MLB - Situation Plays - SDQL

emceeaye · 08-18-14, 10:41 AM

Originally posted by Alex Vaile

Second posted play: ( Dr.M )

Play Minnesota +151 twins 9 and 0 in this spot
Play Under 8.5 -115 under is 1 and 8 in this situation.

team=Twins and SG> 1 and p:margin<=-5 and date> 20140510

I like this one especially since KC was one of their victims in this situation in the past.

But, now how do we factor in the following queries from the website?

t:team=Royals and A and p:A and p:F and date>=20140415

t:team=Royals and p:A and p:F and p:W and date>=20130727

t:team=Royals and p:F and p:W and date>=20140608

t:team=Royals and F and p:A and date>=20130628

BeanTownClown88 · 08-18-14, 11:05 AM

Do the Twins usually have a guy pitching who in his only start all year gave up 7 walks?
Hard to find a more god awful starter tonight than that guy May..good luck anyways!

JMon · 08-18-14, 11:44 AM

Originally posted by emceeaye

I have been thinking about this since Posey posted it the other day. As Jmon indicated initially (and confirmed by Joe in the Google discussion group) , "A() shows average league-wide. So presumably it would spit out any game(s) on a day when win % is at least 40% over the past 10 days (or game-days).

"S(W, N=4)>=2": This one is trickier for me to get, and Joe hasn't answered my post yet about this in the discussion group (it was really a follow up question to the original question in the same post about A(W, N=10)). If S() reflects league-wide sum, then perhaps it means the sum of wins for any team league-wide over the past 4 days' games that has won at least 2 of their past 4 games.

Please clarify if I'm wrong.

Why exactly the win rate of the home favorite team would be higher with a higher rate of AD wins league wide I don't know.

I am not sure, but something is not right with it, so do not use it. I wrote down every play yesterday (with out a line parameter- so I didn't have to worry about line movements). At the end of the day, 5 games didn't end up being tracked in the database, 3 of which I think were losers. I believe part of the query is NOT predictive and is only referencing the game being played that day- which does us no good not knowing what the outcome may be.

Alex Vaile · 08-18-14, 11:51 AM

Third play: ( Bases )

Under 8.5 -120 Mariners vs Phillies

season > 2008 and H and 10 > month > 5 and SG < 4 and 5 > streak > -5 and 1 > tA(HR) > .7 and s:SRA < 6 and p:hits < 11 and 16 > op:hits > 4 and sss:SRA < 4 and rest = 0 and p:home runs < 2 and os:SSO < 11 and oss:SSO < 10 and os:SHA < 11 and 2 < oss:SHA < 11 and p:IT < 6 and p:LOB < 21 and s:SPT < 122 and ss:SPT < 119 and team != Rockies and team != Athletics and o:team != Blue Jays and (p:errors + pp:errors + ppp:errors + pppp:errors + ppppp:errors + pppppp:errors) < 10 and (op:errors + opp:errors + oppp:errors + opppp:errors + oppppp:errors + opppppp:errors) < 8 and (p:temperature < 91 or p:temperature = Indoors)

Alex Vaile · 08-18-14, 11:55 AM

Originally posted by emceeaye

I like this one especially since KC was one of their victims in this situation in the past.

But, now how do we factor in the following queries from the website?

t:team=Royals and A and p:A and p:F and date>=20140415

t:team=Royals and p:A and p:F and p:W and date>=20130727

t:team=Royals and p:F and p:W and date>=20140608

t:team=Royals and F and p:A and date>=20130628

Hope and pray! !

emceeaye · 08-18-14, 12:28 PM

even better with SG=1 and month=8 and 0>streak>-3

Originally posted by Alex Vaile

Third play: ( Bases )

