Stats if anyone cares

[BlakeMile01]

I'm working on having a full database available soon, so for now I currently just post relevant stuff on Twitter, trying to remember to post here more often, these are all main draw stats only, I'm also working on getting qualifiers stats in the same format, and eventually ITF also will be part of the database which I aim to have a a subscription service for a very nominal & extremely affordable fee when launched

but for now... here are some things that stood out

Dulgheru Main Draw 2016:
2-5-1 O/U as DOG (3-5-0 O/U R1) 1-1-0 R-CLAY
conflict with:
Wickmayer 6-3-0 O/U FAV (9-3-0 O/U R1) 3-1-0 O/U R-CLAY

Dulgheru Main Draw YTD:
2-6-1 R1 (2-6-1 DOG) 4-7-1 ALL ATS (1-2-0 ATS DOG line EVEN thru +4) 1-5-1 ATS R1 DOG)



Konta Main Draw YTD R1 FAV 1-4-0 ATS (1-2-0 ATS as FAV on RED CLAY)

K. Nara 2016 Main Draw 0-2-0 ATS ALL CLAY DOG (0-3-0 ATS ALL CLAY)
YTD ALL SRF: 4-10-1 ATS (2-6-0 ATS DOG) 3-5-0 ATS R1 (1-2-0 ATS R1 DOG)

Parmentier 2016 Main Draw:
4-8 ML DOG, 4-4 ML R1, 3-4 ML DAYTIME DOG, however, conflict with 0-4 ML DOG EVEN to +160

but Niculescu 1-3 FAV ML -101 to -180, 5-5 ML DAY FAV, 5-5 ML FAV, also conflict with 6-2 ML R1

Puig 1-6-1 O/U when total is 18.5 thru 20.5 (5-6-0 O/U R1) (3-3-1 O/U RED CLAY) (4-5-1 O/U ALL CLAY) Govortsova 3-7-0 O/U DOG 3-6-1 O/U R1

Babos 2-9-0 O/U all surfaces Total <20.5

Time Babos Main Draw 2016:
22-11-0 ATS (8-6-0 ATS FAV) (10-3-0 ATS R1) (8-3 ATS RED CLAY) (3-0 ATS RED CLAY FAV) (1-3-0 O/U CLAY TOT <20.5)

[BlakeMile01]

I'll try to remember to post some more later once the OOP is out since I also have court splits (center/stadium/grounds) as well as a lot of other crazy stats like VS player height >=<, VS seeded/WC/LL/QUAL, AS seeded/WC/LL/QUAL, VS country of origin, etc etc etc

[BlakeMile01]

if anyone has any random stats they want looked up, feel free to ask, just reply to this thread

[Lightning]

This would actually be very useful. I've got one for you - I've always held a theory (semi backed up by stats) that Djokovic generally doesn't cover his line against round 1, 2 and 3 opponents, but from the quarterfinal onwards, if you backed his line every time, you'd make money. Would you be able to check that one for me? Cheers

[fitguy67]

in a perfect world, the stat i'd like to have on hand for both players in a match i'm considering watching real-time with live-betting availability is this:

% of matches won by A after A has won s1 (ideally broken down acc.to: "as a fave" vs. "as an outsider")
%matches won by A after A has lost s1 (..."as a fave" vs. "as an outsider")...

so, basically 4 % for each player...would probably be best to build this up for WTA first, as all matches are 3-setters, allowing for a further breakdown of the numbers by tourney-level (slams, 1000s, 500s, 250s) if you really wanted to go mad with the idea...

wouldn't be surprised if books have a similar "book" on each player built into their live-betting platform's algorithms to re-set live-odds v. pre-match offerings after s1 has finished

[BlakeMile01]

thanks for the replies guys, this season I just started with WTA Main Draw & Qualifying rounds only (I'm running a few weeks behind on the data entry for the qualifying so thats why I'm only posting Main draw for now) I've thought about adding ATP tour next year (but that workload would be intense doing both men & women, I'd literally need an employee at that point)

Lightning, that theory is correct for a lot of WTA players, actually player ATS, ML, and O/U by round has become one of the very first things I look at when capping since I started this project in 2015, there are some players that literally "fall off the map" or become "auto-bet" based on the round of the event, Timea Bacsinszky last season for example was an "auto bet" in round 2, I didn't care what the spread was... but not so much this year...

