Patriots vs. Bills Week 13 Picks: Will New England Win Seventh Straight?
Monday Night Football features the 8-4 New England Patriots and 7-4 Buffalo Bills. The Patriots are the hottest team in football thanks to this sudden explosion while the Bills are working to get back on track. We're breaking down the betting matchup in our Patriots-Bills picks.
The AFC East features teams with the top two point differentials in the NFL. The Patriots have won six straight games through an elite defense and well-planned offense. They're also 8-4 against the spread, so they've been a profitable team for us all year.
The Bills started the season well but have been exposed as a bit of a disjointed team in the last few weeks. They either play great or terribly and their time to find a rhythm is up. Losing this game could cement the Bills' status as runner-up for the division.
Here are my picks and predictions for the NFL Week 13 matchup between the Patriots and Bills. (Odds via DraftKings; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).
Patriots vs. Bills Game Info
Date/Time: Monday, Dec. 6, at 8:15 p.m. ETTV: ESPNLocation: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NYWeather: Mostly cloudy, 34 degrees at kickoff
Patriots vs. Bills Odds Analysis
The Bills surprisingly opened as 3.5-point favorites and the market has corrected to -2.5 at all books. The Bills are a solid team, but have not nearly been as consistent as the Patriots. The market feels New England has the coaching advantage, at the very least.
Meanwhile, the spread has dipped a little bit from 46 to the 42.5-to-43 range. This is not the correct direction and I think it could stand to go down even a few more points. Nonetheless, we'll take full advantage of this number.
Patriots vs. Bills Picks
Patriots +3 (-115) ????Over 42 (-110) ????
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Patriots vs. Bills Predictions
Patriots +3 (-115)
What a wild six-game hot streak from the Patriots. They're red-hot and have great consistency across the board. But they're not an incredibly talented team or offer high offensive upside, so their clock is ticking on when they'll be exposed.
Buffalo has the potential but hasn't been consistently good either. QB Josh Allen and the offense is hit or miss, and Patriots coach Bill Belichick will do his best to confuse the unit into turnovers. I like the Patriots to keep it close if not earn the outright win.
Over 42 (-110)
I can see the rationalization on why this would be a low-scoring game. These are the top-two scoring defenses with great defensive head coaches. However, that overlooks the offensive caliber of play on both sides.
The NFL favors the offense and these are top-10 scoring offenses. I expect the Bills to fully unleash Allen and the Patriots will need to scheme a great game for Mac Jones to have success. There's too much at stake in this prime-time game for the final to be a low score.
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Picks made 12/3/2021 at 1:05 a.m. ET