Houston Fade & Chase

[jrs362]

Wanted to get back to tracking my Houston Fade & Chase bets. I did ok last year until they went on a short win streak at the same time as I lost a few other larger bets and didn't have enough BR left to continue. Lesson learned on BR management.

Basic gist is to bet against Houston on the ML, regardless of opponent or price. Always bet to win 1 unit. If your bet loses, you bet to win back what you've lost + 1 unit. If played correctly with appropriate unit sizes to sustain a short winning streak, the profit should be unit size * number of losses for the Astros.

My season so far is below. I missed the 4/6 game since I didn't realize it was an afternoon game so my bet on 4/6 was actually for the 4/7 game.

TICKET	ACCEPTED	TYPE	URisk	UWin	STATUS	DESCRIPTION
264407574 - 1	4/1/2014 8:06	Money Line	1.48	1.00	Loss	Baseball - 959 New York Yankees -148 for Game
264471299 - 1	4/2/2014 8:16	Money Line	3.67	2.48	Loss	Baseball - 925 New York Yankees -148 for Game
264542848 - 1	4/3/2014 8:03	Money Line	8.61	6.15	Win	Baseball - 969 New York Yankees -140 for Game
264610864 - 1	4/4/2014 9:40	Money Line	1.47	1.00	Win	Baseball - 925 Los Angeles Angels -147 for Game
264686173 - 1	4/5/2014 8:55	Money Line	1.53	1.00	Win	Baseball - 977 Los Angeles Angels -153 for Game
264831524 - 1	4/6/2014 17:56	Money Line	1.47	1.00	Win	Mobile - BASEBALL - 957 Los Angeles Angels -147 for GAME
264972923 - 1	4/8/2014 16:52	Money Line	1.94	1.00	Win	Mobile - BASEBALL - 916 Toronto Blue Jays -194 for GAME
265025189 - 1	4/9/2014 8:57	Money Line	1.85	1.00	Win	Baseball - 970 Toronto Blue Jays -185 for Game
265099352 - 1	4/10/2014 7:20	Money Line	2.22	1.00	Loss	Baseball - 916 Toronto Blue Jays -222 for Game
265158188 - 1	4/11/2014 7:47	Money Line	7.41	3.22	Win	Baseball - 968 Texas Rangers -230 for Game
265235989 - 1	4/12/2014 8:52	Money Line	1.50	1.00	Loss	Baseball - 922 Texas Rangers -150 for Game
265323497 - 1	4/13/2014 10:51	Money Line	3.95	2.50	Win	Baseball - 970 Texas Rangers -158 for Game
265477458 - 1	4/15/2014 7:48	Money Line	1.55	1.00	Win	Baseball - 975 Kansas City Royals -155 for Game
265530862 - 1	4/16/2014 7:17	Money Line	1.22	1.00	Pending	Baseball - 921 Kansas City Royals -122 for Game

Wagers	Win	Loss	Cancelled	Pending		Win %	Units Lost	Units Won	Profit/Loss
14	9	4	0	1		64.29%	8.87	17.87	9.00

[jrs362]

Yesterday was a win:

265530862 - 1

4/16/2014 7:17

Money Line

1.22

1.00

Win

Baseball - 921 Kansas City Royals -122 for Game

Today's Play:

265609337 - 1

4/17/2014 13:19

Money Line

1.29

1.00

Pending

Baseball - 969 Kansas City Royals -129 for Game

Year To Date:

Wagers	Win	Loss	Cancelled	Pending		Win %	Units Lost	Units Won	Profit/Loss
15	10	4	0	1		66.67%	8.87	18.87	10.00

[mcdonae101]

Be easier to bet on Houston ml and chase their wins, u get plus money basically every game so won't have to bet near as much. The way u r doing it compounds way too quickly, especially if Houston goes on win streak

[jrs362]

That's true, but I find it so hard to root for a bad team to win. I'd much rather be rooting for them to lose.

Anyway, another win tonight.

