Hi guys,

New to the forum, I hope I am posting this in the right place. I am looking to derive team totals from regular lines (overnights, mostly, before the team totals are released). I am looking for a simple method for my research, I do not need this to be incredibly precise but I would like it to be reasonably accurate.

Here is what I'm thinking:

Take Vig Free Calc on both ML and Total (i.e. BOS - 125 Tor +115 =+/- 119. o9 -113/+102 = -/+ 107)

therefore I assign 54.34% of the projected runs scored to Boston, and the rest to Toronto.

Where I run into trouble is on the Total. Can we say that the projected runs would be 9.07? I have read that a half run is worth 30-60 cents depending on the #.. So if I just make each half run worth 50 cents I can do this simply.

In this scenario Boston would be projected 4.93 runs, and Toronto projected 4.14. Is this reasonable or am I missing something big? I know not all numbers are created equal (7 to 7.5 is certainly bigger than 8 to 8.5 but unless there is public information on what a half point is worth I am not going to bother with the difference).

Okay, thanks for your help.

-Choco