FitGuy, I could write a formula for that, and make it sortable by slams, premier 5, premier, international events... give me a bit, I'll get back to ya on that one

I'm currently saving some changes so I can't look anything up for a little while but stay tuned later I'll try to post anything of major interest

[BlakeMile01]

ALL STATS WTA MAIN DRAW ONLY:

Serena Williams as FAV -7 or larger 3-2-1 ATS (has not been favored by -8 games YTD) Serena 9-12-3 ATS all surfaces YTD & 3-1-0 ATS when facing taller opposition

Rybarikova 4-3-0 as DOG, 2-2-1 ATS R1,4-3-0 ATS vs shorter opposition

Pereira 4-12-0 ATS YTD, (2-3-0 ATS as FAV) 4-9-0 ATS R1, 0-3-0 temp <70 degrees (forecast is for mid to high 60's Fahrenheit) has only covered once (1-6-0 ATS) when humidity is above 50% (forecast is 67% humidity) also has not covered (0-6-0 ATS) with wind speed <10 MPH (forecast is 5MPH)

Conflict with Kr Pliskova 3-5-0 ATS as DOG (4-8-0 overall) 3-4-0 R1, 1-4-0 ATS humidity above 50%

so pick your poison there.. personally I lean Baby Pliskova getting the 3.5 games...

Crawford 3-4-0 ATS Humidity >50% (I posted Babos stats yesterday, I like Babos -6) even though Crawford is 5-4-0 ATS as DOG, she is also 2-4-0 ATS R1 (Babos is also 2-2 ML VS Americans YTD)

Babos Ironically is 15-6-1 O/U on totals 21 and greater (currently 21 @ 5dimes) but is 1-7-0 O/U when total is exactly 20.5... 5-8-1 O/U as FAV 8-4-1 O/U R1 (7-3-1 O/U total exactly 21)

Crawford is 3-6-0 O/U as DOG (3-3-0 O/U R1)

Mladenovic 3-8-0 O/U R1 6-8-0 AS FAV (6-12-0 total O/U 21 or greater)

Schiavone 1-4-0 as DOG (1-5-0 R1 / 0-3-0 R1 as DOG)

Puig 8-2-0 R1 as FAV

Dodin 0-2-0 ATS R1 DOG Dodin YTD 0-2-0 ATS DOG / Ivanovic 3-3-1 ATS R1 (FAV 9-12-0 ATS ALL) 7-11-0 ATS ALL FAV

Nara 4-10-1 ATS ALL (2-6-0 ALL AS DOG) 3-5-0 ATS R1 (1-5-0 ATS Humidity >50%)

Putintseva 12-11-2 ATS ALL, (8-3-0 ATS FAV) 6-3-0 ATS R1 (4-4-2 ATS Wind <10MPH) but Putintseva is only 5-10-2 ATS VS taller opposition YTD

Azarenka as FAV player Team total point listed 12 or 12.5 is 5-22-0 to under

Donna Vekic is 1-5 ML VS a seeded player as a DOG but 4-2-0 ATS VS seeded as DOG

so there is a few trends... hope everyone likes it... I'm done for the night BOL to everyone with your wagers, like previously stated, eventually this will be a sub service for a VERY nominal fee (basically what it takes to host the database, not trying to make a profit) right now I'm all out of pocket, but want to let you guys start to see the data I have, hope to launch start of 2017

and FitGuy67, I'll build that easy... just give me till after the first rounds of Paris... opening rounds of majors are a swift kick to the nuts on data

[BlakeMile01]

thats as much as I felt like typing... sorry... and Fit Guy, I'll build that formula in the next week or so

anyone else have requests?

[BlakeMile01]

Fit Guy, I'll have that built very soon for you, I'll do anything to gain a customer

[BlakeMile01]

I can also build in a column where if the FAV is greater than said price to start match and looses set 1 and other shit like that....

I have over 1000 main draw WTA matches in Excel from this 2016 season & can build damn near anything....

I'm just trying to get input before I make it a charged (nominal fee) service in 2017

people like you that contribute will obviously get a discount

[Lightning]

Blake - something like this deserves more than a nominal fee. It's something incredible useful.

[BlakeMile01]

Thanks for the kind words Lightning, I've yet to even figure a cost, since I'm still in the building process

some Stats for tomorrow (these are ALL ATS 2nd Round MAIN DRAW)

Parmentier 3-1-1
Falconi 1-4-0
Sviolina 4-2-0
Townsend 0-0-0 (first R2 Main Draw appearance YTD)
Halep 3-5-1
Diyas 3-3-0
Rogers 1-2-0
Vesnina 4-3-0
Watson 3-2-0
Kuzzy 2-6-0
Osaka 2-2-1
Lucic 4-1-1
Pavlyuchenkova 2-5-0
Buyukakcay 3-0-0
Hsieh 1-5-1
Kvitova 3-5-0
Muguruza 4-5-1
Georges 4-3-0
Stosur 2-6-1
Zhang 2-3-1
Golubic 1-0-0
Safarova 0-7-0
Makanrova 1-7-1
Wickmayer 4-1-0
Vandeweghe 4-0-0
Begu 2-3-1
Pironkova 1-3-0
Larsson 4-3-0
Bondarenko 3-3-0
Beck 3-3-0
Garcia 3-2-0
A Radwanska 2-4-2
Cepede 1-1-0
Stephens 2-6-2
Strycova 4-5-0
Hercog 1-2-0

gotta do data entry then save, I'lll try to post more before I put my head to the pillow

