2-1 yesterday +1.02 (19-7 last 26) 3 GAMES FOR MONDAY

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  • Mr. Miyagi
    SBR Rookie
    • 01-04-13
    • 31

    #1
    2-1 yesterday +1.02 (19-7 last 26) 3 GAMES FOR MONDAY
    Sunday’s Recap (2-1 +1.05 units)
    TB Rays -1.5
    ATL Braves +115
    NYY/SDP O 7.5
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Rangers LHP Martin Perez (3-3, 3.93 ERA) at Angels RHP Jerome Williams (5-7, 4.60 ERA), 7:05 PM PST

    Line: TEX -110, LAA +100

    Today we’ll breakdown Game 1 of 3 in this division rivalry match up as the Rangers travel to Southern California to face the Los Angeles Angels. The Angels are falling behind the pack as they sit 12.5 games out first place while the Rangers who have won 6 of 7 come into tonight’s game trailing the first place Athletics by 2.5 games.

    Ron Washington will hand the ball to Martin Perez in game 1 with hopes that the Rangers can continue their hot play. The 23 year old youngster will be starting his 16th career game and it looks like he’s starting to develop into a big league pitcher. He just faced the Angels last time out going 7 1/3, scattering 4 hits while allowing 1 earned run.

    Journeyman Jerome Williams gets the nod for the Angels looking for his 39th career win through 108 starts. He hasn't won since June 11th and we don’t expect him to come away with a W tonight. Nelson (4 HRS, .611 BA) and Beltre (1 HR, .429 BA) own this guy and we expect one if not both of them to take Williams deep tonight. It should be a quick trip to the showers for Williams here as he’s been running on fumes for weeks.

    With the Rangers rolling and the Angels struggling this is a story of two teams going in very opposite directions. We expect the Rangers to put up a 5 spot against Williams in game 1 and coast to an easy victory

    Don’t let the smallish line fool you, Rangers big.

    Prediction: Rangers 7, Angels 4, PLAY ON RANGERS -110

    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Brewers RHP Tyler Thornburg (1-0, 2.22 ERA) at Giants RHP Chad Gaudin (5-2, 2.64 ERA), 10:05 EST.

    Line: SF -160, MIL +145

    The Brewers visit the Giants for a 3 game series featuring two teams with not much to play for. The Brewers have scored 10 runs in their past 4 games and narrowly avoided a sweep at home against the Nationals yesterday. Now they travel out to play 9 road games in the next 10 days starting in San Francisco.

    The hapless Brewers send out 24 year old Tyler Thornburg to make his second start of the year. He’s small in stature but can really throw it, when dialed in his fastball can hit the high 90’s. As with most young pitchers control is usually the underlying issue and with Thornburg it’s no different. The Giants should be able to work his pitch count up which will lead to some walks which could lead to a potential big inning.

    The Giants send 11 year journeyman Chad Gaudin to the hill. He’s pitched surprisingly well since being thrust into a starters roll last June. In his 9 starts this year he’s pitched a strong 49 innings allowing 17 runs and only 5 homeruns. We keep waiting for the wheels to fall off for this guy and we thought they would after his Las Vegas groping incident but he’s kept it together and keeps stringing together quality outings.

    Both teams have really been struggling the past two months. However, as bad as the Giants have been, Gaudin has been pitching like a seasoned veteran. We expect him to keep the Brewers off balance for long enough before he turns the game over to the bullpen.

    Prediction: Giants 5, Brewers 2, PLAY ON: Giants -1.5 +145

    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Blue Jays RHP R.A. Dickey (8-11, 4.66 ERA) at Mariners RHP Hisashi Iwakuma (10-4, 2.76 ERA), 10:05 PM EST

    Line: SEA -120, TOR +110

    The Blue Jays travel up the coast to Seattle as they close out a brutal 10 game West Coast road trip with a 3 game series against the Mariners. Yesterday, the Blue Jays scored two runs in the 8th, then 2 more in the 9th to avoid a 4 game sweep against the Angels. The Mariners are back home and have been playing better ball lately.

    Knuckle balling R.A. Dickey gets the start for the underachieving Blue Jays. Dickey was awarded an ace type contract this past off season and so far he has not lived up to the hype which surrounded him last year. R.A.’s last win came July 1 against the Tigers, since then he’s given up 20 earned runs in his last 5 starts. He’ll eat some innings, but unless the Jays can put up 4 or 5 runs it’s not likely they’ll come away victorious.

    The Mariners send out second year sensation Iwakuma who has been lights out all year. The Japanese born pitcher started in the Mariners bullpen last year and was given a chance to start and has taken full advantage of his opportunity. His .97 WHIP trails only Max Scherzer this year and he also ranks in the top 10 in strikeouts and ERA. He is one of the top pitchers in the American League and should be able to keep the Blue Jays in check tonight.

    Backing an undervalued Iwakuma and his profitable 9-3 home record here is a no brainer, especially at this price. We like the Mariners to get enough runs across against Dickey to get the job done.

