2013 MLB thread

1Time! · 05-30-13, 10:30 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Here's some points, PP. Go gamble in the only way you know how anymore.

this cracked me up!
Love how they come out the woodwork...
Cmon Dodgers do it for the good guys!

PAULYPOKER · 05-30-13, 10:32 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Here's some points, PP. Go gamble in the only way you know how anymore.Points Awarded:

PAULYPOKER gave No coincidences 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.

Stick em up your ass and gargle them for awhile......

You got a tough road ahead of you for at least 2 weeks pal..........

No coincidences · 05-30-13, 10:34 PM

Originally posted by PAULYPOKER

Stick em up your ass and gargle them for awhile......

You got a tough road ahead of you for at least 2 weeks pal..........

Come on -- you know you're going to go out and gamble them away. Sorry it was only 2 points. I wish I could give you more to feed your addiction, because we all know this is your last resort.

No coincidences · 05-30-13, 10:37 PM

I probably do have a "tough road ahead" soon, BTW, dipshit. I'm up over 60 units and have gone through very few rough patches. It's called variance -- not some voo-doo curse. Now put that tin-foil hat back on and wait for our big, bad gubment to swallow you whole, old man river (despite the fact that you've never worked an honest day in your life to contribute to our society in any way, shape or form).

PAULYPOKER · 05-30-13, 10:38 PM

Coin,
who is the biggest degenerate, shut in, on this site or internet for that matter, tryin to give out advice........

Pricelesssssssssssssssssssssssssssss.... .......................................

No coincidences · 05-30-13, 11:02 PM

Originally posted by PAULYPOKER

Coin,
who is the biggest degenerate, shut in, on this site or internet for that matter, tryin to give out advice........

Pricelesssssssssssssssssssssssssssss.... .......................................

In other words, I hit too close to home.

I can read you like a book.

PAULYPOKER · 05-30-13, 11:10 PM

I'm patiently waiting for your plays to be released coin.......

Who they gonna be?

Be sure to keep me in mind when you select them........

No coincidences · 05-30-13, 11:55 PM

3-7, -7.74U today
297-275, +57.87U thread

Made 2.56U back tonight after the afternoon debacle.

1Time! · 05-31-13, 12:08 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

3-7, -7.74U today
297-275, +57.87U thread

Made 2.56U back tonight after the afternoon debacle.

Keep on truckin' NC

No coincidences · 05-31-13, 12:09 AM

Originally posted by 1Time!

Keep on truckin' NC

Grind for sure.

Friday's leans:

ARI +107
BOS +100
CLE +109
SF +131

2daBank · 05-31-13, 01:08 AM

damn im away all day and looks like some unnecessary hating going on against my boy nc, wtf wrong with you ppl? (well we all know what wrong with pauly which a shame i remember when he was a decent poster)..this line was classic "i dont understand your picks", translation "i play every heavy fav, hit 55%, and lose money" what a clown..

anyway didnt get to see your plays..was with you on oak (and i lost over, double wammy) and anyone who hating on that prob been losing going against them all week while we were cashing..hope some got on the gravy wind tunnel over in tex

and only other bases i played was tribe as my love affair with kazmir has been well documented in Biffs thread (starting to feel like it justified) ..my heavy shit tonight was lbj 0v 27.5 -170 (speaking of chalk eating, lol) then had couple decent hits on heat live which was nice..

getting tons of rain in stl which i feel bad for anyone on kc today cause that gm gonna be delayed forever (only reason i didnt play them), anyone looking at sf/cards series just know you gonna be dealing with delays and possible wash outs the next 2 days...anyway have some time now so figure start talking bout card..

kc gonna be at huge disadvantage in tex 2marro to the point think holland price actually justified (hell kc still waiting around wondering if they gonna finish up, lol), prob looking at tex either rl or -1 line..

1st glance id lean scrubbies (getting easier to bet them after actually winning a few with them last series).. maybe ff tho cause garza still stupid and will have thrown 100 pitches by 5th..

just starting to look at the card really just wanted to say anyone hating outta find something more productive to do or go outside and act disrespectful where it not so safe (and yea i have tons of post but prob outside more than any of you hating clowns)..

Marooner · 05-31-13, 01:13 AM

Originally posted by 2daBank

damn im away all day and looks like some unnecessary hating going on against my boy nc, wtf wrong with you ppl? (well we all know what wrong with pauly which a shame i remember when he was a decent poster)..this line was classic "i dont understand your picks", translation "i play every heavy fav, hit 55%, and lose money" what a clown..

anyway didnt get to see your plays..was with you on oak (and i lost over, double wammy) and anyone who hating on that prob been losing going against them all week while we were cashing..hope some got on the gravy wind tunnel over in tex

and only other bases i played was tribe as my love affair with kazmir has been well documented in Biffs thread (starting to feel like it justified) ..my heavy shit tonight was lbj 0v 27.5 -170 (speaking of chalk eating, lol) then had couple decent hits on heat live which was nice..

getting tons of rain in stl which i feel bad for anyone on kc today cause that gm gonna be delayed forever (only reason i didnt play them), anyone looking at sf/cards series just know you gonna be dealing with delays and possible wash outs the next 2 days...anyway have some time now so figure start talking bout card..

kc gonna be at huge disadvantage in tex 2marro to the point think holland price actually justified (hell kc still waiting around wondering if they gonna finish up, lol), prob looking at tex either rl or -1 line..