Under 8.5 -120 Mariners vs Phillies

season > 2008 and H and 10 > month > 5 and SG < 4 and 5 > streak > -5 and 1 > tA(HR) > .7 and s:SRA < 6 and p:hits < 11 and 16 > op:hits > 4 and sss:SRA < 4 and rest = 0 and p:home runs < 2 and os:SSO < 11 and oss:SSO < 10 and os:SHA < 11 and 2 < oss:SHA < 11 and p:IT < 6 and p:LOB < 21 and s:SPT < 122 and ss:SPT < 119 and team != Rockies and team != Athletics and o:team != Blue Jays and (p:errors + pp:errors + ppp:errors + pppp:errors + ppppp:errors + pppppp:errors) < 10 and (op:errors + opp:errors + oppp:errors + opppp:errors + oppppp:errors + opppppp:errors) < 8 and (p:temperature < 91 or p:temperature = Indoors)

season > 2008 and H and SG=1 and month=8 and SG < 4 and 0>streak > -3 and 1 > tA(HR) > .7 and s:SRA < 6 and p:hits < 11 and 16 > op:hits > 4 and sss:SRA < 4 and rest = 0 and p:home runs < 2 and os:SSO < 11 and oss:SSO < 10 and os:SHA < 11 and 2 < oss:SHA < 11 and p:IT < 6 and p:LOB < 21 and s:SPT < 122 and ss:SPT < 119 and team != Rockies and team != Athletics and o:team != Blue Jays and (p:errors + pp:errors + ppp:errors + pppp:errors + ppppp:errors + pppppp:errors) < 10 and (op:errors + opp:errors + oppp:errors + opppp:errors + oppppp:errors + opppppp:errors) < 8 and (p:temperature < 91 or p:temperature = Indoors)

emceeaye · 08-18-14, 12:58 PM

Originally posted by Alex Vaile

Third play: ( Bases )

Under 8.5 -120 Mariners vs Phillies

season > 2008 and H and 10 > month > 5 and SG < 4 and 5 > streak > -5 and 1 > tA(HR) > .7 and s:SRA < 6 and p:hits < 11 and 16 > op:hits > 4 and sss:SRA < 4 and rest = 0 and p:home runs < 2 and os:SSO < 11 and oss:SSO < 10 and os:SHA < 11 and 2 < oss:SHA < 11 and p:IT < 6 and p:LOB < 21 and s:SPT < 122 and ss:SPT < 119 and team != Rockies and team != Athletics and o:team != Blue Jays and (p:errors + pp:errors + ppp:errors + pppp:errors + ppppp:errors + pppppp:errors) < 10 and (op:errors + opp:errors + oppp:errors + opppp:errors + oppppp:errors + opppppp:errors) < 8 and (p:temperature < 91 or p:temperature = Indoors)

Another supportive query for the under. However this one not great for August game 1s:

tA(doubles, N=10) < 1.9 and 8.9 < tA(hits, N=10) < 10.4 and .5 < tA(HR, N=10) < 1.3 and 1 < oA(doubles, N=10) < 1.7 and oA(hits, N=10) < 9.9 and oA(HR, N=10) < 1.1 and SG < 4 and 5 > SGS > 2 and p:HR < 3 and p:hits < 15 and 18 > pp:hits > 4 and 3 < ppp:hits < 16 and 3 < pppp:hits < 13 and ppppp:hits < 15 and pppppp:hits < 15 and ppppppp:hits > 6 and op:hits < 13 and s:SRA < 7 and s:SHRA < 2 and os:SRA < 8 and os:SPT < 122

emceeaye · 08-18-14, 01:59 PM

support for Cards su

I think this is one of Jmon's queries:

AD and s:SRA>=3.9 and tA(BPRA, N=4)>=3.2 and WP<2+o:WP and s:SIP<=5

Alex Vaile · 08-18-14, 04:56 PM

Originally posted by Alex Vaile

Push today in As under.

Tomorrow early: (my own creations)

Mets -120

team=Mets and HF and p:L and DAY and season > 2013
starter = Bartolo Colon and HF and DAY and season >2012
team=Cubs and AD and p:W and DAY and season > 2012

I just saw this was no action for me due to pitching change so I'm removing it from my plays. Sorry if anyone bet it.

JMon · 08-18-14, 05:22 PM

Originally posted by emceeaye

I think this is one of Jmon's queries:

AD and s:SRA>=3.9 and tA(BPRA, N=4)>=3.2 and WP<2+o:WP and s:SIP<=5

Not one of mine...in fact that query does not look very good. I played Reds tonight, and if I remember right it was a bases query.