Last Play:

265609337 - 1

4/17/2014 13:19

Money Line

1.29

1.00

Win

Baseball - 969 Kansas City Royals -129 for Game

Year To Date:

Wagers	Win	Loss	Cancelled	Pending		Win %	Units Lost	Units Won	Profit/Loss
15	11	4	0	0		73.33%	8.87	19.87	11.00

[jrs362]

Today's Play:

265654924 - 1

4/18/2014 7:39

Money Line

2.04

1.00

Pending

Baseball - 928 Oakland Athletics -204 for Game

[jrs362]

Last Play:

265654924 - 1

4/18/2014 7:39

Money Line

2.04

1.00

Win

Baseball - 928 Oakland Athletics -204 for Game

Year To Date:

Wagers	Win	Loss	Cancelled	Pending		Win %	Units Lost	Units Won	Profit/Loss
16	12	4	0	0		75.00%	8.87	20.87	12.00

[jrs362]

Today:

4/19/2014 9:44

Money Line

2.12

1.00

Pending

Baseball - 974 Oakland Athletics -212 for Game

[jrs362]

Took a full 9 innings but Houston kept up their losing ways.

Wagers	Win	Loss	Cancelled	Pending		Win %	Units Lost	Units Won	Profit/Loss
17	13	4	0	0		76.47%	8.87	21.87	13.00

[jrs362]

Today:

4/20/2014 9:24

Money Line

2.34

1.00

Pending

Baseball - 926 Oakland Athletics -234 for Game

[jrs362]

Another winner.

Wagers	Win	Loss	Cancelled	Pending		Win %	Units Lost	Units Won	Profit/Loss
18	14	4	0	0		77.78%	8.87	22.87	14.00

[jrs362]

Tonight's play - Seattle

4/21/2014 16:28

Money Line

2.50

1.00

Pending

Baseball - 974 Seattle Mariners -250 for Game

[jrs362]

Lost last night. New day today:

4/22/2014 11:44

Money Line

5.91

3.50

Pending

Baseball - 928 Seattle Mariners -169 for Game

Year To Date:

Wagers	Win	Loss	Cancelled	Pending		Win %	Units Lost	Units Won	Profit/Loss
20	14	5	0	1		70.00%	11.37	22.87	11.50

[jrs362]

Sucks having to rely on a bad team to beat a bad team. On to the next one.

4/23/2014 7:14

Money Line

14.03

9.41

Pending

Baseball - 968 Seattle Mariners -149 for Game

Wagers	Win	Loss	Cancelled	Pending		Win %	Units Lost	Units Won	Profit/Loss
21	14	6	0	1		66.67%	17.28	22.87	5.59

[jrs362]

Got a bit lucky to get back in the win column today as Seattle scored 3 in the 9th to win but I'll take it.

Wagers	Win	Loss	Cancelled	Pending		Win %	Units Lost	Units Won	Profit/Loss
21	15	6	0	0		71.43%	17.28	32.28	15.00

[jrs362]

Play for 4/24:

4/24/2014 7:12 Money Line 1.58 1.00 Pending Baseball - 921 Oakland Athletics -158 for Game

[whtsox13]

5 hits and 5 errors for Houston through 6 innings. Solid baseball.

[jrs362]

5 hits and 5 errors for Houston through 6 innings. Solid baseball.

That's exactly why I cannot back them...ever, even if they have a lot of value like the series against Seattle.

Year-To-Date:

Wagers	Win	Loss	Cancelled	Pending		Win %	Units Lost	Units Won	Profit/Loss
23	16	6	0	1		69.57%	17.28	33.28	16.00

Today's Play:

4/25/2014 7:11

Money Line

1.76

1.00

Pending

Baseball - 973 Oakland Athletics -176 for Game

[Jimmy the Creep]

I'm tempted to go with the A's again today. I can feel a sweep coming.

[Ho Le Fuk]

start playing the RL for even more money. chances are when they lose, its by 2 or more.

[jrs362]

Another winner.

Today's Play:

4/26/2014 9:27

Money Line

1.51

1.00

Pending

Baseball - 923 Oakland Athletics -151 for Game

Year-To-Date:

Wagers	Win	Loss	Cancelled	Pending		Win %	Units Lost	Units Won	Profit/Loss
24	17	6	0	1		70.83%	17.28	34.28	17.00

[jrs362]

I'm mobile today. Play is Oakland to win 2.51 units.

Houston bullpen almost blew another lead last night allowing 3 runs before even recording an out. Let's hope Oakland jumps out to a lead today instead of playing catchup.

[jrs362]

Second consecutive win for the Astros hands me the second loss in a row. Day off for Houston today and then back at it against Washington on Tuesday.

Wagers	Win	Loss	Cancelled	Pending		Win %	Units Lost	Units Won	Profit/Loss
25	17	8	0	0		68.00%	22.61	34.28	11.67

[jrs362]

Today's play:

4/29/2014 7:08

Money Line

9.49

6.33

Pending

Baseball - 977 Washington Nationals -150 for Game

[jrs362]

And the Houston bullpen blows another one which is good for me.

