MLB - Situation Plays - SDQL

JMon · 09-19-14, 11:43 AM

Originally posted by emceeaye

Hey Jmon where you at?

Been around...been concentrating on NFL

JMon · 09-19-14, 11:44 AM

Play Nationals ML, possible under

SDQL

p:errors = 0 and op:errors = 1 and (H or SG > 1) and SG < 5 and SGS > 2 and SGS - SG < 3 and (H or day != Saturday) and ((H and -215 < line < 142) or (A and -200 < line < 175)) and (conference = AL or o:conference = NL) and op:HR < 3 and p:runs > 2 and p:margin > -2 and 12 > pp:margin > -9 and streak < 5 and -7 < o:streak < 3 and p:SO < 14 and game number > 13 and -21 < tS(margin, N=10) < 29 and -30 < oS(margin, N=10) < 26 and s:SHA > 1 and s:SWA < 6 and s:SSO < 11 and s:SIP > 1.9 and s:SHF > 21 and s:SPT < 121 and 4 < starter rest < 17 and os:SRA < 7 and os:SWA < 6 and 20 < os:SHF < 33 and os:SIP < 8.1 and o:starter rest < 10 and op:runs < 9 and opp:runs < 13 and oppp:runs < 11 and oS(runs, N=10) > 21 and tS(HR, N=10) < 19 and tS(walks, N=10) > 16 and 42 < tS(SO, N=10) < 86 and site streak > -10 and o:site streak > -8 and op:SII < 5 and p:RMAX > 1 and oss:SHF > 13 and oss:SPT > 73 and -5 < tS(W, N=10) - oS(W, N=10) < 6 and -8 < tS(errors, N=10) - oS(errors, N=10) < 6 and opp:RMAX < 5 and team=Nationals

Alex Vaile · 09-19-14, 01:28 PM

First play : ( Bases )

Over 7.5 -110 Tigers vs Royals

p:HR = 2 and op:HR < 3 and SG < 5 and SG != 3 and 1 < SGS < 5 and s:SRA < 6 and os:SRA < 6 and (s:SHA + ss:SHA) < 17 and (os:SHA + oss:SHA) < 17 and 2.6 < tA(runs, N=10) < 6.8 and oA(runs, N=10) < 6.6 and total < 10.5 and 84 < os:SPT < 119 and starter rest < 20 and o:starter rest < 25 and (rest = 1 or rest = 0) and p:hits < 17 and 3 < op:hits < 18 and .8 < tA(doubles, N=10) < 2.5 and .8 < oA(doubles, N=10) < 3.1 and day != Wednesday and -2 < ou streak < 5 and -2 < ou streak < 3 and month < 10 and (game number < 107 or game number > 116) and tA(walks, N=10) > 1.9 and 1.9 < oA(walks, N=10) < 4.7 and tA(BPRA, N=10) > .4 and p:hits > 5 and (start time - p:start time < -306 or start time - p:start time > -102) and (p:SO + op:SO) > 7

emceeaye · 09-19-14, 03:20 PM

interesting query from the website

D and p:F and date>=20140831

JMon · 09-19-14, 04:27 PM

Playing around today...look how favs (>-175) with 90+ wins do going into the playoffs. Never a losing season since '04 fading them.

SDQL

wins>=90 and 162>game number>155 and F and line>-175 and total<9.5

43-70 (-0.51, 38.1%)	avg line: -139.7 / 129.6	on / against: -$5,570 / +$4,860	ROI: -35.3% / +43.0%
22-65 (-2.11, 25.3%)	avg line: 136.2 / -149.1	on / against: -$3,531 / +$3,241	ROI: -40.1% / +24.8%

Alex Vaile · 09-20-14, 09:45 AM

1 and 1 on 9/16 for -.05 units
129 and 107 overall
+11.99 units

1 and 0 yesterday for 1 unit
130 and 107
+ 12.99 units

Alex Vaile · 09-20-14, 09:49 AM

First 3 plays: ( Bases )

Under 7 - 120 Mets vs Braves
Under 6.5 even Nationals vs Marlins
Under 7.5 - 110 Rangers vs Angels

season > 2008 and H and 10 > month > 5 and SG < 4 and 5 > streak > -5 and 1 > tA(HR) > .7 and s:SRA < 6 and p:hits < 11 and 16 > op:hits > 4 and sss:SRA < 4 and rest = 0 and p:home runs < 2 and os:SSO < 11 and oss:SSO < 10 and os:SHA < 11 and 2 < oss:SHA < 11 and p:IT < 6 and p:LOB < 21 and s:SPT < 122 and ss:SPT < 119 and team != Rockies and team != Athletics and o:team != Blue Jays and (p:errors + pp:errors + ppp:errors + pppp:errors + ppppp:errors + pppppp:errors) < 10 and (op:errors + opp:errors + oppp:errors + opppp:errors + oppppp:errors + opppppp:errors) < 8 and (p:temperature < 91 or p:temperature = Indoors)

