[Jeff_Black]

Continues from: http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...pen-picks.html

Ahhh the last part of the tennis season. Usually my favourite part of the season is the packed part where we get 3 slams in the space of 6-7 months with clay, grass, hc season in between. That said some of my best form was during these later tournaments like Shanghai so hoping to keep it up and grind out a profit till the last match of the season.
Didn't actually realise there was DC on, (who does?) was gonna do some plays on the second reverse singles but there was a lot of dead rubbers so didnt bother. Anyway let's keep things rolling.

YTD: 190-156, +22.72u

ATP Metz 250, Mens Singles, R1
Damir Dzuhmir vs Guillermo Garcia-Lopez
Handicap: Damir Dzuhmir +3.0 @ 1.862 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Metz 250, Mens Singles, R1
Vincent Millot vs Benoit Paire
Handicap: Vincent Millot +3.5 @ 1.952 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP St Petersburg 250, Mens Singles, R1
Fernando Verdasco vs Dusan Lajovic
Total Score: Over 22.0 Games @ 1.769 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Lightning]

Interesting to note that we both think the Verdasco and Millot games will be close. I just took +3.5 to Lajovic. He showed great form in Los Cabos.

[pabonaparte]

need TB for Damir!

[Alright Alright]

damir dzuhmir really let you down after winning the first set

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Metz 250, Mens Singles, R1
Nicolas Mahut vs Quentin Halys
Handicap: Quentin Halys +4.0 @ 2.10 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Metz 250, Mens Singles R1
Malek Jaziri vs Ivan Dodig
Handicap: Malek Jaziri +1.5 @ 1.847 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP St Petersburg 250, Mens Singles R1
Gastao Elias vs Viktor Troicki
Total Score: Over 21.0 @ 1.862 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Jeff_Black]

Interesting to note that we both think the Verdasco and Millot games will be close. I just took +3.5 to Lajovic. He showed great form in Los Cabos.

Always a tough decision going between overs or the dog line, but then when you see guys like Paire stink it up you take the losses on the dog line sometimes heh

[Lightning]

Always a tough decision going between overs or the dog line, but then when you see guys like Paire stink it up you take the losses on the dog line sometimes heh

For sure. 5/6 on Indoor mens matches last night. Nice when that happens. Might be a solid few weeks of taking + lines and overs I think ahaha

[Jeff_Black]

Add to that there aren't a lot of big favs playing although St Petersburg has a surprisingly good field they would still never give a guy like stan a small total a lot will be over 21-22 thereabouts

[pabonaparte]

It is curious you chose +1.5 games handicap which rarely comes into play over a nice 2.10 (plus-money) money line. This seemed like a good spot to gamble a little bit more. I did and I thank you for sharing, Jeff_Black!

[Jeff_Black]

I should have, Jaziri was on a bit of a winning run and for some reason they made him a dog, especially considering he loves the hards. Very strange to set those kind of odds.

I remember someone posted Benoit Paire to beat Jack Sock with similar odds, and line and he lost 6-2 2-6 6-7. If he had gotten on the line he would have won :P
Hindsight suggests ML can be the play but Im always skeptical of a retirement and losing my money
Even if he was down 0-6 0-5 and retired id get by wager back

You have a great point though

[Jeff_Black]

On to today

ATP Metz 250, Mens Singles, R16
David Goffin vs Jan Leonard Struff
Handicap: Jan Leonard Struff +4.5 @ 1.826 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP St Petersburg 250, R16
Alexander Zverev vs Dannii Medvedev
Handicap: Dannii Medvedev +3.5 @ 1.90
Stake: 1u play

[Jeff_Black]

ATP St Petersburg 250, Mens Singles, QF
Stan Wawrinka vs Viktor Troicki
Handicap: Viktor Troicki +4.0 @ 2.04 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Metz 250, Mens Singles, QF
Gilles Simon vs Malek Jaziri
Handicap: Malek Jaziri +4.0 @ 1.862 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Metz 250, Mens Singles, SF
David Goffin vs Lucas Pouille
Handicap: David Goffin -3.0 @ 1.909 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Metz 250, Mens Singles, SF
Dominic Thiem vs Gilles Simon
Handicap: Gilles Simon +2.5 @ 2.01 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP St Petersburg 250, Mens Singles, SF
Tomas Berdych vs Alexander Zverev
Handicap: Tomas Berdych -3.0 @ 2.02 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Lightning]

oh man you'd be fuming ahaha

[Lightning]

I had 200 on Thiem straight, was legit shitting myself when he went down the break in the second

[Jeff_Black]

Kind of my own fault, I keep forgetting to tell myself never to bet on Simon haha
Today is no surprise either

ATP Metz 250, Mens Singles, Final
Dominic Thiem vs Lucas Pouille
Total Score: Over 23.0 @ 1.952 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP St Petersburg, Mens Singles, Final
Stan Wawrinka vs Alexander Zverev
Handicap: Stan Wawrinka -3.5 @ 1.909 on Pinnacle
Set Handicap: Stan Wawrinka -1.5 sets @ 1.917 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play each

Might as well keep this crap shoot going!

