2009 MLB Preview: Pittsburgh Pirates
The losing continues for the Pittsburgh Pirates in '09
For most teams, finishing fifth in their division would be an embarrassment. For the Pittsburgh Pirates, however, finishing fifth in the NL Central would be an accomplishment.
It’s funny how life works out sometimes. One of the teams I didn’t like as a kid/teen back in the 60s was the Pittsburgh Pirates. It had nothing to do with one of their fans welshing on a bet like my disfavor for the Cubs grew. And it had nothing to do with any of their players as I was a huge fan of Roberto Clemente, Bill Mazeroski, Smoky Burgess, Willie Stargell and many other Bucs.
Plain and simple, it was because the Pirates kicked the snot out of my Colt 45s/Astros, especially when Houston would travel to the Keystone State. During the first seven years (1962-68) that a Houston team took to the NL fields, the Pirates ran up an 83-42 W-L record against the Colts and ‘Stros. Granted, this was an expansion team that H-Town started with in ’62, so you’d expect them to struggle against an established team such as the Pirates.
But then, it’s not exactly like those were super Pittsburgh teams in that span. Thanks to the 1967-68 seasons, Houston held their own at home against the Pirates in that span, winning 31 and losing 31. But at old Forbes Field? That was another story as the Bucs slapped Houston around with a 52-11 record.
But then I happened to visit Pittsburgh and absolutely fell in love with the city and its populace. Blue collar folks, genuine people. They’ll get in your eye like an onion if they disagree with you, but turn around the next instant and buy you a cold and crispy mug of Iron City. And it’s those fans, the diehard, old-time Pirates fans, who I truly feel sorry for given the state of their franchise since 1992 with their best season a 78-83 finish in 1999.
They won’t even sniff 78 wins this season as they look to avoid their fifth consecutive 90-loss campaign. Stock up on IC, Pittsburgh, it’s going to be another long season.
OFFENSE / DEFENSE
The Pirates didn’t suffer from total suckage on offense in 2008, but they weren’t far from it. Pittsburgh was a middling team in scoring, ranking ninth in the NL with 735 trips across the dish. They also ranked ninth in batting average (.258) and didn’t strike out a bunch, fifth in the league for fewest whiffs with 1,039. Why, if they had the 1908 Cubs pitching staff, they might have even won 81 games.
Problem is they had those numbers with Jason Bay and Xavier Nady in the lineup for more than half a season each. Neither Bay nor Nady will be there this summer and unless Three-Finger Brown, Orval Overall and Ed Reulbach have been cryopreserved and are being brought back from the dead, this team is going to struggle to win games.
Nate McLouth will be back, however, and is coming off the first 20-20 campaign for Pittsburgh since Jason Bay banged 32 and swiped 21 bases in 2005. Having Bay and Nady in the lineup last year when McLouth hit 26 HR and stole 23 bases certainly helped him, so it will be interesting to see how he does this year with those two missing from the Pirates lineup.
With McLouth in center, the plans are to put speedy Nyjer Morgan in left and Brandon Moss in right. That could change, however. Morgan is struggling this spring and the Bucs could move Craig Monroe or Eric Hinske into the LF job. Moss, part of the compensation Pittsburgh received from Boston in the three-team deal last July that sent Bay to the Red Sox and Manny Ramirez to the Dodgers, has been slowed by a thumb injury. It’s considered minor, but if he can’t go come April the Pirates would start Hinske in right.
Then again, Hinske is battling injuries of his own so far this spring. So it could open the door for Steven Pearce, one of the franchise’s top power-hitting prospects, to land an Opening Day job. Oh yeah, Pearce has a strained calf and that could lead to Jeff Salazar making the club out of spring. At some point this season, look for both Pearce and Andrew McCutchen to be part of the big league roster. Got all of that?
Behind the plate will be Ryan Doumit following a strong 2008, his first as a full-timer. Having split time between first base, catching and the outfield in a reserve role the previous three seasons, Doumit swatted 15 homers while batting .318 with 69 RBI as Pittsburgh’s primary backstop in ’08. Jason Jarramillo has the best shot at being his backup this season.
The infield starts with the LaRoche Brothers at the corners. Adam returns at first after another decent season in which he belted 25 homers, second on the team, and drove home 85 runs, also second. Andy will be at third after coming from the Dodgers as part of the Manny/Bay trade last July, and has looked overmatched the last few seasons when he’s been given a look at the MLB level.
The middle of the infield will find familiar faces Freddy Sanchez at second and Jack Wilson at short.
Pittsburgh has some extra depth they didn’t have a year ago with the versatile Hinske plus Ramon Vazquez, a pickup from the Rangers and able to play all over the infield. There’s also a crowd of possibilities for manager John Russell to select from.
PITCHING
This was easily the worst mound in the Senior Circuit in 2008, and while up is the only direction the staff can go for Russell and pitching coach Joe Kerrigan, there’s no reason to expect a huge improvement this campaign from a very young group overall. Bucs pitchers posted the NL’s worst ERA last season, 5.10, issued the most walks (657), ranked next-to-last in strikeouts (963) and served up 176 home runs which ranked 13th in the NL.