Alex Vaile · 09-20-14, 10:10 AM

Fourth and Fifth plays : ( Bases )

Play Rays - 170
Play Padres + 104

p:errors = 0 and op:errors = 1 and (H or SG > 1) and SG < 5 and SGS > 2 and SGS - SG < 3 and (H or day != Saturday) and ((H and -215 < line < 142) or (A and -200 < line < 175)) and (conference = AL or o:conference = NL) and op:HR < 3 and p:runs > 2 and p:margin > -2 and 12 > pp:margin > -9 and streak < 5 and -7 < o:streak < 3 and p:SO < 14 and game number > 13 and -21 < tS(margin, N=10) < 29 and -30 < oS(margin, N=10) < 26 and s:SHA > 1 and s:SWA < 6 and s:SSO < 11 and s:SIP > 1.9 and s:SHF > 21 and s:SPT < 121 and 4 < starter rest < 17 and os:SRA < 7 and os:SWA < 6 and 20 < os:SHF < 33 and os:SIP < 8.1 and o:starter rest < 10 and op:runs < 9 and opp:runs < 13 and oppp:runs < 11 and oS(runs, N=10) > 21 and tS(HR, N=10) < 19 and tS(walks, N=10) > 16 and 42 < tS(SO, N=10) < 86 and site streak > -10 and o:site streak > -8 and op:SII < 5 and p:RMAX > 1 and oss:SHF > 13 and oss:SPT > 73 and -5 < tS(W, N=10) - oS(W, N=10) < 6 and -8 < tS(errors, N=10) - oS(errors, N=10) < 6 and opp:RMAX < 5

JMon · 09-20-14, 11:21 AM

Play:

Pitt ML
Col ML

SDQL

sA(SHRA) <= .5 and p:BPRA >= 4 and line>=-140 and SG>1

emceeaye · 09-20-14, 11:26 AM

Padres su, Pirates su, indians su

Bases query I think:

tA(BPRA) < oA(BPRA) and SG = 2 and day=Saturday and month=9 and s:SRA < 5 and 8 > ss:SRA > 0 and (s:SHA + s:SWA) < 12 and os:SHRA > 0 and oss:SHRA < 2 and (game number < 41 or 87 > game number > 61 or 103 > game number > 90 or game number > 130) and op:HR < 4 and op:hits < 14 and p:margin > -7 and -10 < pp:margin < 9 and -10 < opp:margin < 9 and streak > -4 and tA(hits, N=10) > 8.1 and oA(runs, N=10) < 5.3 and -243 < line < 165 and s:SPT > 76 and os:SPT > 66 and SGS < 5 and oA(doubles, N=10) < 2.6 and tA(errors, N=10) < 1.2

I like Padres su mostly and in part due to consistency with Alex's posted above, and Pirates SU in part due to consistent query with JMON's posted above. Not as sure about Indians su

emceeaye · 09-20-14, 04:16 PM

want to go with orioles su, but...

HF and WP>o:WP+6 and SG=2 and day=Saturday and month=9 and season>=2012 and tA(runs, N=9)>oA(runs, N=9) and tA(runs, N=9)/(tA(hits, N=9)+tA(walks, N=9))>1.1*oA(runs, N=9)/(oA(hits, N=9)+oA(walks, N=9))

Anyone know who, if anyone, from the orioles' lineup will be sitting out the game today?

How has Redsox roster expansion changed their lineup for today? better, worse?

Thanks

JMon · 09-20-14, 06:46 PM

Best just not worry about that stuff, EMC. If the situation is legit and works its way through Sept and Oct. You must trust or not. Been at sdql too long, injuries, lineups etc are already figured into the line or other such parameters. It's active for a reason. Just my take, but do what you do!