1st glance id lean scrubbies (getting easier to bet them after actually winning a few with them last series).. maybe ff tho cause garza still stupid and will have thrown 100 pitches by 5th..

just starting to look at the card really just wanted to say anyone hating outta find something more productive to do or go outside and act disrespectful where it not so safe (and yea i have tons of post but prob outside more than any of you hating clowns)..

seek help.

2daBank · 05-31-13, 01:14 AM

Originally posted by Marooner

seek help.

i could help you kid, just come to stl and ill fix what your daddy failed to do in raising you..

Marooner · 05-31-13, 01:16 AM

Originally posted by 2daBank

i could help you kid, just come to stl and ill fix what your daddy failed to do in raising you..

wow... you went to more crazy. bold play sir.

No coincidences · 05-31-13, 01:43 AM

Originally posted by Marooner

wow... you went to more crazy. bold play sir.

Whose ghost are you again?

2daBank · 05-31-13, 01:58 AM

not big fan of being on the side as everyone and laying 1.5 on a home team at even money no less but man this spot getting bad for kc, still sitting around and could possible walk away with a loss if the gm gets called as it would revert back to the end of the 8th (how demoralizing would that be?) even if they do play it what time kc gonna show up it tex? throw in should be nice little wind tunnel where holland knows how to deal with it and davis well doesnt..square me the penetrate up..tex-1.5 ev

2daBank · 05-31-13, 01:59 AM

NC talk to me bout why you like zona? anything more than you getting the far better team at + money?

No coincidences · 05-31-13, 08:43 AM

Originally posted by 2daBank

not big fan of being on the side as everyone and laying 1.5 on a home team at even money no less but man this spot getting bad for kc, still sitting around and could possible walk away with a loss if the gm gets called as it would revert back to the end of the 8th (how demoralizing would that be?) even if they do play it what time kc gonna show up it tex? throw in should be nice little wind tunnel where holland knows how to deal with it and davis well doesnt..square me the penetrate up..tex-1.5 ev

Makes sense. Wade Davis in Arlington seems like a recipe for disaster.

No coincidences · 05-31-13, 08:45 AM

Originally posted by 2daBank

NC talk to me bout why you like zona? anything more than you getting the far better team at + money?

That's about it. Garza + the Cubs bullpen = shakiness to say the least. Team is hot though. Can't argue with that. Don't f**k with a winning streak.

No coincidences · 05-31-13, 08:58 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Grind for sure.

Friday's leans:

ARI +107
BOS +100
CLE +109
SF +131

Also kind of like the White Sox. Oakland coming off an emotionally draining series and just had their long win streak snapped, and Colon at -180 always seems fadeable.

Missed a much better # with Cleveland. Hope it bounces back a little.

RavensFan2k3 · 05-31-13, 09:23 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Also kind of like the White Sox. Oakland coming off an emotionally draining series and just had their long win streak snapped, and Colon at -180 always seems fadeable.

Missed a much better # with Cleveland. Hope it bounces back a little.

It will bounce back

Vasco · 05-31-13, 12:08 PM

Pirates are hot, but Reds -125 to EV? Not buying it. Reds looks like the play.

RavensFan2k3 · 05-31-13, 12:33 PM

Originally posted by Vasco

Pirates are hot, but Reds -125 to EV? Not buying it. Reds looks like the play.

I agree

Lombatso · 05-31-13, 12:51 PM

Hi fellas I'm brand new to the thread after stumbling onto this site. Basically been tailing no coin here and there to get some confidence with my own picks (NO COIN YOU KILL IT). I met some guy the other day that was telling me about his "streak rule" that I wanted to share. He said he bets any team that has won 3 straight until they lose and bets against any team that has lost 3 straight until they win. Example- the Cubs currently, I have made good money during this 7 game win streak. I just started doing this about a week or two ago and had some success since baseball is so streaky. Love to know what u guys think.

No coincidences · 05-31-13, 01:20 PM

ARI/CHC over 10.5 (2.2U to win 2)
ARI/CHC FF over 6 +100 (1U to win 1)
ARI TT over 5 (1.25U to win 1)
ARI +110 (1U to win 1.1)

HOT WINGS · 05-31-13, 01:23 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

ARI/CHC over 10.5 (2.2U to win 2)
ARI/CHC FF over 6 +100 (1U to win 1)
ARI TT over 5 (1.25U to win 1)
ARI +110 (1U to win 1.1)

With you on all but the FF for same amounts. Obviously like FF as well. Good luck!