4/30/2014 7:23

Money Line

1.53

1.00

Pending

Baseball - 929 Washington Nationals -153 for Game

YTD:

Wagers	Win	Loss	Cancelled	Pending		Win %	Units Lost	Units Won	Profit/Loss
27	18	8	0	1		66.67%	22.61	40.61	18.00

[SToth22]

I like this strategy. The chances of them winning 5 or 6 in a row are WAY LOWER than them winning 6 straight. Interesting stretch coming here with them playing the mariners at home. What percentage of your bankroll are you playing per unit? Last year their longest was a 6 game win streak. How many astros wins in a row can you fade before going bust?

[jrs362]

I like this strategy. The chances of them winning 5 or 6 in a row are WAY LOWER than them winning 6 straight. Interesting stretch coming here with them playing the mariners at home. What percentage of your bankroll are you playing per unit? Last year their longest was a 6 game win streak. How many astros wins in a row can you fade before going bust?

That's my way of thinking that it's unlikely for them to go on a long winning streak. I'm worried about the upcoming series against Seattle. Seattle for some reason hasn't figured out how to beat these guys yet.

When I started this season, each bet was to win 1% of my bankroll. Bankroll has gone up but my unit size is staying the same all season so right now a unit is just over .5%.

The key with this strategy is to not be too aggressive with unit size. You need to leave enough bankroll in order to deal with the 4-6 game win streaks if they happen to occur. I've got about 184 units in my bankroll right now so as long as the price against Houston doesn't skyrocket, I should be ok. I've only had to risk double-digit units once so far this season.

[SToth22]

I ran some numbers on this yesterday. With all the numbers I ran it seemed to me that 5 wins in a row is where this thing would end regardless of bankroll size. 6 tops. I absolutely love the idea. Its also important to remember it may be beneficial to take some days off. Nothing that says you need to play all the games against seattle.

[jrs362]

5/2/2014 7:11

Money Line

1.90

1.00

Pending

Baseball - 925 Seattle Mariners -190 for Game

[nexus13]

Jrs, How many game do you chase? 2,3, or 4?

[jrs362]

Generally chase until I can't afford to anymore. At least that was the case last year which cost me since I hit a Houston winning streak at the same time I hit a losing streak with other plays. I've shrunk my unit size for this particular strategy so it allows me to go a bit longer than I normally would be able to. This season I'll probably stop chasing after 4. At -200 per game, that would be a total of 80 units lost.

The Seattle games make me nervous but I'm stubborn so I continue to play them. Last nights game was the only one I felt good about Seattle winning. I'm hoping Iwakuma can shine in his first start this season.

5/3/2014 11:43

Money Line

3.71

2.90

Pending

Baseball - 971 Seattle Mariners -128 for Game

YTD:

Wagers	Win	Loss	Cancelled	Pending		Win %	Units Lost	Units Won	Profit/Loss
29	19	9	0	1		65.52%	24.51	41.61	17.10

[nexus13]

Haha jrs, your strategy scares me. I like the idea but you might want to perfect it a bit more. They haven't won over 60 games in last 4 years. I think it will be the same this year. Let's say they win 60 games this year, there's still 102 games we can cash in....

[jrs362]

Looks like Houston may close as the favorite today.

Today's Play:

5/4/2014 11:44

Money Line

1.03

1.00

Pending

Baseball - 921 Seattle Mariners -103 for Game

[jrs362]

Most expensive play so far this season on tap for tonight:

5/4/2014 21:22

Money Line

2.65

1.00

Pending

Baseball - 964 Detroit Tigers -265 for Game

YTD:

Wagers	Win	Loss	Cancelled	Pending		Win %	Units Lost	Units Won	Profit/Loss
31	21	9	0	1		67.74%	24.51	45.51	21.00

[jrs362]

Today:

5/6/2014 7:41

Money Line

1.78

1.00

Pending

Baseball - 912 Detroit Tigers -178 for Game

YTD:

Wagers	Win	Loss	Cancelled	Pending		Win %	Units Lost	Units Won	Profit/Loss
32	22	9	0	1		68.75%	24.51	46.51	22.00

[jrs362]

Another day, another Houston loss, and another unit won.

YTD:

Wagers	Win	Loss	Cancelled	Pending		Win %	Units Lost	Units Won	Profit/Loss
32	23	9	0	0		71.88%	24.51	47.51	23.00

Today's Play:

5/7/2014 7:27

Money Line

2.25

1.00

Pending

Baseball - 964 Detroit Tigers -225 for Game