on3's MLB 2016 Opening Day System Thread

[imotiv8]

On3 usually starts this thread by now so I don't know if he's not doing it anymore (hopefully he is)

Anyways I figure I'd start the thread and we can post plays as a group till he comes

[imotiv8]

Basic rules -- if HOME team A is favored by -145 or greater in game1 of their series, they are a play. 3 game chase. A few filters:

It was shown to be profitable to play a 5/2 system, the 5/2 is indicating the units bet to win the series. The trigger is when a filtered play loses the (A) game.
No 2-game series' should be played.
After the all-star break, teams must meet either the overall .500 record test or the home record over .500 test.
Odds > -190 should be played on the RL.
The O/U 9 filter has a very strong historical record.

Last year finished at around +42 units. And the filtered bets and 5/2 just didnt generate enough plays (20 for the season) to gain any traction.

2014 thread: on3's MLB 2014 Opening Day System Thread

[MoMoney2]

Could you please expand I am a little confused?

Are you basically betting 5 units on the favorite to win 2 of the 3 games? If so, what do you do when the favorite loses game 1?

Sorry i I am new to MLB betting and just trying to learn different systems. Thank you in advance for any explanation.

[on3]

imotiv8 -- thanks for starting this thread. is it okay if i take it from here?

[on3]

Labby will start running after the first two weeks. Until then, I am playing (A) bets as a half unit, (B) bets as one unit, (C) bets as 2 units. Filtered will be doubled. Units and win/loss will not be tracked until April 18th/19th.


UPDATED for 4/4/2016
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 0-0-0; Profit: 0 units
Filtered System: 0-0-0; Profit: 0 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 0-0; 0-0
Game 2 (B) win = 0-0; 0-0; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 0-0; 0-0; 0-0

REGULAR FOR 4/4/2016
(A) CIN -168 -- .5 units
(A) ARI -179 .5 units

Filtered
none

5/2
none

[imotiv8]

imotiv8 -- thanks for starting this thread. is it okay if i take it from here?

Yes sir! Nice to hear from you!

[on3]

2015 numbers

final unit count regular system +41.01 units
filtered system +6.26 units
5-2 system -3.71 units

[on3]

UPDATED for 4/5/2016
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 0-0-0; Profit: 0 units
Filtered System: 0-0-0; Profit: 0 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 0-0; 0-0
Game 2 (B) win = 0-0; 0-0; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 0-0; 0-0; 0-0

REGULAR FOR 4/5/2016
(B) ARI -132 -- 1.395 units

Filtered
none

5/2
none

[ScorpionSnow]

Checking in

[Suggartown]

Watching this closely. Seems like a solid chase

[on3]

no plays today, 2-0 on season

[on3]

UPDATED for 4/8/2016
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 2-0-0; Profit: +1 units
Filtered System: 0-0-0; Profit: 0 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 1-1; 0-0
Game 2 (B) win = 1-0; 0-0; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 0-0; 0-0; 0-0

REGULAR FOR 4/8/2016
(A) NYM -115 RL -- .5 unit
(A) TOR -165 -- .5 unit
(A) KC -155 -- .5 unit
SEA and COL (filtered) are both on the fringe. If by game time the home team is favored by -145 or higher, then play to win .5 unit. If COL is eligible play them for a full unit.

Filtered
none

5/2
none

[on3]

TOR and COL are both filtered plays to win 2.7 and 2.5 units respectively. SEA is a play to win 1.25 units.

[Fadeaway14]

Can you further explain this system? What makes a play filtered and regular?

[on3]

Sorry for the late post but the plays today are TOR for 5.2, COL for 5.7 and SEA for 1.6 units.

[on3]

Can you further explain this system? What makes a play filtered and regular?

If game one of an eligible series has an o/u of 9 or higher. The rest of the info is in one of the top posts of this thread.

[J.M. Disciple]

checking in.

nice cash on those two C bets today. Wondering why bet size was so large, then I checked past results.