PAULYPOKER · 05-31-13, 01:25 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

ARI/CHC over 10.5 (2.2U to win 2)
ARI/CHC FF over 6 +100 (1U to win 1)
ARI TT over 5 (1.25U to win 1)
ARI +110 (1U to win 1.1)

Went from leans to totals

Your fukkin cage is rattled and your screws have come loose...........

No coincidences · 05-31-13, 01:30 PM

Originally posted by HOT WINGS

With you on all but the FF for same amounts. Obviously like FF as well. Good luck!

Good luck, HW.

HarHar00 · 05-31-13, 01:39 PM

Garza is gonna keep them under 5 today

EXhoosier10 · 05-31-13, 02:15 PM

Originally posted by Lombatso

Hi fellas I'm brand new to the thread after stumbling onto this site. Basically been tailing no coin here and there to get some confidence with my own picks (NO COIN YOU KILL IT). I met some guy the other day that was telling me about his "streak rule" that I wanted to share. He said he bets any team that has won 3 straight until they lose and bets against any team that has lost 3 straight until they win. Example- the Cubs currently, I have made good money during this 7 game win streak. I just started doing this about a week or two ago and had some success since baseball is so streaky. Love to know what u guys think.

Every streak ends. I wouldn't blindly bet on/against any kind of streak in any sport unless historically and recently it has been extremely profitable. I would backtest to see if it is before blindly making those types of plays. just my 2 cents, though

No coincidences · 05-31-13, 02:19 PM

Originally posted by EXhoosier10

Every streak ends. I wouldn't blindly bet on/against any kind of streak in any sport unless historically and recently it has been extremely profitable. I would backtest to see if it is before blindly making those types of plays. just my 2 cents, though

There are certainly "hot" and "cold" streaks in baseball, but every game is an independent event and you should approach it as such. Just my take.

No coincidences · 05-31-13, 02:21 PM

SF +128 (1U to win 1.28)
CLE -101 (1.01U to win 1)
BOS +100 (1U to win 1)

Lombatso · 05-31-13, 02:41 PM

Thanks Hoosier and no coin for your input- took cubbies today, cubs TT over and 10.5 over... Possible good luck to the thread lol

fitguy67 · 05-31-13, 03:18 PM

Originally posted by Lombatso

Hi fellas I'm brand new to the thread after stumbling onto this site. Basically been tailing no coin here and there to get some confidence with my own picks (NO COIN YOU KILL IT). I met some guy the other day that was telling me about his "streak rule" that I wanted to share. He said he bets any team that has won 3 straight until they lose and bets against any team that has lost 3 straight until they win. Example- the Cubs currently, I have made good money during this 7 game win streak. I just started doing this about a week or two ago and had some success since baseball is so streaky. Love to know what u guys think.

Originally posted by EXhoosier10

Every streak ends. I wouldn't blindly bet on/against any kind of streak in any sport unless historically and recently it has been extremely profitable. I would backtest to see if it is before blindly making those types of plays. just my 2 cents, though

Originally posted by No coincidences

There are certainly "hot" and "cold" streaks in baseball, but every game is an independent event and you should approach it as such. Just my take.

spot on. would only add to this that $results over time depend on the aggrgated VALUE extracted from the lines you bet on...a team you've identified on a "situational" basis may indeed have won...but it may NOT have been a good value bet...keep doing this and you'll be -EV however impressive the W% of the strategy...

remember over the haul your yield/ROI = aggregate winning %/aggregate implied (by the book odds you got) winning %...

easy to see how as a streak progresses, people "wise up" to it...making the plays increasingly expensive/lower-value the longer the streak runs...even if the situational angle has an impressive W% it generally will be -EV because of this...

better to be a game-by-game value-hunter...this way ur free to take into account the streak and the extent to which it has been over-/under-appreciated by bettors relative to its historical predictive value...

any "system" or situational angle such as this...that tells u what to do (ie. back or fade) with insufficient attention (often zero) to price WILL fail...

this is why all manner of "chasing"/"line-clearing" is long-term -EV...cuz the focus is on "winning" (translation: buying into the play at whatever the cost to be in a position to win your damn chase or clear the damn line..."wheew, that was close, but we won")...ditto for buying into a play, price be damned, just to adhere to the streak-following method...so you "don't get left out"...not as dramatically catastrophic as chasing/line-clearing...but equally -EV per $ played...cuz it distracts u from...

the core consideration: is this a good play AT THE AVAILABLE PRICE? (anything that ignores those last 4 words is a recipe for long-terem -EV)

Gingerbread · 05-31-13, 03:28 PM

What do ya'll think about the Brewers tonight? Hamels at -125 seems like way too much and the Phils lineup looks really weak right now..thinking of fading them again tonight. -I know it's my first post in this thread but i've been following the discussions since MLB start. GJ so far NC keep it up, ignore the stupid haters obv.