Todays Action, 2009 M.L.B. Thread

[VegasPlayer]

Leans for 8/31/09 - May not be able to finalize this today. Swing shift starts 1 hour before 1st pitch.


CWS ML -103 1 Unit
BAL RL -110 1 Unit
LAD RL +115 1 Unit
LAA -137 1 Unit
CINN -120 1 Unit (Game 1)

[ankh4all2]

Results 8/30 (+2.36U)
Cws +215
det -48
cin +62
bos +20
cle -09
min -36
stl rl -35
nym +260
sf -29
Ari -29
atl +17
YTD -3.46

[ankh4all2]

8-31-09 picks
LAD RL +15 added game
Det -10
hou +44
cws +02
sd -40
tx rl +25
laa rl +25

[oda11]

lol, ankh4all2, you should edit your previous two posts, buddy.

and good luck today!

[CupWanted]

Todays Food for Thought

I'm going to try doing a Food for Thought everyday for the remainder of the season. I'm just planing on writing up my thoughts on a game I had an early lean on. And determine how stats and trends support that lean. I encourage support/constructive criticism at looking at stats that hold true and dont more often than not. I suggest any tailers tread lightly as this is my first season betting baseball.
Todays Food for Thought:

ATL (Kawakami) @ Florida (Johnson)
ATL Hitting: Is hitting .266 for the season but is hitting only .258 vs righties. Their run production vs Righties drops from a season average of 4.5 RPG to 4.1 RPG. ATL has however hit the division well (.279 and 5 RPG) and is hot .292 and 5 RPG in their last 7.

ATL pitching:
ATL sends Kawakami to the mound. Kawakami (6-10, 4.08 ERA) has struggled on the road as his ERA grows half a point to 4.54, his whip grows from 1.36 to 1.56, he has give up 11 of his 14 HR on the road and has struggled with his command on the road allowing 31 BBs and 44Ks. ATL is 11-13 in Kawakami's starts and 6-6 in his road starts. Kawakami has been WOEFUL against Florida this season with an ERA of 8.4 and a WHIP of 1.687 and an 0-2 record in 2 starts. The most recent of which was Vs. Johnson in which atlanta lost 6-3. I see no substantial differentiation between ATL's bullpen this season at home and on the road.

FLA Hitting:
FLA is hitting .265 this season but that number has improved to .269 vs righties and .272 at home. Their run production has not differentiated significantly in these games however as they average 4.7 RPG have scored 4.6 RPG vs righties and 4.8 RPG at home. Florida hitting has been relatively better over their last 7 games hitting .276 however run production has actually decreased in those games to 4.3 RPG.

FLA pitching:
Josh Johnson takes the mound for FLA and he has put up great numbers on the season with a 13-3 record, an era of 3.04 and a whip of 1.107. Florida is 19-7 in Johnson's starts this season. Johnson has been even more dominant at home (7-1, 2.26, 1.038) and FLA is 11-2 in those games. Johnson also boasts a 4-1 K/BB ratio at home. Finally, Johnson has been equaly dominant vs the Bravos in his career with a 4-1 record (1-0 this season) with an ERA of 2.87 but his whip has grown to 1.425. The fish are 6-3 in Johnson's starts vs the braves. While Johnson has succeeded at home the same cannot be said of the Marlin's pen at home. Also Johnson has thrown less than 100 pitches in 4 of his last 5 starts so look for the big man to go over the century mark in this pivotal wild card matchup. The fish bullpen's ERA has grown for 3.85 to 4.65 in home action as has WHIP from 1.427 to 1.564. The Marlins pen has also allowed 25 HRs at home.

Final thoughts:
I really like Johnson, and I feel the numbers confirm my early lean on FLA. Johnson has been great at home and Kawakami has been bad vs. FLA. I feel each teams bats are roughly a push and I'll easily take Johnson>Kawakami. The fish pen scares the piss out of me though which is why I'll only be playing this for 1 unit.

The Play:
Marlins to win 1 unit.
I'll be waiting til gametime to put the play in as the line is dropping and I think it will continue to do so.

[ankh4all2]

oda11,
you mean with the computer code showing up? I don't know why that happened, is there an easy explanation?
THNX

[oda11]

oda11, you mean with the computer code showing up? I don't know why that happened, is there an easy explanation? THNX

Always happens to me as well, I just go back and delete the garbage.

[CupWanted]

I'm on the DET/TAMPA over for a unit this afternoon.

So for today so far:
DETroit/TAMPA over 8 win 50
Fla Win 50

Leans on the Yanks, Dodgers, and Cubs RL (Harden with 8 straight games of 2 runs or less allowed) Harden has already been acquired by Minnesota in a supposed deal but the teams only had until 1pm to finalize the trade and no announcement has been made as of yet.

