lets hear it, give me some plays to talk bout..
i played..
cle +110
cle tt ov 4 +105
so far
i played..
cle +110
cle tt ov 4 +105
so far
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Like CHW ff and for that matter the game just cuz Detroits pen is SO bad.Comment -
kc/ny h/r/e un 28 -135..just tail these but great ump for this one also..Comment -
Any reason not to like Dumpster against SEA? Boston destroys righties.Comment -
red sox, yanks, nats tonite...i liked dbacks til they went into extras last nite as well...thats all so farComment -
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Went against you on the Jays/Indians game. Went with Minny/Tampa u 8 and Yankees -125.
Haven't really looked at any night games. Waiting on you guys to discuss and help me out!
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had to take yanks at -120. day game at home...couldnt pass it up. and yea i lean under in the yanks kc game. dunno what the temp is out there but hopefully the ball wont be traveling extra far...
and i dont understand the red sox line either...goin way down...saw some people on sbr on seattle also...thats a head scratcher...maybe people are just fading dempster...he hasnt been bad in his last few starts only giving up 2 ER in each...Comment -
i dont blame you for playing nyy, like i said while i kinda like kc i thought the price was shitty to back them. im looking bos/sea over again right now but yea almost have to plat sox unless i see something i really dont like..Comment -
trying real hard noT to place any bets today!
ahh but the degenerate in me is a beast to control.Comment -
why big bear? u dont see anythinn u like?Comment -
i've changed my strategy a bit. I used to bet a lot of $20 parlays for 6 teams maybe a 4 team parlay for $50 or $100....
Now i have been making maybe 1 or 2 bets a week and usually go about $500 a game.
I have built up a decent bankroll now and i'm afraid of giving it all back.
Maybe i should do like most people on here and bet multiple games a day with $20 units but will the money ever add up to something significant doing $20 a game?
i've never before done multiple single bets in a day. I'm afraid if i do that and make my self have smaller bets then i will get lazy and not put as much thought into my plays and be lucky to tread water betting 45-50% win ratioComment -
On clev as well. Will also be on Bos, Det, Atl and possibly LadComment -
His stats from last season with the Mariners don't look too shabby. Looks like he was hurt by lack of run support.
Here's a look at his minor league numbers this season
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no idea why cards are so cheap either? they can and will hit edwin.Comment -
feel u bb...thats the smart way to do it...one play a day or somethin along those lines...i jus cant help myself thoComment -
only thing i saw was not great history with this ump..not a lot of gms and some were long time ago so not really big deal..
dempster with nelson calling balls and strikes.
Close [X] / Permanent LinkYear-by-Year: Jeff Nelson
Click year to see all splits · SHARE using Permanent Link
1999 0 0 0.00 1 1 0 0 0 0 7.0 4 0 0 0 3 0 7 0 0 28 1.000 9.0 2.33 2001 0 1 .000 7.20 1 1 0 0 0 0 5.0 6 4 4 0 3 0 3 0 0 23 1.800 5.4 1.00 2006 0 1 .000 40.50 2 0 0 0 0 0 0.2 4 3 3 0 4 1 1 0 0 10 12.000 13.5 0.25 2011 0 0 11.12 1 1 0 0 0 0 5.2 9 7 7 3 3 0 3 0 0 29 2.118 4.8 1.00 2013 0 1 .000 2.57 1 1 0 0 0 0 7.0 5 4 2 1 1 0 8 0 1 28 0.857 10.3 8.00 Career Total 0 3 .000 5.68 6 4 0 0 0 0 25.1 28 18 16 4 14 1 22 0 1 118 1.658 7.8 1.57 Comment -
We are thinking alike
Contains the following 4 Propositions
(8.44 to 1 Odds)
# 1 NY YANKEES 0 (-116) Pitching Option: Action
KANSAS CITY (E Santana -R) vs NY YANKEES (A Pettitte -L)
MLB at 07/11/2013 1:05:00 PM
# 2 BOSTON 0 (-122) Pitching Option: Action
BOSTON (R Dempster -R) vs SEATTLE (Er Ramirez -R)
MLB at 07/11/2013 3:40:00 PM
# 3 WASHINGTON 0 (-137) Pitching Option: Action
WASHINGTON (J Zimmermann -R) vs PHILADELPHIA (K Kendrick -R)