[pabonaparte]

Several people who I think are very talented cappers/gamblers just had the worst week in college football and NFL. Bookmakers are certainly cleaning up last 3-4 days!

[gorwin068]

Cheer up again in the upcoming tournaments

[Lightning]

This week has been terrible ahahaha, for all of us

[jtoler]

ONLINE 09/26/2016 02:06 AM

[ # 277227790 ] PARLAY (4 TEAMS) ( Risking: 5.00 - To Win: 222.41 ) WIN 09/26/2016 @ 03:15 AM MU vrs Total and Spreads (Games)[258220] Mischa Zverev -5-115 (Z Li vrs Mischa Zverev) Score: Z Li(5) - Mischa Zverev(12) WIN 09/26/2016 @ 03:10 AM MU vrs Total and Spreads (Games)[268659] TOTAL o20.5 -109 (S Errani vrs B Strycova) Score: S Errani(8) - B Strycova(15) WIN 09/26/2016 @ 04:20 AM MU [8661] J Jankovic +103 (J Jankovic vrs D Gavrilova) Score: J Jankovic(2) - D Gavrilova(0) WIN 09/26/2016 @ 04:15 AM MU (I Begu Retired - NO ACTION)[8674] I Begu +525 (S Halep vrs I Begu) Score: S Halep() - I Begu() N/A CANCEL $31.39

ONLINE 09/26/2016 12:57 AM

[ # 277226898 ] PARLAY (5 TEAMS) ( Risking: 5.00 - To Win: 135.59 ) WIN 09/26/2016 @ 01:55 AM MU [8604] K Mladenovic +145 (C Vandeweghe vrs K Mladenovic) Score: C Vandeweghe(0) - K Mladenovic(2) WIN 09/26/2016 @ 01:10 AM MU vrs Total and Spreads (Games)[268611] TOTAL o20.5 -110 (S Peng vrs S Zhang) Score: S Peng(14) - S Zhang(18) WIN 09/26/2016 @ 02:30 AM MU vrs Total and Spreads (Games)[268805] TOTAL o20.5 -106 (S Sharipova vrs S Voegele) Score: S Sharipova(17) - S Voegele(19) WIN 09/26/2016 @ 01:30 AM MU vrs Total and Spreads (Games)[268829] TOTAL o20.5 -113 (A Schmiedlova vrs M Sakkari) Score: A Schmiedlova(13) - M Sakkari(14) WIN 09/26/2016 @ 03:10 AM MU [8660] B Strycova -156 (S Errani vrs B Strycova) Score: S Errani(1) - B Strycova(2) WIN $135.59

Some good parlay opps tonight and in the morning, should post some and see if you guys agree.

[Jeff_Black]

Several people who I think are very talented cappers/gamblers just had the worst week in college football and NFL. Bookmakers are certainly cleaning up last 3-4 days!

I did average in that week last year from memory that I stopped midweek. I should have done the same. Sometimes you can't wager yourself back into form and it's better just to take a break from it. The books have definately been stingy with their overs and unders and from what Ive seen they have been setting everything to 22 haha. Maybe I cursed Stan...

NFL? I haven't been going too badly in it. Week 2 was meh for me but I was saved by Thursday and Monday Night Football

And losing streaks are always a timely reminder of why we only stake 1u/2u or 1,2,5% of our bankrolls per wager otherwise you will realise how quickly the money dries up!
Hopefully people remember that when tailing or more likely fading me :P

[Jeff_Black]

Anyway moving onto this week. Had a decent run on the Asian Hardcourt swing last year. Not sure what the surface of this new Chengdu tournament looks like so I might give that a miss till I see a game or two on it.