[oda11]

Leans for today:

Braves ml
Astros ml
Pads rl
O's rl
White Sox ml

Good luck everyone!

[TodaysAction]

For those of you who have not responded to this, please do so asap. Thank you.

Ok, time for some feedback since the regular season is coming to a close and hockey isn't that far off. All responses can be in thread, sent via PM or sent e-mail (my screen name here "at" yahoo "dot" com).

1. What 3 things in order did you like the most about the thread?
2. What 3 things in order did you not like about the thread?
3. What 1 change (add on) would you like for next season's thread and why?
4. What 1 feature would you like removed for next season's thread and why?
5. Do you think the idea of our majority on a team/play is worth keeping and why or why not?
6. What 3 things in order did you learn most from this thread?
7. Are you a better `capper now having posted in this thread?
8. Who do you feel is the most improved `capper in this thread?
9. Who flys under the radar in here with solid selections the most?
10. Will you be returning to our thread next season?

Thank you in advance for your participation.

Terry

[oda11]

Will send you an PM with the answer within the next 20 min, TA.

[TodaysAction]

ATL/FL,
WA/SD,
AZ/LAD,
LAD,
NYY/BALT,
KC/OAK,
LAA/SEA,

[TodaysAction]

Will send you an PM with the answer within the next 20 min, TA.

[MexicanStallion]

I sent you my repsones. Good luck with your plays

[oda11]

ATL/FL, WA/SD, AZ/LAD, LAD, NYY/BALT, KC/OAK, LAA/SEA,

Good luck.

[oda11]

Braves ml
Astros ml
Pads rl
O's rl
White Sox ml

Added: a 4 team run line parlay for 0.5u to win 12.49u C'mon Dodgers... You just stole 12.49u from me.

dodgers rl, padres rl, a's rl, angels rl

[oda11]

This is gonna be funny if Dodgers are the one ruining my parlay...

[VegasPlayer]

Leans for 8/31/09


CWS ML -103 1 Unit
BAL RL -110 1 Unit
LAD RL +115 1 Unit
LAA -137 1 Unit
CINN -120 1 Unit (Game 1)

2-3-0 -1.13 Units

[VegasPlayer]

9/1/09
Looks like a candy store today, but looks can be deceiving. Let's see how this one works out. Largest to date.

FLA -103 1 Unit
CWS -145 3 Units
BAL RL -105 2 Units
COL RL -110 1 Unit
LAD RL -100 3 Units
TEX -160 2 Units (Game 1)
DET RL +110 1 Unit
PHI RL +110 1 Unit

[MexicanStallion]

9/1/09
Looks like a candy store today, but looks can be deceiving. Let's see how this one works out. Largest to date.

FLA -103 1 Unit
CWS -145 3 Units
BAL RL -105 2 Units
COL RL -110 1 Unit
LAD RL -100 3 Units
TEX -160 2 Units (Game 1)
DET RL +110 1 Unit
PHI RL +110 1 Unit

Good luck today

[ankh4all2]

8-31-09 results (-.41U)
YTD -3.87U
LAD RL +15 L
Det -10 L
hou +44 W
cws +02 L
sd -40 W
tx rl +25 L
laa rl +25 W

[oda11]

Leans for Tuesday:
Phillies RL or ML
Pirates ML
Nats ML

Good luck everyone!

Added: Rays ML, Indians ML, Brewers ML

[ankh4all2]

oda11
GL

[ankh4all2]

I have a lean on Phi RL too.

[ankh4all2]

9/1/09 Picks
ATL BRAVES -105 [T HUDSON -R/A SANCHEZ -R]
CIN REDS -111 [C MORTON -R/J LEHR -R]
STL CARDINALS -1½+115 [B LOOPER -R/J PINEIRO -R]
TOR BLUE JAYS GM1 +134 [RZEPZNSKI -L/D NIPPERT -R]
DET TIGERS -200 [C CARRASCO-R/E JACKSON -R]

[therber2]

I'm going to try doing a Food for Thought everyday for the remainder of the season. I'm just planing on writing up my thoughts on a game I had an early lean on. And determine how stats and trends support that lean. I encourage support/constructive criticism at looking at stats that hold true and dont more often than not. I suggest any tailers tread lightly as this is my first season betting baseball.
Todays Food for Thought:

ATL (Kawakami) @ Florida (Johnson)
ATL Hitting: Is hitting .266 for the season but is hitting only .258 vs righties. Their run production vs Righties drops from a season average of 4.5 RPG to 4.1 RPG. ATL has however hit the division well (.279 and 5 RPG) and is hot .292 and 5 RPG in their last 7.

