MLB totals Simple but Genius

[J.M. Disciple]

As far as I see it, the only way this system makes money is if on average these are +EV bets.

If the market is u7 -115 o7 -105 do you really think that it will be under more than 53.5% of the time just because the market is shaded that way. When the books take such their 10% edge, which is pretty big, why would they be systematically wrong with every total?

My guess would be if anything there would be more value on the other side as my feeling is squares would prefer the -115, but I have no evidence and doubt it would be significant.

I understand what you are saying, but you must understand this system is not based on flat betting. I no for sure there is not a single bet you can make long run that will be +EV by flat betting over say a decade. It might work for an entire season or two seasons, but you are really pushing it if you think this will work over a decade. All comes down to how you manage your money and bet sizes for each one. If you read my first post I breakdown how this system works even at 50%.

I am now going to air bet this system the rest of the month to see how it would of done and so people can see this type of money management does work with the proper bankroll of say 200u. Which is standard for most systems.

GOod Luck and thanks for the advice.

[J.M. Disciple]

daily update:
+$57.44
record: 7-4

Overall
Record: 61-55-6(52%)
Profit: -$85.47(-8.5u aprox)
Peak: $70.23

Go figure the one day I air bet the system starts to bounce back. Tomorrow will be risking 3u again. Will post in the morning.

[J.M. Disciple]

Los Angeles Dodgers / Colorado Rockies / 9/17/2014 12:10:00 PM (Full Game)
Points Totaling Over 11 -115 Risking $30.00 to win $26.09

C. Frias Must start J. De La Rosa Must start
San Francisco Giants / Arizona Diamondbacks / 9/17/2014 12:40:00 PM (Full Game)
Points Totaling Under 7 ½ -120 Risking $30.00 to win $25.00

A. Chafin Must start M. Bumgarner Must start
Toronto Blue Jays / Baltimore Orioles / 9/17/2014 4:05:00 PM (Full Game)
Points Totaling Under 8 -115 Risking $30.00 to win $26.09

B. Norris Must start J.A. Happ Must start
Boston Red Sox / Pittsburgh Pirates / 9/17/2014 4:05:00 PM (Full Game)
Points Totaling Under 7 -125 Risking $30.00 to win $24.00

F. Liriano Must start C. Buchholz Must start
Washington Nationals / Atlanta Braves / 9/17/2014 4:10:00 PM (Full Game)
Points Totaling Under 7 -125 Risking $30.00 to win $24.00

A. Wood Must start B Treinen Must start
Miami Marlins / New York Mets / 9/17/2014 4:10:00 PM (Full Game)
Points Totaling Over 6 ½ -120 Risking $30.00 to win $25.00

H. Alvarez Must start D. Gee Must start
New York Yankees / Tampa Bay Rays / 9/17/2014 4:10:00 PM (Full Game)
Points Totaling Under 6 ½ -125 Risking $30.00 to win $24.00

A. Cobb Must start B. McCarthy Must start
Cincinnati Reds / Chicago Cubs / 9/17/2014 5:05:00 PM (Full Game)
Points Totaling Under 7 ½ -120 Risking $30.00 to win $25.00

K. Hendricks Must start D. Corcino Must start
Cleveland Indians / Houston Astros / 9/17/2014 5:10:00 PM (Full Game)
Points Totaling Under 8 -125 Risking $30.00 to win $24.00

B. Oberholtzer Must start C. Carrasco Must start
Chicago White Sox / Kansas City Royals / 9/17/2014 5:10:00 PM (Full Game)
Points Totaling Under 6 ½ -115 Risking $30.00 to win $26.09

Y. Ventura Must start C. Sale Must start
Seattle Mariners / Los Angeles Angels / 9/17/2014 7:05:00 PM (Full Game)
Points Totaling Under 8 -115 Risking $30.00 to win $26.09

C. Wilson Must start J. Paxton Must start
Texas Rangers / Oakland Athletics / 9/17/2014 7:05:00 PM (Full Game)
Points Totaling Over 6 ½ -120 Risking $30.00 to win $25.00

D. Holland Must start J. Samardzija Must start
Philadelphia Phillies / San Diego Padres / 9/17/2014 7:10:00 PM (Full Game)
Points Totaling Under 6 ½ -125 Risking $30.00 to win $24.00

E. Stults Must start C. Hamels Must start

[J.M. Disciple]

wow what a day!

record: 10-3!
Profit: $160.27

Overall
Record: 71-58-6(60%)
Profit: $74.80 (+7.5u aprox)
Peak: $74.80

I thought the variance would last a little longer, but seems to bounce back with two good days.
Might not be able to post tomorrow. Have work super early and not going to get much sleep.