Thoughts on Over/Under Win Totals

[SoonerGreg]

I'm seeing the Texas Rangers Over 73.5 as easy as it gets. They won 79 games last year with Kinsler missing 2.5 months. I see them as a slightly better than .500 team. Am I a homer or does this seemlike a great bet?

[DFoster]

I like it as well. I think Cruz could be a huge offensive presence this year along with the mid season additons of Feliz and Holland. Chris Davis has the potential to mash 35+ HR this year with a starting spot. Their pitching is obviously terrilbe, but this should be a better all around team in 2009.

[donjuan]

You are a massive homer. See: PECOTA.

[Pasta747]

Not sure if this will actually help anyone but i came across this info today.

Not sure who this guy is or if he is any good.

[seaborneq]

Don't waste your money on Texas, take Seattle instead. They won't be as bad as they were last year. Putrid.

[Regul8er]

Toronto UNDER 80.5
Who expects this team to be a .500 team in the AL East?? With a helathy rotation maybe, but remember people after Halladay, their starters are Litsch, Clement, Purcey. This team may not win 70

[SoonerGreg]

What do you guys think about the Dodgers over 82.5? The NL West is terrible and they also just signed Bonds.

[tyler36]

I think the BlueJays under 80.5 is easy as it gets, they aren't a very good ball club, and your right after Halladay their pitching drops off big time. I just don't see this team even coming close to .500 by the end of the season, and i'm a jays fan

[sallysnax8]

bonds? april fools? i cant find anything on that......btw Oakland over 82.5 wins count on that

[Doug]

By Brian Steinberg

Washington over 71½ -1.26 PINNACLE

If you’ve been a reader of this site over the years then you’re fully aware that I never use the words “lock” or “cinch” but man, this is about as close to a sure thing as I’ve ever posted in the last seven years or so. Not only will the Nats crush this number, they actually have a chance to win the division. That’s right, they have a chance to win the division. The Nats biggest problem last season was scoring runs but they’ll score a ton more this season. In a recent spring training game, Manny Acta's first five hitters were Nick Johnson, Elijah Dukes, Ryan Zimmerman, Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham. The oldest two are 30. Four have had seasons with 23 or more homers; Dukes clearly could. Lastings Milledge and Jesús Flores, both good hitting prospects, didn't play. Austin Kearns, one year removed from being considered a pro's pro, can't get mentioned here. Neither can Dmitri Young, a career .292 hitter. "Last year, we never had enough pieces for a [good] lineup," Kearns said. "Now, we have extra ones." Ryan Zimmerman and Elijah Dukes could both have monster years with hitters around them. As for the pitching, well, it just might be the best in the business. Daniel Cabrera came over from Baltimore and everyone knows he has some of the nastiest stuff in the league. With the right guidance he could easily be a 15-game winner or better, especially in this park. Scott Olsen came over from Florida and he, too, is a quality starter. Then there’s Jordan Zimmerman, one of the best pitching prospects in some time. The kid can downright bring it and he’s been phenomenal in the spring. In one of his first innings, Zimmermann faced Carlos Guillén, Magglio Ordóñez and Miguel Cabrera and, on eight pitches, seven of them strikes, fanned the first two, then got a first-pitch dribbler to shortstop. John Lannan and Shairon Martis round out the rotation and both are extremely talented. In fact, Lannan is the opening day pitcher after throwing 182 frames last season and allowing just 172 hits for a BAA of .252. The pen is decent, as is their bench and with a new attitude, new staff and coaches, these Nationals are going to very competitive indeed and even if everything goes wrong they’ll still get well over 71 wins. Play: Washington Nationals over 71½ -1.26 (Risking 5.02 units to win 4).

[okchess]

WAS over 67.5 @ 1.68

https://www.centrebet.com

[EdV38]

I agree with Texas at over 73.5. The fact that they have no pitching didn't stop them from winning 79 last year. And now their hitting is even better with a full year of Davis, Kinsler and Cruz. Francisco I think is a pretty decent closer and they'll be in a lot of tight, high scoring games that change leads late so if you can find bet lines on him, do it.

Tigers under 83.5, Marlins over 77.5, White sox over 78.5, Yankees under 94.5, Twins over 83.5, Jays over 78.5 were my other picks.

Mets, Cubs, Dodgers, Angels, Twins, Red Sox to win their respective divisions.

I think what people are forgetting is that the Jays were pretty bad last year until they got Cito Gaston as their manager back and their hitters all of a sudden remembered how to hit. That was after they already lost Marcum and McGowan to injuries and they went something like 10 or 15 games over 500. Burnett was winning because the offense was scoring 5+ runs for him every game, not because he was pitching consistently well. For the past few years this team loses pitchers to injuries like crazy but as soon as one goes down two mysteriously come out of no where to become serviceables replacements. Plus they have that kid Snider who everyone seems to be talking about so if he can be this years Carlos Quentin the offense is significantly improved.

Detroit is an absolute mess of a team. I don't care about their good offense, I view Texas' offense as superior with equally terrible pitching so why both teams aren't in the same win range is beyond me. Verlander their "ace" seems to be declining rapidly, and if a pitcher like Porcello can make the team from Single A that should be an indication of how desperate they are. I never heard of a pitcher making the jump directly from single A. Plus I think their division has 2 underrated teams in the Twins and White Sox, and two moderately underrated teams in the Royal and Indians.

The Marlins will have a very potent offense IMO. Maybin is leading off and that kid is lighning fast so if he can keep his OBP up, and all indications from spring is that he will, Ramirez and the rest will see a ton of fastballs. I'm a little iffy on their starting pitching beyond Nolasco but I think the offense will make up for it.