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NFL Teaser Picks Week 16: San Francisco 49ers Should Keep Winning

Neil Parker

Last Updated: January 1, 0001 12:00 AM EST • 3 min 26 sec read.

Nick Bosa of the San Francisco 49ers and Charles Omenihu of the San Francisco 49ers celebrate after Bosa's sack during the first quarter against the Miami Dolphins at Levi's Stadium on Dec. 04, 2022. Photo by Thearon W. Henderson Getty Images via AFP.
Nick Bosa of the San Francisco 49ers and Charles Omenihu of the San Francisco 49ers celebrate after Bosa's sack during the first quarter against the Miami Dolphins at Levi's Stadium on December 04, 2022. Photo by Thearon W. Henderson Getty Images via AFP.

The San Francisco 49ers' top-ranked defense has made life easy for rookie quarterback Brock Purdy, and the Niners are a top recommendation from our NFL Week 16 teaser picks.

Teasers are popular wagers for both professional and recreational betters. They enable you to move multiple spread and/or totals above or below key numbers and ranges for an increased vig. Our teaser betting primer offers additional information and strategies.

Check out our NFL Week 16 odds and lines analysis and our against-the-spread power rankings.

Here are our NFL teaser picks for Week 16 (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook).

Week 16 NFL ATS Teaser Picks

Favorite to tease down: 49ers (-7.5)

The 49ers are the best defense by DVOA per Football Outsiders and grade per Pro Football Focus, so I’m happy to tease this spread down through multiple key numbers to San Fran -1.5. Add allowing just 11.0 points per contest during their seven-game winning streak, and I expect the Niners to hold the Washington Commanders in check Saturday.

Washington totaled a pedestrian 32 total points through its past two games – both against the lowly New York Giants defense – and the Commanders rank 26th in offensive DVOA with the 25th-lowest EPA per play.

Additionally, I value the extra rest for San Fran. The Niners played the Thursday Night Football game in Week 15, whereas Washington has to travel with a short turnaround following its loss on Sunday Night Football.

I’m expecting the betting community to continue supporting the 49ers leading into Saturday, too. This spread could continue to grow, and you should land closing-line value by adding this leg to a teaser Tuesday.

Underdog to tease up: Saints (+3) or Raiders (+2.5)

I’m expecting a low-scoring game between the New Orleans Saints and Cleveland Browns because of the forecasted freezing temperatures, snow flurries and wind gusts up to 48 mph at FirstEnergy Stadium on Saturday. The points are also more valuable in a low-scoring contest, and the total for this game is just 31.5.

Additionally, if the elements are prohibitive to passing the ball, the Browns are vulnerable to the ground attack. They’ve allowed the highest EPA per rush and grade last in run defense per PFF. However, the Saints are far from a stout defensive unit against the run, and the offense ranks 31st in rush DVOA since Week 10. If this turns into a run-heavy battle, the Browns might even have the edge.

While I have a gut feeling the Las Vegas Raiders are going to keep things interesting against the Pittsburgh Steelers this week and have a good shot at winning outright – there just isn’t a noticeable advantage or angle that is affirming it. In fact, all I can think about is how foolish it is to back an inconsistent team on the road that also sports the worst defensive DVOA in the league.

Compounding it, the Raiders have faced the easiest schedule of opposing teams by DVOA, whereas the Steelers have faced the second-toughest, and I can’t look past Vegas being blown out 24-0 on the road by the Saints in Week 8, either. 

I think the added six points will be enough for both of these teams to cover an inflated spread, but I’m not personally including the Saints or Raiders in a teaser.

Check out our Week 16 upset picks.

Week 16 NFL O/U Teaser Picks

Total to tease down: Seahawks-Chiefs (48.5)

A six-point teaser moves this total below the key range of 43-44, and I expect both defenses to struggle again Saturday. The Kansas City Chiefs and Seattle Seahawks respectively rank 24th and 25th in defensive DVOA, and both units have been even worse over the past three weeks.

Furthermore, KC has allowed the Denver Broncos (28) and Houston Texans (24) to combine for 52 points in its past two games. Those two offenses respectively rank 32nd and 30th in points per game, too. Seattle has also surrendered the fourth most points per contest (25.4).

It’s a completely different story on the other side of the ball. The Chiefs trot out a juggernaut offense that paces the NFL in DVOA and grade per PFF, whereas the Seahawks rank 12th and 10th, respectively.

Total to tease up: Falcons-Ravens (37.5)

While this could prove to be too simplistic of a handicap, I’m expecting the Baltimore Ravens defense to shut down visiting Atlanta Falcons rookie quarterback Desmond Ridder on Saturday.

Baltimore has the third-ranked defensive DVOA and surrendered the fourth-lowest EPA per play since linebacker Roquan Smith joined the team in Week 9, and the run defense also ranks first in both metrics.

So, with the Ravens scoring just 29 points across their past three games, I’m confident in teasing this total up through the key range of 40-41 to 43.5. 

There’s potential Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (knee) is able to return for this Week 16 tilt, but I expect the Baltimore brass to be incredibly precautious. The Ravens can win this game by leaning on their run game and defense with Tyler Huntley starting behind center.

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Teaser picks made on 12/20/2022 at 2:15 p.m. ET.

Written By:
Neil Parker
A lifelong Cowboys, Cubs, Maple Leafs and Gators supporter, Neil has been covering sports in print and online since 2011. His past stops include USA TODAY, theScore, DraftKings Playbook and RotoWire among others. He's a graduate of St. Thomas University and Acadia University and spends ample time at KenWo Golf Club.