[liqidzen]

Nobody has said anything yet and if I am understanding correctly there are a shitload of plays today

So plays for 11 April must be:

Seattle Mariners (-165) A
Oakland (-145) A
Houston (-150) A
NY Mets (-152) A
Washington (-1.5 RL) A
St Louis (-170) A
Boston (-1.5 RL) A

Please Correct me if I am wrong...

[Andy3568]

Technically correct, but some of these might move out of range (Oakland, Houston, Mets,...). I believe the system is based on final odds.

[imotiv8]

On3 will post, just be patient. But the rules are simple and you shouldn't wait for him to make your bets.

[on3]

UPDATED for 4/11/2016
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 6-1-0; Profit: -1.77 units
Filtered System: 2-0-0; Profit: +1 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 3-4; 0-2
Game 2 (B) win = 1-3; 0-2; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 2-1; 2-0; 0-0

REGULAR FOR 4/11/2016
(A) STL -165 -- .5 unit
(A) WAS -225/-110 -- .5 unit -- play RL
(A) NYM -155 -- .5 unit
(A) CHC -200/+100 -- .5 unit -- play RL
(A) BOS -192/+110 -- .5 unit -- play RL
(A) SEA -169 -- .5 unit
(A) DET -160 -- .5 unit

Filtered
DET and BOSmight qualify

5/2
none

[Rossi58]

Hopefully people noticed Det/Pitt series is split 2 games at Det than 2 games at Pitt Sorry I didn't see earlier

[Andy3568]

Hopefully people noticed Det/Pitt series is split 2 games at Det than 2 games at Pitt Sorry I didn't see earlier

True. That's why I won't play DET since I treat it like two 2-game series. But I guess you can look at it as a 4-game series as well.

[Rossi58]

That series does not apply according to previous ON3 rules. Must be at least 3 game home series

[liqidzen]

Just thought I'd contribute to this discussion with stats from 2011-2016 statistically there is some small edge to this system, the chase component should seek to amplify this edge

[Brian891]

so will detroit series be a wash? i missed the early start as luck would have it. on3 has it listed but it is a home and away as mentioned above.

[on3]

so will detroit series be a wash? i missed the early start as luck would have it. on3 has it listed but it is a home and away as mentioned above.

that was a mistake on my part. DET should not have been a play.

[on3]

UPDATED for 4/12/2016
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 9-1-0; Profit: -2.4 units
Filtered System: 2-0-0; Profit: +1 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 6-7; 0-2
Game 2 (B) win = 1-3; 0-2; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 2-1; 2-0; 0-0

REGULAR FOR 4/12/2016
(B) NYM -135 -- 1.28 units
(B) BOS -157 -- 1 unit
(B) SEA -129 -- 1.35 units

Filtered
none

5/2
none

[on3]

i wont be able to post from 4/15 through 4/18 so if someone wants to post on my behalf, please volunteer. otherwise, the rules are simple. BOL.

[J.M. Disciple]

rocky start..

[liqidzen]

I believe the plays for 13 April are:

NY Mets - C bet
Boston Red Sox - C bet
Seattle - C bet

[on3]

UPDATED for 4/13/2016
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 9-1-0; Profit: -7.44 units
Filtered System: 2-0-0; Profit: +1 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 6-7; 0-2
Game 2 (B) win = 1-6; 0-2; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 2-1; 2-0; 0-0

REGULAR FOR 4/13/2016
(C) NYM -118 -- 3.51 units
(C) BOS -124 -- 3.07 units
(C) SEA -150 -- 3.59 units

Filtered
none

5/2
none

[on3]

rocky start..

yep, that's we play at half speed the first few weeks. we have no idea who's good and who isn't.

[J.M. Disciple]

yep, that's we play at half speed the first few weeks. we have no idea who's good and who isn't.

Bos scares me. Lookin at the pitching matchup.

[J.M. Disciple]

Back in the black i missed a couple plays and playing all games RL with a different money management system but feels very nice today.