MLB at 07/11/2013 7:05:00 PM
# 4 LA DODGERS 0 (-164) Pitching Option: Action
COLORADO (D Pomeranz -L) vs LA DODGERS (C Capuano -L)
MLB at 07/11/2013 10:10:00 PMComment -
Looking at Whitesox ff and Ariz FFComment -
BAL ML
Gonzalez has been pitching effectively. 30 yr old minor league journeyman Ross Wolf, with 40 IP of major league experience, mounts the bump for Texas, making his second major league start. Wolf did start 6 games in AAA this year with a 1.85 ERA and 1.06 WHIP though his peripherals were poor. Fastball tops out at 91 mph. Looking for Balty to send Wolf howling to the showers by the fifth inning.Comment -
Passing on Wsox.Comment -
Took Tigers -1 and Yanks -1. Such a square and homer lol. GL man.Comment -
i expect miley to go 8 innings and give up no more than 2 ERComment -
KC, Indians and White Sox in the am
Giants and possible Nats later wanted to bet Boston last night but waited. Line moving 13 cents the other way has me pausing a second.Comment -
3-0 Royals
Need some runs Yankees!!
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Good luck Hot Wings, always enjoy your posts.
Bank- here are some notes on Seattle's starter today.
Because of iffy strikeout rates in the minor leagues, the projection systems don’t like like Erasmo. A below-average strikeout rate, buffeted by a below-average ground ball rate, can only last so long on the stamina provided by an above-average walk rate. And of course, in the meantime, Ramirez lost his best asset: the comfy soft pillow of a home park that SafeCo used to be. Still, Seattle is cold, and home runs suffer shrinkage in cold weather. Perhaps SafeCo provides enough comfort that we can take the under on Ramirez’ Steamer-projected 1.04 home runs per nine. He never had a homer problem, even in the PCL.
Still, take a few homers out of the equation, and those projections still don’t allure. And yet we have this changeup. That’s a heck of a change piece. Last year, he had as much x-movement on the pitch as Fernando Rodney did. And while Rodney throws 96 with an 84 mph change, Ramirez throws 93 with an 81 mph change — and has control. That’s some good motion of the ocean.
Since a changeup has either no platoon split or a reverse one, Ramirez is in a good position with only his fastballs and his changeup. He has a legitimate curve and slider combo that he can use against same-handed hitters. Well, the curve may fall by the bedside as he ages. Right now, it’s just a change of speed, as it goes 78 mph, since it doesn’t get whiffs, grounders, or strikes like the rest of his pitches. Maybe he should focus on the slider, which looks about average in most respects. An average slider, that ridiculous changeup, and 93 with two fastballs seems like a decent arsenal.
So why the disconnect between looks and performance? Maybe he just needs to learn the intricacies of his game. He actually has a reverse platoon split right now — his strikeout rate has jumped in both the majors and minors against lefties, and some changeups have reverse splits, so that wouldn’t be strange. The slider isn’t great, but if he throws the curve less, and tightens that primary breaking pitch, he can have a weapon against same-handed hitters. He’s already doing some of this, since he throws his slider twice as much as his change against righties.
But the real reason we may not have seen this coming is hidden velocity spike. Ramirez was more high eighties/low nineties when he first signed with the team. Last year, he averaged 93 on the heater. That creates more separation between his hard and soft stuff.
So let’s turn on the rotating bed and the rosy lava lamps and take the over on the projected strikeout rates. With those whiffs, that fastball, and great control, Ramirez can probably repeat his 20-ish % strikeout rate, which is well above the 18.2% strikeout rate that AL starters were showing as a group last year. He likes the high heat, so the fly balls won’t go away, but his park will do enough to mitigate that damage.Comment