Alex Vaile · 09-21-14, 01:54 AM

4 and 1 today for + 2.94 units
133 and 108 overall
+ 15.93 units

Alex Vaile · 09-21-14, 09:06 AM

First play : ( Bases )

Play Padres -110

p:errors = 0 and op:errors = 1 and (H or SG > 1) and SG < 5 and SGS > 2 and SGS - SG < 3 and (H or day != Saturday) and ((H and -215 < line < 142) or (A and -200 < line < 175)) and (conference = AL or o:conference = NL) and op:HR < 3 and p:runs > 2 and p:margin > -2 and 12 > pp:margin > -9 and streak < 5 and -7 < o:streak < 3 and p:SO < 14 and game number > 13 and -21 < tS(margin, N=10) < 29 and -30 < oS(margin, N=10) < 26 and s:SHA > 1 and s:SWA < 6 and s:SSO < 11 and s:SIP > 1.9 and s:SHF > 21 and s:SPT < 121 and 4 < starter rest < 17 and os:SRA < 7 and os:SWA < 6 and 20 < os:SHF < 33 and os:SIP < 8.1 and o:starter rest < 10 and op:runs < 9 and opp:runs < 13 and oppp:runs < 11 and oS(runs, N=10) > 21 and tS(HR, N=10) < 19 and tS(walks, N=10) > 16 and 42 < tS(SO, N=10) < 86 and site streak > -10 and o:site streak > -8 and op:SII < 5 and p:RMAX > 1 and oss:SHF > 13 and oss:SPT > 73 and -5 < tS(W, N=10) - oS(W, N=10) < 6 and -8 < tS(errors, N=10) - oS(errors, N=10) < 6 and opp:RMAX < 5

JMon · 09-21-14, 09:33 AM

ref post #750

Situation A: Fade a Sunday NL Getaway team

2014 tracking results on the fade: 27-51 (34.6%) (+1820)

Last week (+295)

Fading (play against)

Mets
Giants
Brewers

For those who have followed this situation I developed earlier in the season have seen it perform very nicely; nearly 2,000 worth of profits on a 100 bettor

JMon · 09-21-14, 09:38 AM

ref post #750

Situation B: Sunday Under Getaway

2014 tracking results over-under-push: 40-46-3 (+160)

Last week: (-290)

Play under

Sea
Bos
SF
Milw
Chw
Clev

JMon · 09-21-14, 10:31 AM

Play Indians ML, possible RL

Fade a Sunday home dog in AL conference against a AL foe

SDQL

H and day = Sunday and 2011<=season and conference = AL and o:conference=AL and SG>2 and line>100 and total<10 and (month=5 or month=7 or month=9) and team=Twins

emceeaye · 09-21-14, 11:57 AM

Mariners under, orioles under, Tigers under

Bases query:

day = Sunday and SG = 3 and month=9 and 0 < s:SRA < 8 and 0 < os:SRA < 6 and (163 > game number > 126 or 103 > game number > 77) and starter rest < 11 and 113 > s:SPT > 58 and 118 > os:SPT > 52 and (H or F) and (s:SWA + ss:SWA + sss:SWA) > 1 and 3.9 > (tA(BPRA) + oA(BPRA)) > 2.1 and (s:SHRA + ss:SHRA + sss:SHRA + ssss:SHRA) < 6 and os:SHRA < 3 and (p:HR + pp:HR + ppp:HR + pppp:HR) < 9 and streak > -5 and o:streak > -7 and o

u streak < 3 and (p:fly balls + pp:fly balls + ppp:fly balls) > 9 and (op:fly balls + opp:fly balls + oppp:fly balls + opppp:fly balls) > 14 and 3 < (s:SSO + ss:SSO) < 17 and os:SSO < 9

FlyinAir · 09-21-14, 07:42 PM

Before MLB season even started, I wanted to keep track (write down, put on Word sheet, whatever) Every single SQDL.

Anybody have the time to do so?
Anybody want to split it up (pg 1 thru 20 type thing)
Make a beautiful SDQL packet

Same goes for last years SDQL NBA - for this years season.

Just an idea.

Alex Vaile · 09-22-14, 10:45 AM

1 and 0 for 1 unit yesterday
134 and 108 overall
+ 16.93 units

emceeaye · 09-22-14, 01:24 PM

cubs RL, Astros RL, Orioles RL

Here's one from Jmon I think, modified for first game of series, on Monday and in September since 2010 pointing to RL for cubs, Astros, and Orioles:

D and SG = 1 and day = Monday and season >= 2010 and month = 9 and playoffs = 0 and streak > -4 and -8 < o:streak < 6 and -7 < p:margin < 10 and -10 < op:margin < 9 and p:runs < 13 and op:runs != 0 and p:hits > 1 and 3 < op:hits < 15 and op:doubles < 6 and p:triples < 3 and op:triples < 2 and p:SO > 3 and 2 < op:SO < 17 and 3 < p:ground balls < 21 and 2 < op:ground balls < 24 and p:fly balls < 16 and 2 < op:fly balls < 16 and op:BPRA < 9 and 1.5 < p:SIP < 8.1 and 1.9 < op:SIP < 8.5 and 33 < p:SPT < 116 and 48 < op:SPT < 111 and op:SHF < 34 and 27 < p:batters faced < 46 and 28 < op:batters faced < 57 and p:at bats + p:walks < 48 and op:at bats + op:walks < 46 and 0 < p:TLOB < 12 and 0 < op:TLOB < 13 and (14 > site streak > 5 or -1 > site streak > -12) and (1 < o:site streak < 10 or -11 < o:site streak < -5) and (conference = AL or o:conference = NL) and op:RMAX < 8 and op:inning runs op:R1 < 5 and op:inning runs op:R2 < 4 and op:inning runs op:R3 < 3 and p:errors < 3 and op:errors < 4 and os:SHA < 12 and os:SRA < 7 and 0 < os:SWA < 5 and s:SPT > 83 and starter rest < 12 and s:SIP > 4.9

Alex Vaile · 09-22-14, 01:26 PM

First 2 plays: ( Bases )

Play Under 9 - 115 White Sox vs Tigers
Under 8 - 115 Dbacks vs Twins

season > 2008 and H and 10 > month > 5 and SG < 4 and 5 > streak > -5 and 1 > tA(HR) > .7 and s:SRA < 6 and p:hits < 11 and 16 > op:hits > 4 and sss:SRA < 4 and rest = 0 and p:home runs < 2 and os:SSO < 11 and oss:SSO < 10 and os:SHA < 11 and 2 < oss:SHA < 11 and p:IT < 6 and p:LOB < 21 and s:SPT < 122 and ss:SPT < 119 and team != Rockies and team != Athletics and o:team != Blue Jays and (p:errors + pp:errors + ppp:errors + pppp:errors + ppppp:errors + pppppp:errors) < 10 and (op:errors + opp:errors + oppp:errors + opppp:errors + oppppp:errors + opppppp:errors) < 8 and (p:temperature < 91 or p:temperature = Indoors)

emceeaye · 09-22-14, 02:21 PM

Tigers su

This one points to Detroit su, but just dont know enough about Lobstein and Bassitt...

HF and p:A and p:L and SG = 1 and day = Monday and month = 9 and season > 2008 and tA(W, N=13) >= .54 and tA(s:SRA + ss:SRA+sss:SRA) <= 15

JMon · 09-22-14, 04:18 PM

Nothing looks too great today... have a MNF play I will post shortly over in the NFL thread. Like to see everyone get more involved over there, including myself..

nash13 · 09-22-14, 08:10 PM

Originally posted by FlyinAir

Before MLB season even started, I wanted to keep track (write down, put on Word sheet, whatever) Every single SQDL.

Anybody have the time to do so?
Anybody want to split it up (pg 1 thru 20 type thing)
Make a beautiful SDQL packet

Same goes for last years SDQL NBA - for this years season.

Just an idea.

i am starting an google docs sheet. if anyone would like to contribute? i can share my own situational plays too.
will start tomorrow. maybe share the load?
if 5 people help. it could be done in one hour.

JMon · 09-22-14, 09:08 PM

Guys, the few individuals that have keep this thread alive and have shared all the situations in it, most likely have them saved already. At least I know I do.

nash13 · 09-22-14, 09:52 PM

I do too

emceeaye · 09-23-14, 11:00 AM

Me too. I'd be happy to share, but all of the ones I have are in this thread already.

emceeaye · 09-23-14, 01:00 PM

Originally posted by JMon

Best just not worry about that stuff, EMC. If the situation is legit and works its way through Sept and Oct. You must trust or not. Been at sdql too long, injuries, lineups etc are already figured into the line or other such parameters. It's active for a reason. Just my take, but do what you do!

Yeah, I hear you. There definitely is a reason why the query is active, and I certainly do not discount the rationale for the query or the validity of the results. But given that the query usually does not take into account the influence of significant variables on the outcome of the game (e.g., roster expansions, brand new pitchers, etc.), I like to take a cautious approach. Given that there are innumerable variables that influence the outcome, and that we are only tapping into some of them with any given query, in certain situations like these, I like to err on the side of caution with a no-play as part of an effort to minimize losses even at the expense of the possibilty of missing a winner.