[BlakeMile01]

Georges stat is not correct, I accidentally looked at Julia Goerges, Myrtle Goerges has not advanced to R2 YTD

[maletaja]

I have some theory
1)Nadal- 3-0 sets are underestimated, he never leaves set to the opponnet while Djoko could do that, same Ferrer
2)Serena wont demolish weaker opponnets earlier rounds. She could win 6-0 6-0 but she wins like 6-4 6-3
3)unknown H2H where players havnt met before. For example Halep vs unknown 180cm+ hitter (Pliskova) or Serena vs Zheng?Bookies put Halep to heavy favorit status, but she might not be. There could be things that favorit dislike-lefthanded,hitter,clay,grass and "easy opponent" on paper are quite inconvenient.


So another words stat could solve those problems and i follow that topic

[BlakeMile01]

I have left/right stats, and can filter them any which way you dream up, I have a lot more than I have posted, mainly because the data entry that I have to do at the start of a major or when there are simultaneous Premier/Premier 5 events starting is such an ass kicking, I pretty much live at my computer those first few rounds

and I have much more planned for expansion in the 2017 season

[BlakeMile01]

in 2017 my stats will include Qualifying rounds & a custom line builder (where the user an add & subtract parts of a formula based on how they cap) and many other things I have planned or currently developing

taking applications for ATP main draw data entry for 2017

[BlakeMile01]

Maletaja, your theory is correct Serena by round YTD

R1:0-1-0 (had a lot of byes)
R2:2-2-0
R3:1-3-2
R4:2-1-0
QF:2-1-1
SF:2-1-0

BUT... in FINALS 0-3-0 ATS

also 4-12-3 ATS at night & 9-12-3 ATS on CENTER COURT

[BlakeMile01]

Serena O/U

R1:1-0-0
R2:1-2-1
R3:3-1-0
R4:1-2-0
QF:0-3-0
SF:1-2-0
FIN:2-1-0

(keep in mind this does not include Roland Garros currently) I'm finishing Round 1 data entry which kicks my ass, (big events always kick my ass on data entry) and the DB is so big now it takes about 2 hours to pull a save after data entry... why I'm putting this out for free cause I gotta get a Mac Pro to have the power to run this in a timely manner

[BlakeMile01]

the reason I've waited so long to post stats is I wanted to be so far ahead that no matter someones database knowledge, my information would be un paralleled, no human could backtrack at this point & catch up (I know this for various reasons I cannot disclose)

[BlakeMile01]

first LH player Svitolina has seen YTD

[Lightning]

Nice work mate. I'm assuming for the stats above, it's in the format: COVERED THE SPREAD - HAS NOT COVERED THE SPREAD - PUSH

and for the o/u, it's : OVER - UNDER - PUSH

Is that correct? Are you also getting the lines from pinnacle?

[BlakeMile01]

I use 5Dimes closing lines, player totals are from bovada, but when I have an indifference I take the TTP from betUS

correct its always WIN-LOSS-PUSH & OVER-UNDER-PUSH

[BlakeMile01]

98% of TTP stats are from bovada, but I'll adjust a half point sometimes when I get a -140 ish fav and I see a 12 at betUS, same with the -5 & -5.5 lines, I use my own discretion

[BlakeMile01]

all totals are 5dimes closing totals as well, only differ is how I grade the player totals, which is 98% bovada, unless its priced out then I log the betUS TTP

[BlakeMile01]

pulling a save now, everything I post is March 23 and Prior (I'll do the rest of R1 March 24 tomorrow) unless you like hours in front of Excel LOL

takes about 2 hours to save.... so I'll post then.... its a big file, no joke

[BlakeMile01]

your assumption is correct Lightning

thanks for the support bud

[A.M.S.]

Blake... what's ur Twitter

[BlakeMile01]

im @blakemile I also am BlakeMile on SBR but forgot my password

[BlakeMile01]

at 17% save so I'm gonna watch a movie or something

[BlakeMile01]

at 23% save, watching Deadliest Catch LOL (that show where idiots go fish crab) don't think I'm going to update stats, but hang tight, I might get a bug up my ass and wake before dawn USA time (I've done that before)

[BlakeMile01]

I'm really glad they fish crab, I like crab

[frugalgambler]

Out of curiosity what the performance of your stats in R1 of this RG ? o/u, ats, atp vs wta ? If you have time that is.

[BlakeMile01]

I love crab fisherman, thats official

[BlakeMile01]

R1 stats killed it, 75% ish give or take, & I don't do ATP yet, I'll have to hire someone to do ATP in 2017

[BlakeMile01]

keeping up with the WTA tour is a job of itself, adding the ATP means I need a co worker, but I haven't run "official" numbers for round one, but I would guess 75-80 ish ATS felt like a good day