Paul Maholm qualifies as the ace of the rotation and deserved better than a 9-9 record last season. If he could pitch only against Houston and St. Louis all season, he’d be a Cy Young candidate. Pittsburgh was 4-1 in Maholm’s five assignments vs. the Astros and Cards in 2008, with the lefty posting a 2.38 ERA in nearly 37 innings of work.
Following Maholm in the rotation should be righthander Ian Snell and southpaw Zach Duke. Snell took a step back after having decent 2006-07 numbers; Duke’s numbers weren’t all that bad once you discount a 5-game stretch in July when the Pirates went winless in his five starts and his ERA was over 11.00 in the span.
The last two slots in the starting order are still up in the air as righthanders Jeff Karstens and Ross Ohlendorf plus lefthander Tom Gorzelanny battle for jobs. This could come down to whether or not the Pirates want three lefties in the rotation at the same time, and so far Gorzelanny hasn’t really given them a reason to go that way.
Matt Capps is back in the closer’s role and has the stuff to post a 40-save season if the Pirates ever give him enough leads to protect. Capps missed about seven weeks with a shoulder injury last summer, but appears healthy so far this spring.
Trying to bridge the gap from starter to Capps this year are four viable relief candidates. John Grabow is most likely to assume the primary setup role, with the left-right combination of Sean Burnett and Tyler Yates also in the 7th- and 8th-inning mix.
Keep an eye on Craig Hansen, yet another part of Pittsburgh’s compensation in the Manny/Bay deal. He should begin in a middle relief, mop-up role but could eventually pitch his way into a setup job.
SCHEDULE
Returning to the scene of the crime, the MLB scheduling crime, that is, the Pirates are no different than any other NL Central team with their skewed slate. Let me know when you see the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Cubs and/or Dodgers play 11 extra road games before the All-Star Game.
In the five simulations I ran, Pittsburgh rolled in with win totals of 69, 68, 62, 71 and 69. That averages 67.8 wins which is right on their 67-95 record from last year. The Greek has posted their total at 69½ with the Over at +120 and the Under -140.
The betting odds at the same shop have Pittsburgh as part of the Field in the NL Central at +545. Over at 5Dimes, the Pirates are +4000 to win the NL Central.
For most teams, finishing fifth in their division would be an embarrassment. For the Pittsburgh Pirates, however, finishing fifth in the NL Central would be an accomplishment.
It’s funny how life works out sometimes. One of the teams I didn’t like as a kid/teen back in the 60s was the Pittsburgh Pirates. It had nothing to do with one of their fans welshing on a bet like my disfavor for the Cubs grew. And it had nothing to do with any of their players as I was a huge fan of Roberto Clemente, Bill Mazeroski, Smoky Burgess, Willie Stargell and many other Bucs.
Plain and simple, it was because the Pirates kicked the snot out of my Colt 45s/Astros, especially when Houston would travel to the Keystone State. During the first seven years (1962-68) that a Houston team took to the NL fields, the Pirates ran up an 83-42 W-L record against the Colts and ‘Stros. Granted, this was an expansion team that H-Town started with in ’62, so you’d expect them to struggle against an established team such as the Pirates.
But then, it’s not exactly like those were super Pittsburgh teams in that span. Thanks to the 1967-68 seasons, Houston held their own at home against the Pirates in that span, winning 31 and losing 31. But at old Forbes Field? That was another story as the Bucs slapped Houston around with a 52-11 record.
But then I happened to visit Pittsburgh and absolutely fell in love with the city and its populace. Blue collar folks, genuine people. They’ll get in your eye like an onion if they disagree with you, but turn around the next instant and buy you a cold and crispy mug of Iron City. And it’s those fans, the diehard, old-time Pirates fans, who I truly feel sorry for given the state of their franchise since 1992 with their best season a 78-83 finish in 1999.
They won’t even sniff 78 wins this season as they look to avoid their fifth consecutive 90-loss campaign. Stock up on IC, Pittsburgh, it’s going to be another long season.
OFFENSE / DEFENSE
The Pirates didn’t suffer from total suckage on offense in 2008, but they weren’t far from it. Pittsburgh was a middling team in scoring, ranking ninth in the NL with 735 trips across the dish. They also ranked ninth in batting average (.258) and didn’t strike out a bunch, fifth in the league for fewest whiffs with 1,039. Why, if they had the 1908 Cubs pitching staff, they might have even won 81 games.
Problem is they had those numbers with Jason Bay and Xavier Nady in the lineup for more than half a season each. Neither Bay nor Nady will be there this summer and unless Three-Finger Brown, Orval Overall and Ed Reulbach have been cryopreserved and are being brought back from the dead, this team is going to struggle to win games.
Nate McLouth will be back, however, and is coming off the first 20-20 campaign for Pittsburgh since Jason Bay banged 32 and swiped 21 bases in 2005. Having Bay and Nady in the lineup last year when McLouth hit 26 HR and stole 23 bases certainly helped him, so it will be interesting to see how he does this year with those two missing from the Pirates lineup.