ATL pitching:
ATL sends Kawakami to the mound. Kawakami (6-10, 4.08 ERA) has struggled on the road as his ERA grows half a point to 4.54, his whip grows from 1.36 to 1.56, he has give up 11 of his 14 HR on the road and has struggled with his command on the road allowing 31 BBs and 44Ks. ATL is 11-13 in Kawakami's starts and 6-6 in his road starts. Kawakami has been WOEFUL against Florida this season with an ERA of 8.4 and a WHIP of 1.687 and an 0-2 record in 2 starts. The most recent of which was Vs. Johnson in which atlanta lost 6-3. I see no substantial differentiation between ATL's bullpen this season at home and on the road.

FLA Hitting:
FLA is hitting .265 this season but that number has improved to .269 vs righties and .272 at home. Their run production has not differentiated significantly in these games however as they average 4.7 RPG have scored 4.6 RPG vs righties and 4.8 RPG at home. Florida hitting has been relatively better over their last 7 games hitting .276 however run production has actually decreased in those games to 4.3 RPG.

FLA pitching:
Josh Johnson takes the mound for FLA and he has put up great numbers on the season with a 13-3 record, an era of 3.04 and a whip of 1.107. Florida is 19-7 in Johnson's starts this season. Johnson has been even more dominant at home (7-1, 2.26, 1.038) and FLA is 11-2 in those games. Johnson also boasts a 4-1 K/BB ratio at home. Finally, Johnson has been equaly dominant vs the Bravos in his career with a 4-1 record (1-0 this season) with an ERA of 2.87 but his whip has grown to 1.425. The fish are 6-3 in Johnson's starts vs the braves. While Johnson has succeeded at home the same cannot be said of the Marlin's pen at home. Also Johnson has thrown less than 100 pitches in 4 of his last 5 starts so look for the big man to go over the century mark in this pivotal wild card matchup. The fish bullpen's ERA has grown for 3.85 to 4.65 in home action as has WHIP from 1.427 to 1.564. The Marlins pen has also allowed 25 HRs at home.

Final thoughts:
I really like Johnson, and I feel the numbers confirm my early lean on FLA. Johnson has been great at home and Kawakami has been bad vs. FLA. I feel each teams bats are roughly a push and I'll easily take Johnson>Kawakami. The fish pen scares the piss out of me though which is why I'll only be playing this for 1 unit.

The Play:
Marlins to win 1 unit.
I'll be waiting til gametime to put the play in as the line is dropping and I think it will continue to do so.

Although this did not cash, Cup, you did a very nice write up, and in my opinion the thoughts count 10X more than 1 unit lost.

[oda11]

oda11 GL

Thank you same to you!

[therber2]

ATL/FL,
WA/SD,
AZ/LAD,
LAD,
NYY/BALT,
KC/OAK,
LAA/SEA,

Right now (if I had more time to analyze) these would be the only type of wagers I'd be comfortable with. Once I'm up and running again I think I'm going to go back to the . In general I'm playing everything a whole lot lighter right now; just a vibe to lay off and hold profits. I am not reading the games well. I want to see how the teams perform now. Good luck to all of you.

Today a few leans for me are:
White Sox
Orioles (good value +1.5 EV) play it light though.
I think I'll take the wager that the pirates will come back after the double upset.
Watch Texas, watch the Dodgers
Cubs
Marlins
Detroit

[therber2]

Leans for Tuesday:
Phillies RL or ML
Pirates ML
Nats ML maybe...

Good luck everyone!

9/1/09 Picks
ATL BRAVES -105 [T HUDSON -R/A SANCHEZ -R] leaning more on marlins
CIN REDS -111 [C MORTON -R/J LEHR -R] maybe (I'll wager that the pirates don't get swept all the way though).
STL CARDINALS -1½+115 [B LOOPER -R/J PINEIRO -R] Hmm
TOR BLUE JAYS GM1 +134 [RZEPZNSKI -L/D NIPPERT -R] Same thing Blue jays could win this one but I bet the Rangers don't get swept
DET TIGERS -200 [C CARRASCO-R/E JACKSON -R]

Good luck gentleman!

[oda11]

Good luck gentleman!

[oda11]

Cardss for Tuesday:
Giants ML (changed my mind with Phillies) 1u
Pirates ML 3u
Nats ML 1u
Brewers ML 1u
Indians ML 1u
Rays ML 1u
And a parlay of all to risk .05u

I will probably get a lot of heat from these dogs hehe. Good luck everybody.

[MexicanStallion]

Cardss for Tuesday:
Giants ML (changed my mind with Phillies) 1u
Pirates ML 3u
Nats ML 1u
Brewers ML 1u
Indians ML 1u
Rays ML 1u
And a parlay of all to risk .05u

I will probably get a lot of heat from these dogs hehe. Good luck everybody.

Good luck

[$KARMA$]

Toronto / Texas G1 U 9.5

[oda11]

Good luck

Thank you, good luck to you as well.

[AceofSP2107]

...Phillies Tonite...