ATP Shenzen 250, Mens Singles, R1
Ryan Harrison vs Guillermo Garcia-Lopez
Handicap: Guillermo Garcia-Lopez +1.5 @ 1.934 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Shenzen 250, Mens Singles, R1
Mikhail Kukushin vs Lukas Rosol
Handicap: Mikhail Kukushin +2.5 @ 1.862 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Jeff_Black]

Good to get a win on the board, even with split picks

ATP Shenzen 250, Mens Singles, R2
Malek Jaziri vs David Goffin
Handicap: Malek Jaziri +4.5 @ 2.12 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Shenzen 250, Mens Singles, R1
Yoshihito Nishioka vs Alexander Zverev
Handicap: Alexander Zverev -3.0 @ 1.833 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Jeff_Black]

Nice of Zverev to pull out of the match rather then tanking to collect the prizemoney. He still gets a few days rest between matches so even if he played I felt he would have been confident enough to win comfortably. The aspect of backing up a deep run to be is plausible if they are playing someone in the next tournament with a bit more experience. Otherwise would have left it, anyway moving on to today.

ATP Chengdu Open 250, Mens Singles, R16
Viktor Troicki vs Marcos Baghdatis
Handicap: Marcos Baghdatis -1.5 @ 1.917 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Shenzen 250, Mens Singles, R16
Bernard Tomic vs Ryan Harrison
Handicap: Bernard Tomic -2.0 @ 2.01 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Shenzen 250, Mens Singles, R16
Tomas Berdych vs Mikhail Kukushkin
Handicap: Mikhail Kukushkin +5.0 @ 2.01 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[STAY STRONG]

You got the power.

[Lightning]

Baghdatis is so frustrating... I don't know whether it's Troicki playing well or Baghatis fading, and if it's a), can we trust Troicki now or not?

[Jeff_Black]

Not as a favourite :P
Much like baggy haha

He has his runs though
Wasn't meant to be today

[Jeff_Black]

Thank goodness Tomic challenged that down the line call that I thought went in on initial looks, would have been Harrison's game and doubt Tomic would have gotten the push. I think he was the better player and Harrison never looked like taking the game away from him other then living and dying on his serve. If he won I would have faded him...

ATP Chengdu 250, Mens Singles, QF
Dominic Thiem vs Albert Ramos-Vinolas
Handicap: Albert Ramos-Vinolas +4.5 @ 1.84 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Chengdu 250, Mens Singles, QF
Grigor Dimitrov vs Diego Sebastian Schwartzman
Handicap: Diego Sebastian Schwartzman +4.5 @ 1.862 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Shenzen 250, Men's Singles, SF
Richard Gasquet vs Janko Tipsarevic
Handicap: Janko Tipsarevic +4 @ 1.826 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Shenzen 250, Men's Singles, SF
Tomas Berdych vs Tomaz Belluci
Handicap: Tomaz Belluci +4.5 @ 1.826 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Chengdu 250, Men's Singles, SF
Albert Ramos Vinolas vs Grigor Dimitrov
Handicap: Albert Ramos Vinolas +4 @ 1.877 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Lightning]

Tough luck yesterday! If only Bellucci played like he did in the second the entire match!

[Jeff_Black]

Was pretty lucky Tipsarevic retired too haha, turns a bad day into a meh one. I actually thought he could challenge Gasquet and was looking ok early on but then fell off the rails.

ATP Chengdu Open 250, Mens Singles, Final
Karen Khachanov vs Albert Ramos Vinolas
Moneyline: Albert Ramos Vinolas @ 2.03 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Shenzen Open 250, Mens Singles, Final
Tomas Berdych vs Richard Gasquet
Moneyline: Tomas Berdych @ 1.671 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Jeff_Black]

Certainly did not want two players being up a break in a winning position and losing it, least it's been a better week for me, onto some of the bigger known tournaments!

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Toyko 500, Mens Singles, R1
Martin Klizan vs Joao Sousa
Total Score: Over 21.5 Games @ 1.90 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Toyko 500, Mens Singles, R1
Marin Cilic vs Benoit Paire
Total Score: Over 21.5 Games @ 1.909 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Beijing 500, Mens Singles, R1
Pablo Cuevas vs David Ferrer
Handicap: Pablo Cuevas +3.5 @ 1.847 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Remember fellas, earlier starts for the Asian Swing again, even earlier for Toyko

[Jeff_Black]

Doesn't get as good as that.

ATP Toyko 500, Men's Singles, R1
Go Soeda vs Fernando Verdasco
Total Games: Over 21.5 @ 1.854 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Lightning]

Quality day mate. Well done!