Alex Vaile · 09-23-14, 01:34 PM

1-0-1 yesterday for +1 unit
135 and 108 overall
+ 17.93 units

JMon · 09-23-14, 03:01 PM

Originally posted by JMon

Playing around today...look how favs (>-175) with 90+ wins do going into the playoffs. Never a losing season since '04 fading them.

SDQL

wins>=90 and 162>game number>155 and F and line>-175 and total<9.5

43-70 (-0.51, 38.1%)	avg line: -139.7 / 129.6	on / against: -$5,570 / +$4,860	ROI: -35.3% / +43.0%
22-65 (-2.11, 25.3%)	avg line: 136.2 / -149.1	on / against: -$3,531 / +$3,241	ROI: -40.1% / +24.8%

Active for the first time this year..

JMon · 09-23-14, 03:33 PM

Play Tor

SDQL

H and -8 > (starter wins - starter losses + o:starter losses - o:starter wins) > -14 and day != Wednesday and day != Thursday and day != Friday and 6 > s:SRA and SG != 4 and conference = o:conference and total > 6.5 and team=Blue Jays

JMon · 09-23-14, 04:06 PM

Play CHW under

SDQL

tS(W, N=10) > 5 and oS(W, N=10) = 6 and 4 > SG > 1 and 2 < SGS < 5 and ou streak < 2 and o

u streak < 2 and oS(O, N=10) < 8 and tS(O, N=10) < 8 and -25 < oS(ou margin, N=10) < 28 and -27 < tS(ou margin, N=10) < 30 and s:SHF < 33 and os:SHF < 33 and game number > 18 and (division != AL West or NDIV) and op:HR + p:HR < 7 and 16.9 < (p:SIP + pp:SIP + ppp:SIP + pppp:SIP) < 30.1 and -11 < site streak < 10 and o:site streak > -8 and 0 < s:SSO < 11 and os:SSO < 9 and ss:SSO < 11 and oss:SSO < 11 and team=White Sox

Alex Vaile · 09-23-14, 04:38 PM

First 3 plays : ( Bases )

Under 6.5 -110 Royals vs Indians
Under 7.5 - 120 Cards vs Cubs
Under 6.5 - 115 Giants vs Dodgers

season > 2008 and H and 10 > month > 5 and SG < 4 and 5 > streak > -5 and 1 > tA(HR) > .7 and s:SRA < 6 and p:hits < 11 and 16 > op:hits > 4 and sss:SRA < 4 and rest = 0 and p:home runs < 2 and os:SSO < 11 and oss:SSO < 10 and os:SHA < 11 and 2 < oss:SHA < 11 and p:IT < 6 and p:LOB < 21 and s:SPT < 122 and ss:SPT < 119 and team != Rockies and team != Athletics and o:team != Blue Jays and (p:errors + pp:errors + ppp:errors + pppp:errors + ppppp:errors + pppppp:errors) < 10 and (op:errors + opp:errors + oppp:errors + opppp:errors + oppppp:errors + opppppp:errors) < 8 and (p:temperature < 91 or p:temperature = Indoors)

Alex Vaile · 09-23-14, 05:27 PM

Fourth and Fifth plays : ( Bases )

Play Cardinals - 115
Play Yankees -160

p:errors = 0 and op:errors = 1 and (H or SG > 1) and SG < 5 and SGS > 2 and SGS - SG < 3 and (H or day != Saturday) and ((H and -215 < line < 142) or (A and -200 < line < 175)) and (conference = AL or o:conference = NL) and op:HR < 3 and p:runs > 2 and p:margin > -2 and 12 > pp:margin > -9 and streak < 5 and -7 < o:streak < 3 and p:SO < 14 and game number > 13 and -21 < tS(margin, N=10) < 29 and -30 < oS(margin, N=10) < 26 and s:SHA > 1 and s:SWA < 6 and s:SSO < 11 and s:SIP > 1.9 and s:SHF > 21 and s:SPT < 121 and 4 < starter rest < 17 and os:SRA < 7 and os:SWA < 6 and 20 < os:SHF < 33 and os:SIP < 8.1 and o:starter rest < 10 and op:runs < 9 and opp:runs < 13 and oppp:runs < 11 and oS(runs, N=10) > 21 and tS(HR, N=10) < 19 and tS(walks, N=10) > 16 and 42 < tS(SO, N=10) < 86 and site streak > -10 and o:site streak > -8 and op:SII < 5 and p:RMAX > 1 and oss:SHF > 13 and oss:SPT > 73 and -5 < tS(W, N=10) - oS(W, N=10) < 6 and -8 < tS(errors, N=10) - oS(errors, N=10) < 6 and opp:RMAX < 5