2016: Grass court season, Including Wimbledon, picks

**Jeff_Black** · 07-04-16, 01:51 AM

Yeah that's why I didn't bother with the line. Sure johnsons had some good wins but none of them have been against the caliber of Federer. It would take Federer losing a set rather then Johnson winning it and at those odds I'll take it.

As for Goffin, yeah I think he can. He's the best all court player from #gennext or whatever it's called and he's had some excellent form on grass as well. Raonic can be broken down I think. He nearly got broken serving for the match against Kyrgios and like Querrey can be picked apart on his second serve. I think four sets will suffice considering one will probably be a tiebreak

**Lightning** · 07-04-16, 03:25 AM

Interesting. I've bookmarked Goffin as someone who can take care of anyone ranked above twenty or so pretty easily, but I'm not sure how he'll go against the serve. Raonic is a bit robotic at times, but Goffin's serve isn't phenomenal, and Milos hits the ball pretty hard. You reckon Milos will take it in four, or Goffin?

**Chaz22** · 07-04-16, 04:54 AM

I agree with Cilic only with these selections and partly with Goffin - Raonic over but it will be very tough for David.

As for Fedex - Johnson....wow, just wow....going with -2.5 sets....very dangerous pick, as Federer has yet to prove his current ability and today will be his first real test. Johnson is cool on grass....I would say it's a coin toss on who will win this match not even talking about Federer going 3 - zip...
Maybe he is bluffing all the way about his struggles and so on, but I believe he is speaking truth.

As for Querrey - Mahut.... Sure Mahut is great on grass, and usually players who come up with huge upsets tend to step down in next match, but I dont think it's the case with Sam. Here's why. Sam's game depends much on his serve (same as Mahut's obviously) and he has been very stable with it in first 3 rounds. So why would he drop down with it? Not sure.... Also he is quite experienced now, so shouldnt feel like he has achieved the goal now...This is a real chance for him not just to win 4th round but who knows - get into finals of Slam. I think win against Djokovic will help him only get stronger and more confident over this match.
Besides Mahut has not been that impressive as he is usually in best-of-3 grass court encounters. so with out a doubt Im picking Big Same ML with odds around 2.3

**Lightning** · 07-04-16, 07:16 AM

Originally posted by Chaz22

As for Querrey - Mahut.... Sure Mahut is great on grass, and usually players who come up with huge upsets tend to step down in next match, but I dont think it's the case with Sam. Here's why. Sam's game depends much on his serve (same as Mahut's obviously) and he has been very stable with it in first 3 rounds. So why would he drop down with it? Not sure.... Also he is quite experienced now, so shouldnt feel like he has achieved the goal now...This is a real chance for him not just to win 4th round but who knows - get into finals of Slam. I think win against Djokovic will help him only get stronger and more confident over this match.
Besides Mahut has not been that impressive as he is usually in best-of-3 grass court encounters. so with out a doubt Im picking Big Same ML with odds around 2.3

For a start, Mahut doesn't just rely on his serve. He is a phenomenal volleyer and is more solid from the baseline. Honestly, I'm still stunned that he beat Djokovic. Other than his serve, he is average in every way.

**Chaz22** · 07-04-16, 08:37 AM

Originally posted by Lightning

For a start, Mahut doesn't just rely on his serve. He is a phenomenal volleyer and is more solid from the baseline. Honestly, I'm still stunned that he beat Djokovic. Other than his serve, he is average in every way.

Of course he is a great volleyer, however, with out a decent 1st serve % his volleying will be more difficult.
He beat Djokovic for 2 reasons - Sam is in a great form on the right time, and Djokovic was tired.

Oh, look Querrey is now 2-0 up and already broke poor Mahut in the third....

**Jeff_Black** · 07-04-16, 09:36 AM

I'm starting to regret the over instead of considering the +5, Goffin looking better out of the two but early days.
sure Raonic has had the better results now but goffin has the higher ceiling Imo

**Lightning** · 07-04-16, 09:58 AM

Originally posted by Chaz22

Of course he is a great volleyer, however, with out a decent 1st serve % his volleying will be more difficult.
He beat Djokovic for 2 reasons - Sam is in a great form on the right time, and Djokovic was tired.

Oh, look Querrey is now 2-0 up and already broke poor Mahut in the third....

Mahut is the better player, without doubt. I recognise now that Sam is playing well, but everything pointed to Mahut.

**Lightning** · 07-04-16, 09:59 AM

Originally posted by Jeff_Black

I'm starting to regret the over instead of considering the +5, Goffin looking better out of the two but early days.
sure Raonic has had the better results now but goffin has the higher ceiling Imo

Unbelievably frustrating. Everytime Raonic comes up with a shot, Goffin one ups him.

**picopico101** · 07-04-16, 10:04 AM

Pouille's foot gone

**Lightning** · 07-04-16, 10:13 AM

I'd say you have it, Jeff. Took a rare Goffin unforced error, but it happened. Good work

**Jeff_Black** · 07-04-16, 11:23 AM

Thanks, Decent day, was way off with Mahut but can't win em all

**Lightning** · 07-04-16, 08:06 PM

How to go from +4.5 units in wimbledon to -4.5 units in one night......... hahahahaha

**adila1401** · 07-04-16, 08:15 PM

Originally posted by Lightning

Mahut is the better player, without doubt. I recognise now that Sam is playing well, but everything pointed to Mahut.

