle -135, Cleveland -134, Yankees -133. Good luck making a decision on this one!
                                                  Comment
                                                  • slapshot
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 10-27-07
                                                    • 1194

                                                    #2685
                                                    not playing but recording results still for research purposes...........fishy lines yesterday......one source had milwaukee the other had cleveland tied with yanks.

                                                    in a situation like this when a line can't be confirmed by a second source there is really no right or wrong.

                                                    however going with covers which has been established as our source for lines, milwaukee was the play that was record and they won. ironically the other two teams would have been losing plays.

                                                    tampa opened as the biggest favorite today, there shouldn't be any controversy about that.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • floridagolfer
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 12-19-08
                                                      • 2757

                                                      #2686
                                                      Originally posted by slapshot
                                                      tampa opened as the biggest favorite today, there shouldn't be any controversy about that.

                                                      Correct. I'd suspect the Rays probably will be a popular choice before the weekend is over.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • allenc85
                                                        SBR Sharp
                                                        • 03-26-10
                                                        • 403

                                                        #2687
                                                        So how did it end up for the season? Wish I could have played...
                                                        Comment
                                                        • floridagolfer
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 12-19-08
                                                          • 2757

                                                          #2688
                                                          Originally posted by allenc85
                                                          So how did it end up for the season? Wish I could have played...
                                                          If you've played a five-game chase, I think the record is 77-1. It's 78-0 on a six-game chase and 76-2 on a four-game.

                                                          It's Tampa Bay again for Saturday.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • slapshot
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 10-27-07
                                                            • 1194

                                                            #2689
                                                            philly is recorded for sunday
                                                            Comment
                                                            • floridagolfer
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 12-19-08
                                                              • 2757

                                                              #2690
                                                              Don't yet see a line for the Philly game on Monday; Phils don't have anything sewn up yet, and with Halladay the scheduled starter, this game could be the one. Right now it's Tampa Bay (-195) at home vs. Baltimore.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • slapshot
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 10-27-07
                                                                • 1194

                                                                #2691
                                                                philly again today........halladay on the mound
                                                                Comment
                                                                • mminkovski
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 06-22-07
                                                                  • 1077

                                                                  #2692
                                                                  easy cover on the phillies 8:0
                                                                  and they clinched division title
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • do5000
                                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                                    • 06-06-08
                                                                    • 853

                                                                    #2693
                                                                    Originally posted by floridagolfer
                                                                    If you've played a five-game chase, I think the record is 77-1. It's 78-0 on a six-game chase and 76-2 on a four-game.

                                                                    It's Tampa Bay again for Saturday.
                                                                    thats skipping the first and last two weeks?
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • floridagolfer
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 12-19-08
                                                                      • 2757

                                                                      #2694
                                                                      Yeah . . . sorry about that. I think the Phillies last night completed the 90th series since opening day (actually, the day after since there was only one game on the day the season officially started).

                                                                      For those still participating, Tuesday's play is Tampa Bay and Price at home vs. Baltimore.

                                                                      Home field throughout the AL playoffs is still up for grabs, so Minnesota, the Yankees and Tampa Bay still have something to play for — not that it mattered last night.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • slapshot
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 10-27-07
                                                                        • 1194

                                                                        #2695
                                                                        clean easy tampa win.........i quit playing the system too early

                                                                        well......in this line of work these is no would have/should have.

                                                                        lots of lines missing early today...atlanta looks like the team to record, but we'll hold out till everything is in.
                                                                        Comment
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