Packers vs. Dolphins Odds, Picks, Predictions Week 16: Which Streak Will Continue on Christmas Day?

As the NBA dominates Christmas Day, the NFL's Sunday slate is reduced to three games with the Green Bay Packers and Miami Dolphins getting things underway. Check out our top Packers-Dolphins NFL picks.

Only one streak can continue when the Dolphins and Packers square off in Miami on Christmas Day. The Packers now have a 6-8 overall record after winning back-to-back games, while the Dolphins dropped three in a row to fall to 8-6.

Miami is currently the No. 7 seed in the AFC Playoffs, but holding on for dear life in a competitive conference. The Packers are somehow still in the mix in a weak NFC, but need to make these games count during the regular season's home stretch.

Here is our best Packers vs. Dolphins Week 16 NFL pick (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our Packers vs. Dolphins SGP Picks and Aaron Rodgers vs. Tua Tagovailoa Prop Picks, and all of our top NFL picks for Sunday's action.

Packers vs. Dolphins Game Info

• Date: Sunday, Dec. 25, 1 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
• Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL
• Weather: 57 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 12-mph NNW winds

Packers vs. Dolphins Odds

Packers vs. Dolphins Odds Analysis

This is one of the few games over the weekend not impacted by weather, so movement has been minimal, especially from a spread perspective. The Dolphins opened as 3.5-point favorites and the spread stuck at 3.5 or 4 for most of the week. At the time of writing, 55% of spread bets opted to lay points.

The betting market moved the total, which opened at 46.5 and has climbed to 49.5 or 50 across the board. Both teams have a 7-7 clip on totals this year, but the Over attracted 78% of the bets at Pregame.com.

  Check out our NFL Best Bets and all of our top NFL Picks for Week 16.  

Packers vs. Dolphins Pick

Packers +3.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Sure, Green Bay’s 2-0 clip in December should come with an asterisk. The Packers only defeated the Chicago Bears (28-19) and L.A. Rams (24-12) this month, with a bye sandwiched in between.

But the Dolphins have also been a bit exposed recently, as their offense was held to 17 points or fewer in two of the last three outings. Phins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa hasn’t had a Pro Football Focus grade higher than 63.5 over that stretch, posting a mark lower than 50 in two of those games.

The Pack, meanwhile, rank third in offensive DVOA since Week 10. Rookie wide receiver Christian Watson emerged as a reliable option for QB Aaron Rodgers. It's never a good idea to count out the back-to-back NFL MVP, especially with Green Bay trending in the right direction at the opportune time.

As long as this spread sits north of a field goal, take the underdog. The Packers might very well record their first three-game win streak since Weeks 2-4 for a special Christmas Day gift.

Packers vs. Dolphins Best Odds

FanDuel (-105) 

Those wanting to back the underdog could have grabbed a 4-point spread Thursday night, but the line dropped to a consensus 3.5 by Friday morning. As a result, getting the best line comes down to the juice.

In that case, it really doesn't matter where you place your bet. FanDuel was offering slight value at -105, but that number is gone. PointsBet has moved off its standard -107 line, as well. You're now getting the same price at all five sportsbooks.

Packers-Dolphins pick made 12/23/2022 at 10 a.m. ET.

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