With McLouth in center, the plans are to put speedy Nyjer Morgan in left and Brandon Moss in right. That could change, however. Morgan is struggling this spring and the Bucs could move Craig Monroe or Eric Hinske into the LF job. Moss, part of the compensation Pittsburgh received from Boston in the three-team deal last July that sent Bay to the Red Sox and Manny Ramirez to the Dodgers, has been slowed by a thumb injury. It’s considered minor, but if he can’t go come April the Pirates would start Hinske in right.
Then again, Hinske is battling injuries of his own so far this spring. So it could open the door for Steven Pearce, one of the franchise’s top power-hitting prospects, to land an Opening Day job. Oh yeah, Pearce has a strained calf and that could lead to Jeff Salazar making the club out of spring. At some point this season, look for both Pearce and Andrew McCutchen to be part of the big league roster. Got all of that?
Behind the plate will be Ryan Doumit following a strong 2008, his first as a full-timer. Having split time between first base, catching and the outfield in a reserve role the previous three seasons, Doumit swatted 15 homers while batting .318 with 69 RBI as Pittsburgh’s primary backstop in ’08. Jason Jarramillo has the best shot at being his backup this season.
The infield starts with the LaRoche Brothers at the corners. Adam returns at first after another decent season in which he belted 25 homers, second on the team, and drove home 85 runs, also second. Andy will be at third after coming from the Dodgers as part of the Manny/Bay trade last July, and has looked overmatched the last few seasons when he’s been given a look at the MLB level.
The middle of the infield will find familiar faces Freddy Sanchez at second and Jack Wilson at short.
Pittsburgh has some extra depth they didn’t have a year ago with the versatile Hinske plus Ramon Vazquez, a pickup from the Rangers and able to play all over the infield. There’s also a crowd of possibilities for manager John Russell to select from.
PITCHING
This was easily the worst mound in the Senior Circuit in 2008, and while up is the only direction the staff can go for Russell and pitching coach Joe Kerrigan, there’s no reason to expect a huge improvement this campaign from a very young group overall. Bucs pitchers posted the NL’s worst ERA last season, 5.10, issued the most walks (657), ranked next-to-last in strikeouts (963) and served up 176 home runs which ranked 13th in the NL.
Paul Maholm qualifies as the ace of the rotation and deserved better than a 9-9 record last season. If he could pitch only against Houston and St. Louis all season, he’d be a Cy Young candidate. Pittsburgh was 4-1 in Maholm’s five assignments vs. the Astros and Cards in 2008, with the lefty posting a 2.38 ERA in nearly 37 innings of work.
Following Maholm in the rotation should be righthander Ian Snell and southpaw Zach Duke. Snell took a step back after having decent 2006-07 numbers; Duke’s numbers weren’t all that bad once you discount a 5-game stretch in July when the Pirates went winless in his five starts and his ERA was over 11.00 in the span.
The last two slots in the starting order are still up in the air as righthanders Jeff Karstens and Ross Ohlendorf plus lefthander Tom Gorzelanny battle for jobs. This could come down to whether or not the Pirates want three lefties in the rotation at the same time, and so far Gorzelanny hasn’t really given them a reason to go that way.
Matt Capps is back in the closer’s role and has the stuff to post a 40-save season if the Pirates ever give him enough leads to protect. Capps missed about seven weeks with a shoulder injury last summer, but appears healthy so far this spring.
Trying to bridge the gap from starter to Capps this year are four viable relief candidates. John Grabow is most likely to assume the primary setup role, with the left-right combination of Sean Burnett and Tyler Yates also in the 7th- and 8th-inning mix.
Keep an eye on Craig Hansen, yet another part of Pittsburgh’s compensation in the Manny/Bay deal. He should begin in a middle relief, mop-up role but could eventually pitch his way into a setup job.
SCHEDULE
Returning to the scene of the crime, the MLB scheduling crime, that is, the Pirates are no different than any other NL Central team with their skewed slate. Let me know when you see the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Cubs and/or Dodgers play 11 extra road games before the All-Star Game.
- Open with seven on road at Cardinals and Reds
- 23-28 (Home-Away) through May; 64-67 through August
- 39-50 (Home-Away) before All-Star Game
- Play White Sox and Cubs on road back-to-back series (May 22-27), catching a bit of a travel break on that trip
- 3-6 (Home-Away) vs. Rockies, 9-6 vs. AL Teams
- 38-39 (Home-Away) vs NL Central teams
In the five simulations I ran, Pittsburgh rolled in with win totals of 69, 68, 62, 71 and 69. That averages 67.8 wins which is right on their 67-95 record from last year. The Greek has posted their total at 69½ with the Over at +120 and the Under -140.
The betting odds at the same shop have Pittsburgh as part of the Field in the NL Central at +545. Over at 5Dimes, the Pirates are +4000 to win the NL Central.
Thanks for the early morning chuckle, Archie.
