Betting Baseball

[PsychoQ]

I just started betting this year and i was wondering how hard it is to bet baseball or if it easy hell i don't really know. Theirs almost 200 games to i guess there is a lot of money to be made rite?

[coldhardfacts]

I just started betting this year and i was wondering how hard it is to bet baseball or if it easy hell i don't really know. Theirs almost 200 games to i guess there is a lot of money to be made rite?

Yes, there is. But you have to pick your spots very judiciously.

[c-rok]

baseball is the second easiest sport to beat after football

[B1GER1C828]

baseball is the second easiest sport to beat after football

HAHAHAHAHAHAH

well football is considered the hardest sport 2 bet because how good the lines are made

but anyhow, baseball can b easy, make sure u look for good lines and bullpens are the key!

[ryanspeer2001]

I find there to be 2 consistent and dependable factors that make betting on baseball a bit easier.

1. Bet against public favorites. Yankees, Red Sox, Mets ML are almost always off 20-40+pts off the real value.

2. Playing the better bullpen + home dogs can be steady profit. If you have a home team that is +125 against a non-elite road team check out the bullpens because very often a game can be decided late by the better bullpen when two mediocre teams are playing.

[smitch124]

2. Playing the better bullpen + home dogs can be steady profit. If you have a home team that is +125 against a non-elite road team check out the bullpens because very often a game can be decided late by the better bullpen when two mediocre teams are playing.

Ryan what info do you rely on to compare bullpens? and do you have a way to quantify how much work the bullpen has had lately in your evaluation?

[ryanspeer2001]

Ryan what info do you rely on to compare bullpens? and do you have a way to quantify how much work the bullpen has had lately in your evaluation?

I rely on a bevy of factors.

First things first before even checking out BABIP and ERA and WHIP I look at how many innings pitched by both bullpens in the last 72 hours. I measure in time not in games played recently to get an idea of how rested they are as a unit.

Secondly I examine the starting pitcher to get an idea of how long I can expect them to last before the bullpen is used. Its not uncommon to have a stellar bullpen not get used because that clubs 1 good starter regularly goes 7+ innings. Which opens up other things to look at before capping the game at the bullpen level.

Finally I will look at how both bullpens ERA's and WHIP since I find BABIP to be a bit more effective for starting pitchers and in a long term scenario not a single game.

In the event a home dog has a bullpen that regularly outperforms an opposing favorites bullpen AND has been less active in the last 72 hours I will play the home dog. You can generally assume the line is being turned over to the road team becuase of a standard #1 pitcher or an awesome #2 pitcher.

DO NOT USE THIS METHOD when the road team is a huge favortie because they have their ace out there ALA C.C Sabathia or Cole Hamels. You will have to look elswewhere in the match-up to find your edge.

[smitch124]

I rely on a bevy of factors.

First things first before even checking out BABIP and ERA and WHIP I look at how many innings pitched by both bullpens in the last 72 hours. I measure in time not in games played recently to get an idea of how rested they are as a unit.

Secondly I examine the starting pitcher to get an idea of how long I can expect them to last before the bullpen is used. Its not uncommon to have a stellar bullpen not get used because that clubs 1 good starter regularly goes 7+ innings. Which opens up other things to look at before capping the game at the bullpen level.

Finally I will look at how both bullpens ERA's and WHIP since I find BABIP to be a bit more effective for starting pitchers and in a long term scenario not a single game.

In the event a home dog has a bullpen that regularly outperforms an opposing favorites bullpen AND has been less active in the last 72 hours I will play the home dog. You can generally assume the line is being turned over to the road team becuase of a standard #1 pitcher or an awesome #2 pitcher.

DO NOT USE THIS METHOD when the road team is a huge favortie because they have their ace out there ALA C.C Sabathia or Cole Hamels. You will have to look elswewhere in the match-up to find your edge.

Appreciate the response, I have a baseball model and I'm looking for a way to improve how it accounts for the bullpens.

[ryanspeer2001]

Appreciate the response, I have a baseball model and I'm looking for a way to improve how it accounts for the bullpens.

Once you have it completed I'd be interested in taking a look.