Sorry guys...long day at work...didn't have time to post.

emceeaye · 08-18-14, 11:04 PM

Originally posted by emceeaye

Came up with this yesterday and it went 1-1 yesterday:

HF and tA(W, N=10)>A(W, N=10)+.15 and tS(W, N=4)>S(W, N=4) and season>2012 and month=8 and o:site streak<=-4

winner again

it's active tomorrow with Nats su and Brewers su,

Alex Vaile · 08-19-14, 07:18 AM

1 and 2 for -1.15 units
85 and 73 overall
+5.95 units overall

Alex Vaile · 08-19-14, 07:22 AM

First posted play: ( Bases )

Under 8 -105 Baltimore vs White Sox

season > 2008 and H and 10 > month > 5 and SG < 4 and 5 > streak > -5 and 1 > tA(HR) > .7 and s:SRA < 6 and p:hits < 11 and 16 > op:hits > 4 and sss:SRA < 4 and rest = 0 and p:home runs < 2 and os:SSO < 11 and oss:SSO < 10 and os:SHA < 11 and 2 < oss:SHA < 11 and p:IT < 6 and p:LOB < 21 and s:SPT < 122 and ss:SPT < 119 and team != Rockies and team != Athletics and o:team != Blue Jays and (p:errors + pp:errors + ppp:errors + pppp:errors + ppppp:errors + pppppp:errors) < 10 and (op:errors + opp:errors + oppp:errors + opppp:errors + oppppp:errors + opppppp:errors) < 8 and (p:temperature < 91 or p:temperature = Indoors)

emceeaye · 08-19-14, 08:21 AM

Bases query supporting Tigers/Rays under

season > 2008 and H and 10 > month > 5 and SG < 4 and 5 > streak > -5 and 1 > tA(HR) > .7 and s:SRA < 6 and p:hits < 11 and 16 > op:hits > 4 and sss:SRA < 4 and rest = 0 and p:home runs < 2 and os:SSO < 11 and oss:SSO < 10 and os:SHA < 11 and 2 < oss:SHA < 11 and p:IT < 6 and p:LOB < 21 and s:SPT < 122 and ss:SPT < 119 and team != Rockies and team != Athletics and o:team != Blue Jays and (p:errors + pp:errors + ppp:errors + pppp:errors + ppppp:errors + pppppp:errors) < 10 and (op:errors + opp:errors + oppp:errors + opppp:errors + oppppp:errors + opppppp:errors) < 8 and (p:temperature < 91 or p:temperature = Indoors)

great record for SG=1 and month=8

Update: sorry, the above query supports Baltimore under...I mistakenly posted wrong query, but the one below does in fact support the Rays/Tigers under. When I find the other query in support of Rays/Tigers u der, I'll post it. Sorry about the confusion.
here's another in support:

p:RMAX = 1 and p:runs = 2 and SG < 4 and SGS = 3 and op:runs < 5 and 0 < po:runs < 5 and op:HR < 2 and op:hits > 2 and 3 < p:hits < 13 and tS(HR, N=4) < 7 and 3 < oS(HR, N=10) < 14 and tS(hits, N=10) < 103 and oS(hits, N=10) < 104 and -23 < oS(ou margin, N=10) < 16 and os:SHRA < 3 and day != Wednesday and 0 > ou streak > -6 and p:doubles < 4 and s:SHF < 33 and os:SHF < 33 and s:SPT < 115 and o:starter rest < 16

Alex Vaile · 08-19-14, 10:39 AM

Originally posted by emceeaye

season > 2008 and H and 10 > month > 5 and SG < 4 and 5 > streak > -5 and 1 > tA(HR) > .7 and s:SRA < 6 and p:hits < 11 and 16 > op:hits > 4 and sss:SRA < 4 and rest = 0 and p:home runs < 2 and os:SSO < 11 and oss:SSO < 10 and os:SHA < 11 and 2 < oss:SHA < 11 and p:IT < 6 and p:LOB < 21 and s:SPT < 122 and ss:SPT < 119 and team != Rockies and team != Athletics and o:team != Blue Jays and (p:errors + pp:errors + ppp:errors + pppp:errors + ppppp:errors + pppppp:errors) < 10 and (op:errors + opp:errors + oppp:errors + opppp:errors + oppppp:errors + opppppp:errors) < 8 and (p:temperature < 91 or p:temperature = Indoors)

