Going to do anther thread, my 4th in a row. I will keep this simple: no bullshit and if you are looking for a lot of picks everyday or mega plays..bomb plays..GOY plays................this is not the place for you.! I look forward to hearing from you guys and I wish all a great season.!!!!!!!!!!!!
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SD. -106 - 1 UNIT -The fish have been hitting well so far and look for them to come back down a little. Stults closed out last season very strong going 3-0 with a 2.96 ERA.Think he will out duel KOEHLER................................. GLComment -
Good luck as always, CT. Like this play.Comment -
Thanks bud...........best of luck this season.!!Comment -
Lost with the Pods yest. One important thing I did not say....All games are
listed pitchers only.!.................
Mets/cincy - over 6.5 -110......1 unit...This line is too low both pitchers have 4.50 +era vs each team and the wind will be blowing out to rt. field @ 20 mph +......................gl
MLB: 0-1
YTD: -1.06 UNITS
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Good to see you back. I will be following.Comment -
Hey fly how have you been.? The family OK out there.? Hope all is well.!! Did your son grad.from Utah St.??Originally posted by fly fisherComment -
Ya he did, it was a great experience for him, expecting him to get married soon. Oldest son got married a year ago and just made me a G-pat his past month. Things are goodComment -
Hey congrats fly.!!......................all the best.Comment -
Nice win in the 9th.Comment -
niceComment -
Originally posted by fly fisherYea, like in golf...sometimes I rather be lucky than good.!!...But I missed an angle that I mostly play.!!...again another day game at Chavize goes over.!!!Originally posted by msads
MLB: 1-1
YTD: -0.06 UNITS
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balt/nyy - under 8.5 -118........1 unit
cin/st.lou - under 6.5 + 102..........1 unit.................................glComment -
KC -103 1 UNIT - Royals are 11-3 last 14 vs. Rays
CUBS +110...1 UNIT - Jackson is 6-2 with a 3.06 ERA and WHIP of 1.191, career vs Pitt. Yes Morton shut Cubbies down last week but feel that things will be diff. 2nd time around.
BALT. +115 - 1 UNIT - Nova in past has had many early season problems.
Guys just remember that it is very early on in the season.The above reasons are just small bullet points on a game. For some reason I feel compelled to do write-ups...........but when the season really gets going in early May I will not do write-ups on 1 + 2 unit games. For you guys new to betting or to my post , I power weight the games btw. 1-6 units.! This is just one of many ways to do it...................but really believe this is the best way to calibrate the games.! (maybe a post on this angle latter)....................Went 1-1 on Mon. for 0.00 units .............................gl
MLB: 2-2
YTD: - 0.06 UNITS
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Hello, Im new to this and will follow your advice. Does 1 unit translate to a % or your bank?Comment -
Yes...1 unit is = to 2% of my roll.........so if I bet a 6 unit play I am risking 12% ( +/- vig) of my roll.............but to take it a step further I really look at it as a net change of 24% in my bankroll..............Hopefully that will put it in a better perspective for you. I just dont understand how one can make a 20 unit play....How can one differentiate 2-3 unit play or a 11-12 unit play, 14-16 unit...ect. It make no sense to me but if they can do it......great for them.!!................................. .glOriginally posted by FizkichComment -
Many thx,
Being a rookie I started the season with $100. I am now up to 216. Ive been doing pretty well but I am basically making my descisions based on starting pitching. Ive noticed that with my betting amounts, I have to hit 2 games to offset 1 loss. Hopefully switching to your style I can grow a bit faster.Comment -
I wish good luck.......since we are on this topic I would like to point something else out. What I suggest is just one of many ways to look at this. About power weighting,IMO it is a must.! Look at it this way : At 11/10 odds your break even is 52.5 %, in the long run it is almost impossible to win 58 % of your games, you would do well to hit 55% of your bets...........so given all the time and work put into this it leaves one with very little gains.........the vig will drain on you..............also in baseball try not to lay more than -140.!!! There is no rush to make $ and on any given day with a full slate of games there is over250+ ways to bet baseball.! So the market will give you many opportunities not only to make money but also provide you "enough rope" to hang your self.!!................hope this helps.................glOriginally posted by FizkichComment -
Good info there... many thx.Comment -
Went 1 - 2 for -0.88 units on Tues.
