[Sawyer]

THE FUTURE OF ARBITRAGE BETTING



Are you afraid of the future?

Change..Such an unpleasant word, isn't it? Everything changes. People, rock bands (except Manowar), fashion, technology, everything. Betting industry changes as well. Books are getting meaner, wiser and arbitrage business is getting more challenging every day.

Still, arbitrage betting is a very profitable business despite some obstacles. We, arbers are smart people since we found a way to beat the system. While %99.9 of betting public are losing money, we're making profit regardless of result.

Arbitrage business is getting more challenging everyday, that's right but we're coming up with new weapons as well. Remember, there's always a way!



Sharbing (Shop Arbing) was very popular in UK. Nowadays, you may see your "Wanted Poster" after few visits..

Soft Bookies don't like arbers, they cut your limits fast. Parlay arbing was a nice solution in order to bypass bet limits. Books had much higher limits when you place a parlay bet instead of a single wager.

We overcome bet limits by parlaying arbs.

Unfortunately, bookies started to cut parlay limits as well.
But remember what I said above, there's always new ways..

Ladies and Gentlemen,
The future of Arbitrage betting is,

Live arbing!



Live arbing is an advanced level of arbitrage trading..

Unlike pregame arbing, there's a serious risk level involved in live arbing. There may be a goal scored 'til you close the trade but remember it may work in your favor as well. If line drops for x side, then it drops for a reason. They're playing better probably.

Many books take/track odds from Betradar directly, this way they can easily spot if you're arber and limit your account after 1-2 bets. Tracking arbitrage action on live markets is much more problematic for bookmaker. Your account will last much more longer when you're arbing live.



Manowar proved Herakleitos wrong. Everything changes? Not really..

You may have ridicilious limits in xxx book but did you checked bet limits for live betting? Some books just cut your pregame limits, allowing you to bet live with higher limits..

I don't suggest live arbing for newbie arbers. It's for experienced arbers only since there's a serious risk level involved. Line may change while you place your bet, there may be a goal scored, a red card may change odds dramatically and the list goes on and on! Not to mention, you must be very quick. Very high speed is required, using multiple monitors/computers may help.

Danger Zone adds some risk factor but remember it may work in favor as well.


For example,

You picked Gimnasia Jujuy +0,25 @ 2,10 (+110) in xbet and you cover your arb by picking Arg Juniors -0,25 @ 2,04 (+104) in Sbobet. Your wager at Sbobet won't be accepted immediately since Jujuy is making a dangerous attack as you can see above. When attack is over (corner, dangerous freekick etc) and game is safe your bet will get matched. So imagine Jujuy scores before your bet is accepted by Sbobet. Line will change in your favor and your bet at Sbobet will be rejected. Now, you can pick Arg Juniors at a much better price. You get Jujuy +0,25 and Jujuy is leading by 2!

Now imagine, you place Over 1,5 Bet in softbook first. You bet Under 1,5 in Pinnacle. An instant goal means 1 Win and 1 Void, giving you massive profit.



Are you sure you want to trade under when Ronaldo is behind the ball?

Remember, live arbing is a two-edged sword. Things may go against you as well. Imagine you picked Under 1,5 in softbook and while you place your bet in Pinnacle, Jujuy scores a goal! Now, you're fukked up. Well, it happens. Some arbers prefer to stick with side and over bets only. By placing under bet first, you place yourself in a risky position. Still, it can be worth of the risk if you're watching the game, if game is calm, if it's half time, if there's an injury, if goalie doesn't hurry for the goal kick etc. Sometimes arb % is so high and you may want to go for it and take the risk.

Another popular market in live arbing is, corners. You can arb in corner market as well. However, it's more risky then goal market because how many goals happens in a soccer game? Usually 2-3. And how many corners? Usually 9-10. There were 17 corners in Real Madrid-Atletico Madrid game just 4 days ago. Can you imagine you're trading corners on that game? Risky but can be worth of the risk if arb percentage is high enough. You don't want to bet Total Corners Under when Ronaldo is behind the ball, right?

Anyway, conditions may change but you should be able to adapt yourself to new enviroment.
That's the evolutionary spirit!

I wish everyone a profitable arbitrage season. May the luck be with you!

[Hareeba!]

What you are describing as "live arbing" isn't arbing at all!
It's just good old fashioned trading.
Arbing is simultaneously betting both sides to guarantee a profit.
There are no such guarantees (as you have pointed out) when trading.

[R6MC]

i like big butts

[rkelly110]

What you are describing as "live arbing" isn't arbing at all!
It's just good old fashioned trading.
Arbing is simultaneously betting both sides to guarantee a profit.
There are no such guarantees (as you have pointed out) when trading.

MLB and NHL are the only two sports that's feasible to do that.