Ya, Mahut buried me as well..thought he would put up a better fight but Sam just on a roll..

**ufcfan2016** · 07-04-16, 11:18 PM

Originally posted by adila1401

Ya, Mahut buried me as well..thought he would put up a better fight but Sam just on a roll..

mahut is a tomato can,
sam querry just beat THE GOAT and u bet MAHUTTED

**Lightning** · 07-05-16, 01:56 AM

Originally posted by ufcfan2016

mahut is a tomato can,
sam querry just beat THE GOAT and u bet MAHUTTED

Ironic considering he beat Querrey about two weeks ago

**Jeff_Black** · 07-05-16, 06:10 AM

ATP Wimbledon Championships 2000 SW19, Men's Singles, R16
Tomas Berdych vs Jiri Vesely
5th set total games: OVER 10.5 @ 2.58 on Crownbet
Stake: 1.5u play

**Jeff_Black** · 07-06-16, 01:43 AM

ATP Wimbledon Championships SW19, Men's Singles, QF
Jo Wilfried Tsonga vs Andy Murray
Total Score: Over 35.5 @ 1.943 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Wimbledon Championships SW19, Men's Singles, QF
Tomas Berdych vs Lucas Pouille
Handicap: Lucas Pouille +5.5 @ 1.97 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

**Lightning** · 07-06-16, 01:55 AM

Interesting to see you went the overs in the Murray match.

Agree strongly re. Pouille. I just took the overs rather than the handicap.

**Jeff_Black** · 07-06-16, 05:42 AM

Yeah I am a bit surprised. Sure Murrays playing well but he hasnt really been challenged. Tsongas marathon match against Isner was negated by his one and a bit sets against Gasquet. He should be good to go here.
I'm not sure if Murray will have it too easily. Tsonga to win a set at 2.00/+100 is just as good but I'm taking the slight notion that it could be a very close three set Match.
I'm usually a fan of backing Tsonga in this spot and even the +6.5 looks tempting. Could see Murray lapsing just as easily
Bol with your plays too

Hoping I read Pouilles form right. I actually don't rate him as a player more of a flash in the pan type but when he's on he's on...

**Jeff_Black** · 07-06-16, 05:58 AM

Also why are people so confident in Cilic winning?
He's been very poor in the past against the top guys. 1-5 against Federer, hasn't beaten Djokovic, 2-9 against Murray, 1-3 against Nadal.
And if it weren't for some suspicious doping going on he would not have even gotten that win* and USO against Federer.
Has he replicated his form since then? Not really. Not saying he's Been bad but he was almost unhittable in the second half of that year and it took and errorless Djokovic to beat him in Wimbledon.
I can't see Federer slipping up, IMO anyway

**Jeff_Black** · 07-07-16, 12:27 AM

Well that nearly ended up being a disaster, a correct prediction with Federer but only by a smidgen. Cilic didn't really look the same after the second set and even though he dug himself out of trouble a few times in that fourth Federer looked like the better player, and then in the fifth. I just cant believe he nearly lost that match due to a few shanks, very unFederer like.

Which brings me to my next post.

ATP Wimbledon Championships, SW19, Mens Singles
Futures/Outrights Markets: To Win Wimbledon
Roger Federer @ 3.77 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

The tennis gods seem to want Federer to win this time around but with that said and even off the back of a five set match every player will get a days rest before resuming Semi Finals tommorow. And with everyone playing on Centre Court we'll get no delays and no dramas.
I was initially a fan of (not betting wise) Tsonga to pull through and potentially win on his day but unfortunately that was not to be, a different first set against Murray could have changed that but anyway...

ATP Wimbledon Championships, SW19, Mens Singles, SF
Andy Murray vs Tomas Berdych
Handicap: Tomas Berdych +6.0 @ 2.03 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

**Lightning** · 07-07-16, 01:50 AM

I had Murray 3-0. After the second set, I was like, 'yep, finally got this one in the bag', and for the fourth and final time last night, the third set f*cked me.

**Lightning** · 07-07-16, 02:02 AM

Hope Fed wins it though. Would be magical.

**Jeff_Black** · 07-07-16, 03:03 AM

Yeah I have no idea what happened, Tsonga typically played an incredibly loose second set with errors he wasn't making in the first.
I think the line was just covered by the hook too!

I was actually rooting for Tsonga to Win the whole thing because damn he has had his chances and played to the occasion. Ah well.
I want Federer to win it as well to end all this goat talk, even though any other slam now is icing on the cake. But I'd love to see someone like Berdych get one too after several good results

**fitguy67** · 07-11-16, 02:39 AM

hey Jeff, i've been tracking your plays even tho' not being able to play them consistently...

the campaign still rolling along well with a yield still north of the 5% benchmark for excellence

150

127

+16.883u

=5.124%

of 329.5u

**Jeff_Black** · 07-12-16, 06:03 AM

Cheers, I'm gonna post another thread tommorow to kick off the US/European Summer series before the US Open.
Wimbledon/French and a lot of European tennis was exhausting being up all night watching it so it's good to take a few days off here and there between tournaments.
Will be back tommorow!

**Jeff_Black** · 07-13-16, 12:48 AM

Checking out and then in to the new thread: http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...l#post25998112