    Prediction: Mariners 7, Blue Jays 3, PLAY ON: Mariners -120
  • sploofdogg
    SBR Sharp
    • 01-20-13
    • 335

    #2
    Like the analysis. I'm gonna ride with you on the Rangers, I like Gomez a lot. Already locked in in the other side of Giants, I took Brewers +149. R.A. Dickey is too npredictable these days. I'd like to go large on that under but he could give up 5 easy runs.
    Comment
    • ItsMeMrMattE
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 08-30-10
      • 5294

      #3
      was looking into that SEA game as well. imo the line looks fishy its so far off. the last time these two pitchers faced each other it was in TOR but SEA still won 8-1 as a 131 dog. i know that doesnt indicated much for how this one will go but still expected this line to be juicier. cant decided if i want to wait and look at line movement or just lock it in now. you think it will hit over -130 by closing?
      Comment
      • hubbard689
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 10-28-12
        • 583

        #4
        So do you think TEX/LAA o8.5 is fairly safe too OP?
        Comment
        • Charlie103
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 07-14-13
          • 560

          #5
          Thanks GL
          Comment
          • innovation
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 01-27-12
            • 6218

            #6
            Good run.... You have stones playing a run line in a night game @ giants.
            Comment
            • Down_Goes Bookie
              SBR Sharp
              • 06-18-13
              • 422

              #7
              Originally posted by Mr. Miyagi
              Iwakuma who has been lights out all year.
              lights out all year, not hardly.... surrendering 4, 4, 4, 4 and 6 ER in starts June 16-July 9. Iwakuma has righted the ship since then, but now is talking about dealing with pain in his neck since his last start (a very tidy outing vs. the Red Sox at home). Excellent pitcher yes, but recent history has shown he can be hit fairly hard.

              I do like the call but given that Dickey can revert to Cy Young form with no notice I may lay off this one, TBD... Hernandez vs. Johnson on tap Tuesday night, will be heavy juice but still...

              Overall Miyagi excellent analyses. Great work.
              Comment
              • jay89
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 08-04-13
                • 671

                #8
                Iwakuma previous start vs the jays: 1 run @ the rogers center.

                Dickey returns to a pitcher friendly park (like citi field), so I believe he will have a solid outing.

                With the mariners hitting lately, they have the edge. I also went with the UNDER 4 in 5 innings. Dickey tends to get hit up late in starts. and the Jays offense lately has been asleep for the first half of the game.
                Comment
                • jay89
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 08-04-13
                  • 671

                  #9
                  Rangers game is really a toss up if Nelson doesn't play tonight

                  edit: as per rotoworld, cruz will accept his suspension
                  Find all the latest Rotoworld fantasy sports news, live coverage, videos, highlights, stats, predictions, and results right here on NBC Sports.
                  Comment
                  • Mr. Miyagi
                    SBR Rookie
                    • 01-04-13
                    • 31

                    #10
                    Originally posted by jay89
                    Rangers game is really a toss up if Nelson doesn't play tonight

                    edit: as per rotoworld, cruz will accept his suspension
                    http://www.rotoworld.com/headlines/m...ing-suspension
                    Ouch, that hurts tonight as bets are already in but I still like the play even without Cruz in there. However, the Rangers now have little to zero chance of doing anything in the postseason. This lineup all of sudden looks very average.
                    Comment
                    • Mr. Miyagi
                      SBR Rookie
                      • 01-04-13
                      • 31

                      #11
                      Originally posted by hubbard689
                      So do you think TEX/LAA o8.5 is fairly safe too OP?
                      Definitely do not like the under, especially now without Cuz in the lineup. Needless to say this is a huge loss for the Rangers.
                      Comment
                      • Mr. Miyagi
                        SBR Rookie
                        • 01-04-13
                        • 31

                        #12
                        Originally posted by innovation
                        Good run.... You have stones playing a run line in a night game @ giants.
                        I just don't see the Brewers scoring more than 2 runs. I like the Giants to score 4 minimum so I'll take may chances that Gaudin holds up his end but keep the Brewers bats quiet. But, yes always risky playing run lines at NL West parks.
                        Comment
                        • RavensFan2k3
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 08-18-12
                          • 17378

                          #13
                          I like the Giants, my only concern is that Milwalkee has hit Gaudin well, although in 5 games(4.2 IP), none starts. Small sample size tho
                          Comment
                          • Mr. Miyagi
                            SBR Rookie
                            • 01-04-13
                            • 31

                            #14
                            Originally posted by RavensFan2k3
                            I like the Giants, my only concern is that Milwalkee has hit Gaudin well, although in 5 games(4.2 IP), none starts. Small sample size tho
                            ??? Not sure where you dug this stat up? Current Brewers hitters are 1 for 8 off Gaudin. The lone hit was a bunt single by Carlos Gomez.
                            Comment
                            • RavensFan2k3
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 08-18-12
                              • 17378

                              #15
                              Originally posted by Mr. Miyagi
                              ??? Not sure where you dug this stat up? Current Brewers hitters are 1 for 8 off Gaudin. The lone hit was a bunt single by Carlos Gomez.
                              View the full batter vs. pitching stats of Los Angeles Dodgers Relief Pitcher Chad Gaudin on ESPN. Includes full stats per MLB opponent.
                              Comment
                              • Mr. Miyagi
                                SBR Rookie
                                • 01-04-13
                                • 31

                                #16
                                Originally posted by RavensFan2k3
                                Oh yeah, my bad, you're looking at career numbers. I was looking at this season. Gaudin is a much different pitcher this year than years past for whatever reason, probably Dave Righetti. I don't put too much stock into numbers from years ago just because so much can change season after season. BOL to whichever you go RavensFan.
                                Comment
                                • RavensFan2k3
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 08-18-12
                                  • 17378

                                  #17
                                  Im with ya on this bro
                                  Comment
                                  • THE REVEREND
                                    SBR Hustler
                                    • 09-07-10
                                    • 62

                                    #18
                                    Nice job,Mr.Miyagi! Giants pull it off late +150. Keep up the good work!
                                    Comment
                                    • Mr. Miyagi
                                      SBR Rookie
                                      • 01-04-13
                                      • 31

                                      #19
                                      Thanks Reverend, air balled the Mariners call but still another 2-1 day with a unit +. Just doing what we do my friend. One play up for tomorrow.
                                      Comment
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