great record for SG=1 and month=8

here's another in support:

p:RMAX = 1 and p:runs = 2 and SG < 4 and SGS = 3 and op:runs < 5 and 0 < po:runs < 5 and op:HR < 2 and op:hits > 2 and 3 < p:hits < 13 and tS(HR, N=4) < 7 and 3 < oS(HR, N=10) < 14 and tS(hits, N=10) < 103 and oS(hits, N=10) < 104 and -23 < oS(ou margin, N=10) < 16 and os:SHRA < 3 and day != Wednesday and 0 > ou streak > -6 and p:doubles < 4 and s:SHF < 33 and os:SHF < 33 and s:SPT < 115 and o:starter rest < 16

The top query lists the Baltimore game as active today not the Rays game as I listed it just above yours. Second query looks good though for Rays.

hyahya · 08-19-14, 10:57 AM

Padres and Angels looking terrific (one counter query on Dodgers RL but I'm ignoring it):

30 200

padres

25 430

under tigers

24 800

over jays

over rockies

over nats

32.5 580

angels

33 480

rays

31.5 500

under orioles

29 400

under orioles

26 500

phils

21 900

under dodgers

under yanks

30 420

A's RL

dodgers RL

30 660

marlins
angels

30 380

padres

30 660

padres

30 230

padres

reds

37 260

indians

38 250

padres
angels

32 360

under tigers

39 135

under phils

36 300

angels

30 380

over cubs
over nats

28 810

cubs

29 410

nats

31 350

jays

30 200

padres

29 380

mets

44 120

giants

41 300

giants

37 330

phils

27 850

under angels

30 360

cubs

11.5 1100

orioles

emceeaye · 08-19-14, 11:15 AM

Originally posted by Alex Vaile

The top query lists the Baltimore game as active today not the Rays game as I listed it just above yours. Second query looks good though for Rays.

Yes, sorry about confusion, I posted wrong first query...the second one is in support of Rays/Tigers under.

emceeaye · 08-19-14, 11:37 AM

Originally posted by Alex Vaile

First posted play: ( Bases )

Under 8 -105 Baltimore vs White Sox

season > 2008 and H and 10 > month > 5 and SG < 4 and 5 > streak > -5 and 1 > tA(HR) > .7 and s:SRA < 6 and p:hits < 11 and 16 > op:hits > 4 and sss:SRA < 4 and rest = 0 and p:home runs < 2 and os:SSO < 11 and oss:SSO < 10 and os:SHA < 11 and 2 < oss:SHA < 11 and p:IT < 6 and p:LOB < 21 and s:SPT < 122 and ss:SPT < 119 and team != Rockies and team != Athletics and o:team != Blue Jays and (p:errors + pp:errors + ppp:errors + pppp:errors + ppppp:errors + pppppp:errors) < 10 and (op:errors + opp:errors + oppp:errors + opppp:errors + oppppp:errors + opppppp:errors) < 8 and (p:temperature < 91 or p:temperature = Indoors)

Here is strong conflicting query on the over:

SG = 2 and H and (ou streak + o

u streak) = 3 and s:SRA > 0 and os:SHA < 11 and os:SRA > 0 and p:HR < 4 and op:HR < 4 and day != Monday and day != Sunday and day != Thursday and s:SWA != 0 and os:SWA < 3 and 7 > o:starter rest > 4 and starter rest > 5 and s

u margin > -2 and total > 7.5

emceeaye · 08-19-14, 11:50 AM

Originally posted by hyahya

Padres and Angels looking terrific (one counter query on Dodgers RL but I'm ignoring it):

30 200

padres

25 430

under tigers

24 800

over jays

over rockies

over nats

32.5 580

angels

33 480

rays

31.5 500

under orioles

29 400

under orioles

26 500

phils

21 900

under dodgers

under yanks

30 420

A's RL

dodgers RL

30 660

marlins
angels

30 380

padres

30 660

padres

30 230

padres

reds

37 260

indians

38 250

padres
angels

32 360

under tigers

39 135

under phils

36 300

angels

30 380

over cubs
over nats

28 810

cubs

29 410

nats

31 350

jays

30 200

padres

29 380

mets

44 120

giants

41 300

giants

37 330

phils

27 850

under angels

30 360

cubs

11.5 1100

orioles

Hyahya, thank you for this summary! Can you please post the Angels ml queries?

