If we’re counting the Los Angeles Chargers’ early-week line of -7 against the Jacksonville Jaguars, each of the first three weeks of the NFL season has seen favorites of at least seven points lose outright. We are back to highlight the top upset picks for the NFL’s Week 4 action.
The carnage continued in Week 3, as the week’s top three favorites (Chargers -320, Kansas City Chiefs -290, and Buffalo Bills -245) all lost outright. And in all, three undefeated teams took their first losses last week.
NFL Upset Picks for Week 4
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NFL Week 4 Underdog Predictions
Lamar Jackson could be on his way to a second MVP award through three weeks. Jackson leads the NFL in passer rating (119.0) and passing touchdowns (10) while also racking up 243 rushing yards, good for fifth-most in the league. Jackson became the first player in the Super Bowl era with at least three touchdown passes and 100-plus rushing yards in back-to-back games and is the second player since 1950 with 10-plus touchdown passes and twp-plus rushing touchdowns through the first three games of the season (Josh Allen was the other in 2020).
Jackson now faces a Buffalo Bills defense that was without six starters against the Miami Dolphins and could be a similarly banged-up unit this week. The Bills allowed 21 points to the Dolphins despite possessing the ball for over 42 minutes and running 90 offensive plays. Without safeties Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde, the Bills are still excellent at limiting big plays. But Baltimore’s rushing offense is too good, especially with Jackson such a threat with his legs, to dominate time of possession that much.
Jackson is 39-13 as a starter, and last year broke the record for most wins by a quarterback before his 25th birthday. He is a winner and should not be this big of an underdog at home against an undermanned Bills team.
The Chicago Bears face a New York Giants team coming off a short week, which is a considerable disadvantage even if New York is playing its third consecutive home game.
Aside from its seemingly annual beatdown at Lambeau Field, the Bears are an impressive 2-1 and may have found an identity that can propel them to a winning record this year. Chicago ran for 281 yards against the Houston Texans, its highest rushing total since 1984. Running back Khalil Herbert filled in valiantly for an injured David Montgomery, becoming the third Bears running back in the Super Bowl era with 150-plus rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns.
Entering last week, Daniel Jones’ QBR of 30 ranked 28th in the league, and he was 7-for-13 for 85 yards and eight sacks when pressured. The Bears forced San Francisco 49ers QB Trey Lance into 1-for-7 for minus-2 passing yards when they pressured him on 35% of his dropbacks in Week 1 and should similarly disrupt Jones this week.
The Arizona Cardinals lost their seventh consecutive home game for the first time since 1956-58 when they were the Chicago Cardinals, but they have been an equally historic team on the road of late for positive reasons.
Arizona has won seven consecutive games outright as road underdogs, tying the 1980-81 Seattle Seahawks for the longest winning streak as road underdogs in the Super Bowl era. The Cardinals' offense has looked out of sync without suspended wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. Still, we are not dismissing Arizona so quickly after a 20-12 loss to the Los Angeles Rams last week, a team the Cardinals have always struggled with in the Sean McVay era.
The Cardinals are still facing a Carolina Panthers team that is just 3-14 against the spread in their last 17 games and won for the first time in 10 games last week.
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NFL Week 4 upset picks made 9/27/2022 at 2:14 p.m. ET.