-1.5 @ +135 on the home team and ML +135 on the visitor are the minimum odds for betting both sides and winning
a couple of bucks. I done it a few times this year with good success.

[tradeout]

[QUOTE=rkelly110;22468995]MLB and NHL are the only two sports that's feasible to do that.

wrong. can be done on anything.
and hareeba is right - it is not arbing, but trading.
do it daily

[Optional]

Trading is taking one side and waiting for the odds to shift at the same book/exchange I think? Well not necesarily at the same book. But you don't have both sides of the bet ready to go at the same time.

This is still arbing, although I doubt it fits the risk profile for most serious arbitrage players. Too many bets would go bad to be risking the same proportion of bankroll as you would on a pre-game arb.

[Art Vandeleigh]

Arbing is simultaneously betting both sides to guarantee a profit.
There are no such guarantees (as you have pointed out) when trading.

See deterministic arbitrage, statistical arbitrage

[kkkkk]

What you are describing as "live arbing" isn't arbing at all!
It's just good old fashioned trading.
Arbing is simultaneously betting both sides to guarantee a profit.
There are no such guarantees (as you have pointed out) when trading.

no, this is definately arbing. when you trade you can place bet 5 mins or 30 mins later, and now you aim to place 2 bets at same time.

[Hareeba!]

no, this is definately arbing. when you trade you can place bet 5 mins or 30 mins later, and now you aim to place 2 bets at same time.

you start with "no" and then go on to agree with me?

I appreciate that the origins of traditional arbitrage trading would not necessarily have involved simultaneous buying and selling of commodities.

However in the gambling context I think the term has always meant a risk free simultaneous placement of bets.

[rm18]

I saw philly -17.5 +130 and pitt +17.5 -118 simultaneously on thursday

[Sawyer]

What you are describing as "live arbing" isn't arbing at all!
It's just good old fashioned trading.
Arbing is simultaneously betting both sides to guarantee a profit.
There are no such guarantees (as you have pointed out) when trading.

It is.
And even in pregame arbing, you don't bet both sides simultaneously.
You bet soft bookie side first, then sharp side.
There's no such guarantee in pregame arbing either. Pinnacle may not accept your bet due to technical error, bookie may change odds/line while you're placing your bet etc.

Of course, betting under first and waiting for over bet to get matched is a little bit gambling as I mentioned above. You will be more safe if you look for arbs where you bet over first in soft or if you trade during half time break/injury break etc.

[Hareeba!]

It is.
And even in pregame arbing, you don't bet both sides simultaneously.
You bet soft bookie side first, then sharp side.
There's no such guarantee in pregame arbing either. Pinnacle may not accept your bet due to technical error, bookie may change odds/line while you're placing your bet etc.

Of course, betting under first and waiting for over bet to get matched is a little bit gambling as I mentioned above. You will be more safe if you look for arbs where you bet over first in soft or if you trade during half time break/injury break etc.

Oh! please let's not get too pedantic about the timing. Of course you need to place one side of an arb bet a few seconds before the other unless you've got a team going at it!

So by your definition when does it cease to be arbing and start to be trading?

[Sawyer]

Guys, any arbers from US? Just curious. I guess arbitrage must be quite difficult in USA since betfair and pinnacle are restricted. What about new jersey? I heard about online betting is legal there.

Hareeba, you from Australia?

[shaunovery]

Never heard so much crap in my life

Live arbing no such thing it's called trading

Arbing is betting both sides before the game starts to guarantee a profit

When the game starts you don't know what happens and odds changes accordingly

[Hareeba!]

Hareeba, you from Australia?

yep

[shaunovery]

Attachment 72143

Here's a screenshot of a recent trade I did this is trading

[Sawyer]

Oh, Geek's toy..
I suggest you Betangel, it's better.

Shaun, Arbitrage can be both pregame and live. No need to create senseless discussion here. Arbitrage is a kind of trade too after all. What you did via Geek's Toy is called trading. I suggest you to read my article carefully, i'm talking about live arbitrage opportunities that appears between softbooks and sharpbooks. For example, Arsenal-Everton Total Corners Under 11½ is +100 in bwin, while Over 11½ is +120 in Pinnacle. That's what i'm talking about. Live Arbing is betting both sides during game (or during half time break etc) to guarantee a profit.

[shaunovery]

Yes, I use bet angel as well espically for the automation trades when I'm not at PC

As for live arbing it can be done more difficult to get bets on with the in play 5/7 second delay

[Sawyer]

As I mentioned in my article, this delay can be in your favor as well.
Or if you arb during half time break, no delay.

[shaunovery]

Sawyer, how many books would you need funded to arb successfully

Maybe bet fair, pinny,

[Sawyer]

Sawyer, how many books would you need funded to arb successfully
Maybe bet fair, pinny,

Many many. The more is better. 30-40, even more..
You can arb even with 7-8 books but more bookie you got, more options you'll have.