emceeaye · 08-19-14, 02:06 PM

As su and Yankees su supported by this Jmon or Bases query

This one has done pretty well this year:

line<=-155 and Sum(hits@team and season)/Sum(at bats@team and season)<=.265 and t:conference=AL and os:earned runs<=1 and total<9.5 and SG<4

hyahya · 08-19-14, 04:36 PM

Originally posted by emceeaye

Hyahya, thank you for this summary! Can you please post the Angels ml queries?

Sorry Emc, at work and on pacific time, I run all my queries early in the morning based on all those posted here by the team and a few more I came across. You should have access to 90% of this list in this fine thread.

emceeaye · 08-19-14, 05:22 PM

Originally posted by hyahya

Sorry Emc, at work and on pacific time, I run all my queries early in the morning based on all those posted here by the team and a few more I came across. You should have access to 90% of this list in this fine thread.

No problem, hyahya. I found 'em. I'm also at work on Pacific time, and had a few moments to post on a slower day at work for me.

b1slickguy · 08-19-14, 05:48 PM

(team=Twins or team=Rangers) and D and oS:W and oS:season=season and season>=2012

Fade play active again tonight.
Good luck.

emceeaye · 08-19-14, 05:57 PM

Originally posted by b1slickguy

(team=Twins or team=Rangers) and D and oS:W and oS:season=season and season>=2012

Fade play active again tonight.
Good luck.

Nice! Thanks slick.

Alex Vaile · 08-19-14, 06:28 PM

Second play: ( Dr.M )

Royals -150
14 and 0 in this spot 4 and 0 this season.

team=Royals and SG=1 and line <=-120 and p:hits >=12 and p:W

Alex Vaile · 08-19-14, 11:39 PM

Originally posted by emceeaye

Nice! Thanks slick.

Winner! ! Thanks for posting!

Alex Vaile · 08-19-14, 11:41 PM

2 and 0 today for + 2 units
87 and 73 overall
+ 7.95 units

staf · 08-20-14, 08:01 AM

Results of an SDQL I consider to be predicting value bets on Blue Jays and Padres.

SU: 1262-1480 (-0.23, 46.0%) avg line: -108.7 / -103.9 on / against: -$36,848 / +$22,615 ROI: -10.8% / +6.8%

Date Link Day Site Team Starter Opp Starter Final SUm W/L OUm O/U Hits Errors BL Line Total Innings
Aug 20, 2014 Wed home Brewers Jimmy Nelson - R Blue Jays RA Dickey - R -140 8.0
Aug 20, 2014 Wed home Dodgers Roberto Hernandez - R Padres Eric Stults - L -145 7.5

Probably have a few run line picks in a few hours.

emceeaye · 08-20-14, 08:48 AM

Originally posted by staf

Results of an SDQL I consider to be predicting value bets on Blue Jays and Padres.

SU: 1262-1480 (-0.23, 46.0%) avg line: -108.7 / -103.9 on / against: -$36,848 / +$22,615 ROI: -10.8% / +6.8%

Date Link Day Site Team Starter Opp Starter Final SUm W/L OUm O/U Hits Errors BL Line Total Innings
Aug 20, 2014 Wed home Brewers Jimmy Nelson - R Blue Jays RA Dickey - R -140 8.0
Aug 20, 2014 Wed home Dodgers Roberto Hernandez - R Padres Eric Stults - L -145 7.5

Probably have a few run line picks in a few hours.

Staff, thanks. Would you mind posting the query?

emceeaye · 08-20-14, 08:58 AM

Originally posted by emceeaye

winner again

it's active tomorrow with Nats su and Brewers su,

winner again!!
its active again today with three picks including Nats, Cardinals and brewers straight up

tA(W, N=10)>A(W, N=10)+.15 and tS(W, N=4)>S(W, N=4) and season>2012 and month=8 and o:site streak<=-4

staf · 08-20-14, 09:29 AM

Originally posted by emceeaye

Staff, thanks. Would you mind posting the query?