MINN/OAK - UNDER 8.5 -115....1 UNIT
NYY/BALT - UNDER 8.5 - 120....1 UNIT......................More later.........................gl
MLB: 3-4
YTD: - 0.94 UNITS
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Went 0-2 on Wed for - 2.35 units. In looking at today's slate I lean on Yanks, really like Pineada this guy is a stud but has been injured for almost two years. Buchholz got hammered last outing giving up 13 hits, 6 runs in just 4.3 innings............but last season vs NYY was 3-0 with a 0.50 ERA and Yanks had a .167 BA vs him..........but will pass. For me there is just not enough innings played this early in the season to speculate on a outcome with reasonable prob. of cashing in. But will still have my hand in to stay sharp( hopefully)............so just 1 or 2 one unit plays for about another 3 weeks........................gl
MLB: 3-6
YTD: -3.29 UNITSComment -
mia/phil - under 6.5 +102.....1 unit..............................glComment -
Parlay: TOR +107 & HOU.+142................1 UNIT.......payout 4-1............................gl
MLB:3-7
YTD: -4.29Comment -
tor/balt - under 9 -114 1 unit................................glComment -
Went 1-1 for 0.00 units on Sat.
REVERSE: NATS -118 and UNDER 7.5-115 (same).......................1 unit
KC -135..............1 unit
CIN/TB - UNDER 8 -125.....................1 unit.................................... ....................................gl
MLB:4-8
YTD: - 4.29 UNITS.........Also looking @ Phil and Tor.........if I bet it..I will post it.
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MINN/KC - UNDER 8 +100..................1 UNIT (See write up in post in forum).................................. .glComment -
On Sunday went 1-4 for - 3.93 units.Tonight I like the Mets: Arroyos start was pushed back a day due to reoccurring back problems, not a good thing esp. for a pitcher.! Would think if he does well he will still be on a pitch count. Arz. is just 1-7 at home this season and has lost 4 straight.............
METS +130..2 UNITS................GL
MLB: 5-12
YTD: -8.22 UNITS
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Won with Mets on Tues. for + 2.60 units.
MIL/ST.LOU - UNDER 8.5 -115.....1 UNIT.................GL
MLB: 6-12
YTD: - 5.62 UNITS
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SD -1.5 +165......1 UNIT. - Aware of pitchers career stats vs other team....but De La Rosa has been down while Chasner is up....................glComment -
Won with the Pods for 1-0 plus 1.65 units.
REVERSE: MIL -105 and Under 6.5 +100(same)............2 UNITS
SD - 130.....1 UNIT
TOR/MINN - UNDER 7.5 -115........1 UNIT - 1ST GM...................................... ...............GL
MLB: 7-12
YTD: -3.97 UNITS
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Went 1-3 for -4.40 units on Thrs.
PITT -116
LAA +114
MIA -120......................1 UNIT Each.................................gl
MLB: 8-15
YTD: -- 8.37 UNITSComment -
Went 2-1 for + 0.98 units on Fri.
LAA +132
BALT. +130
TB -140............................1 Unit each..............Best to all and Happy Easter.!!
MLB: 10-16
YTD : -7.39 UNITSComment -
tor/clev - ff -under 4 -115..................1unit.............. ............glComment -
Went 2-2 on Sat. for 0.00 units. Will pass on the early game today.( 11:00 AM). I think about one more week and the re stricter plates will come off....................................g l
MLB:12 -18
YTD: -7.39 UNITSComment -
CWS TT - UNDER 3.5 -110...2 UNITS- Pale hose exploded for 16 runs and 18 hits yesterday, often when teams do this they come up empty the next day. Sanchez his last 3 outings has pitched 14 innings has 17 K's and 5 ER's.................................... ...GL.........May bet SD with Cashner on the bump..more work to get through.Comment