[shaunovery]

Many many. The more is better. 30-40, even more..
You can arb even with 7-8 books but more bookie you got, more options you'll have.

Agree more books the better , just have to have books that you know that pay

[jjgold]

Geeks toy for rookies and squares

marketfeeder pro or betangel is what big players use

USa its impossible to Arb PERIOD

[shaunovery]

Geeks toy for rookies and squares

marketfeeder pro or betangel is what big players use

USa its impossible to Arb PERIOD

Agree with arbing in the USA , it's very difficult with the current rules the government are against gambling

[relaaxx]

What you are describing as "live arbing" isn't arbing at all!
It's just good old fashioned trading.
Arbing is simultaneously betting both sides to guarantee a profit.
There are no such guarantees (as you have pointed out) when trading.

hareeba is right on the money again. everything else is a form of arbing. Arbing is simultaneously betting both sides to guarantee a profit.
that's it. and it's over in the USA. forms of arbing can still be had in the US. but it's not worth it anymore. risk/reward gambling offshore isn't worth it anymore if you are in the US.

[BigDaddy]

MLB and NHL are the only two sports that's feasible to do that.

-1.5 @ +135 on the home team and ML +135 on the visitor are the minimum odds for betting both sides and winning
a couple of bucks. I done it a few times this year with good success.

really

lol

[shaunovery]

MLB and NHL are the only two sports that's feasible to do that.

-1.5 @ +135 on the home team and ML +135 on the visitor are the minimum odds for betting both sides and winning
a couple of bucks. I done it a few times this year with good success.

So the home team wins by 1 your cooked

[LEOLEO]

lol at Sawyer.......
any more bright ideas......!?

there is the 1% of the 1% , who are IN THE KNOW,
the rest of you , well......are not as Fortunate as we.....

straight arbing, pre game or in game will GET U NOWHERE......but lock in some small profits before THEY LIMIT YOU FAST



any in game books such as 365, will hill, victor, sports interaction, fred, ladbrokes bwin etc....if they see + money....being targeted.
IE +150 OR +130
your bound to be limited asap....

but if the DOLORIAN gets u amped , well thats okay too....




#THE'MIDDLER'

[rkelly110]

really

lol

What's so funny. 3 for 3 yesterday. MLB SF 6 @ Wash 14. Seattle 8 @ Bos 6, KC 1 @ Tex 3.

Betting -1.5 and ML at a minimum of +135 wins a couple of bucks. No Arbing, no trading, one book.
Yes, you will have days where you win by one run. Can't win 'em all.

[jjgold]

Arbing a thing of the past..one of main things that killed it was arbing services

Outside of USA you might be able to grind out some money but tons of work and moving money

[Mexes]

I'm making money for a while now with handball. It's not really arbitraging but I'm doing over/under and hc spread in-play middling. basketball games also allow often to make very nice live middling with over/under and handicap bets...

[BigDaddy]

What's so funny. 3 for 3 yesterday. MLB SF 6 @ Wash 14. Seattle 8 @ Bos 6, KC 1 @ Tex 3.

Betting -1.5 and ML at a minimum of +135 wins a couple of bucks. No Arbing, no trading, one book.
Yes, you will have days where you win by one run. Can't win 'em all.

you will be rich soon

should keep good stuff like this to yourself

pretty soons books are gonna block these types of plays

[stevex]

The only way left for US players is to use Heritage 3-way lines but shhh our little secret and even then you won't find legit scalps, just numbers that are a little close. It's better for bonus people like myself who want to get money into Heritage and out of the bonus book without losing much if the dog wins at the bonus book.

[rangerz2478]

MLB and NHL are the only two sports that's feasible to do that.

-1.5 @ +135 on the home team and ML +135 on the visitor are the minimum odds for betting both sides and winning
a couple of bucks. I done it a few times this year with good success.

There is a lot of nonsense in this thread, but this takes the cake on the most ridiculous post.

With your +135 example, you are laying -600 that the fave doesn't win by 1 run. You realize this, right?

[rangerz2478]

What's so funny. 3 for 3 yesterday. MLB SF 6 @ Wash 14. Seattle 8 @ Bos 6, KC 1 @ Tex 3.

Betting -1.5 and ML at a minimum of +135 wins a couple of bucks. No Arbing, no trading, one book.
Yes, you will have days where you win by one run. Can't win 'em all.

What you are doing has absolutely no relevance on the thread at hand. Arbing/trading involves getting an advantage over the true value of a position, or even locking in free money.

You are not only getting no advantage, you are foolishly doing something that gives you the absolute opposite of an advantage. I would suggest getting a better understanding in the math involved in what you are doing before you go any further. And don't tell me it went 5-5 yesterday, absolutely irrelevant. Could win 20 in a row, and it still wouldn't change the fact you are laying -600 on bets that should be worth -400.