I'd rather not post the queries. If that's frowned upon I'll stop posting here.
For what its worth, I've got 14 value bet queries for baseball and basketball. They average over 1500 predictions a year at a 55% win rate over the full SDB history.

staf · 08-20-14, 11:18 AM

Rangers +1.5 is a confirmed play. The Blue Jays +1.5 qualifies at the moment, but is borderline. If the odds on the run line get any worse at SDB, I'll be passing on it.

RL: 588-712 (-0.24, 45.2%) avg line: -113.0 / -101.1 on / against: -$22,951 / +$15,522 ROI: -13.4% / +9.5%

Date Link Day Site Team Starter Opp Starter Final SUm W/L OUm O/U Hits Errors BL Line Total Innings
Aug 20, 2014 Wed home Brewers Jimmy Nelson - R Blue Jays RA Dickey - R -125 8.5
Aug 20, 2014 Wed home Marlins Nathan Eovaldi - R Rangers Nicholas Martinez - R -170 8.0

Cleveland now qualifies but is borderline also. If the line moves to -115 or worse at SDB, I'll be passing.
SU: 459-405 (0.22, 53.1%) avg line: 119.1 / -130.0 on / against: +$13,748 / -$18,454 ROI: +15.6% / -16.4%

Date Link Day Site Team Starter Opp Starter Final SUm W/L OUm O/U Hits Errors BL Line Total Innings
Aug 20, 2014 Wed away Indians TJ House - L Twins Ricky Nolasco - R -110 8.5

emceeaye · 08-20-14, 11:18 AM

Originally posted by staf

I'd rather not post the queries. If that's frowned upon I'll stop posting here.
For what its worth, I've got 14 value bet queries for baseball and basketball. They average over 1500 predictions a year at a 55% win rate over the full SDB history.

Staf, no problem. Just FYI, it has been extremely useful for readers of this thread when the queries themselves are posted so that the reader can use the queries in the future and validate them situationally with filters such as month=8, SG=2, day=Wednesday, season>2008, etc

Alex Vaile · 08-20-14, 11:23 AM

Big day for under query: ( Bases )

5 plays today:

Under 7 -115 Seattle vs Phillies
Under 8.5 -105 Giants vs Cubs
Under 8.5 + 105 Indians vs Twins
Under 8.5 - 105 Orioles vs White Sox
Under 7.5 - 115 Pads vs Dodgers

season > 2008 and H and 10 > month > 5 and SG < 4 and 5 > streak > -5 and 1 > tA(HR) > .7 and s:SRA < 6 and p:hits < 11 and 16 > op:hits > 4 and sss:SRA < 4 and rest = 0 and p:home runs < 2 and os:SSO < 11 and oss:SSO < 10 and os:SHA < 11 and 2 < oss:SHA < 11 and p:IT < 6 and p:LOB < 21 and s:SPT < 122 and ss:SPT < 119 and team != Rockies and team != Athletics and o:team != Blue Jays and (p:errors + pp:errors + ppp:errors + pppp:errors + ppppp:errors + pppppp:errors) < 10 and (op:errors + opp:errors + oppp:errors + opppp:errors + oppppp:errors + opppppp:errors) < 8 and (p:temperature < 91 or p:temperature = Indoors)

hyahya · 08-20-14, 12:29 PM

Today's results:

24.5 200

braves

23 110

angels

28.5 160

under indians

29 210

jays

39 100

rangers

31 320

jays

dbacks

32 420

under mariners

under royals

29 500

reds

32 500

under giants,

under padres

under mariners

underr orioles

under indians

30 250

bosox

26 450

under angels

26 500

tigers

20.5 900

under tigers
under mariners

under angels

28 680

tigers

32 160

rangers

36 310

dodgers

mariners

chisox

28 440

nats

37 260

bosox

33 210

bosox

41 260

under dbacks

45 175

braves

33 350

jays

30 335

reds

bosox

28 500

under twins

26 600

under mariners

18 350

dodgers

50 150

under rangers

43 125

indians

36.5 420

under mariners

33 350

indians

11.5 1000

chisox