NFL Over/Under Picks, Predictions Week 13: Rusty Deshaun Watson in Browns Debut?
We comb through the Week 13 NFL slate to find value in the Over/Under markets. Read on for our best O/U picks.
An AFC West showdown could produce the type of high-powered offense we expected from this division before the season began. Elsewhere, we’re fading the scoring prowess of recently installed starting quarterbacks--including Cleveland Browns QB Deshaun Watson in his season debut.
Here are our top NFL Week 13 Over/Under picks (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, and BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-5 star scale).
NFL Week 13 Over/Under Picks
- Browns-Texans Under 47.5 (-118 via FanDuel) ★★★★
- Seahawks-Rams Under 41.5 (-110 via FanDuel) ★★★★
- Chargers-Raiders Over 50.5 (-110 via BetMGM and FanDuel) ★★★★
Browns-Texans Under 47.5 (-118) ★★★★
When it comes to Watson getting back behind center, he hasn't played an NFL game for almost two years. It wouldn’t be surprising to see some rust on a player who's been out of this competitive environment so long.
Although Houston defense's ranks an NFL 27th in DVOA, the combination of a sluggish Watson and hapless Texans’ offense could render this number a bit lofty. Scoring just 15.8 points per game (NFL 31st), the Texans cleared this total in only four matchups all year. Kyle Allen’s elevation to starting QB last week didn’t change Houston’s effectiveness, as the Texans were shut out until the Miami Dolphins began deploying backups late in a blowout.
FanDuel offers the most favorable line for Under bettors, listing the total at 47.5 (-118). Though those odds are inflated on the Under side, 47 is a common enough total that I’m satisfied taking the lesser odds for the more favorable number. DraftKings and BetMGM offer the total at 47 with standard -110 odds.
Seahawks-Rams Under 41.5 (-110) ★★★★
The L.A. Rams are in an absolute shambles. QB Matthew Stafford is out for the foreseeable future. Wide receiver Cooper Kupp isn’t coming back anytime soon. WR Allen Robinson is now out for the year. Oh, and the defense lost defensive tackle Aaron Donald in a low-scoring, 26-10 defeat to the Kansas City Chiefs.
Though Donald's injury should mean a more comfortable pocket for Seattle quarterback Geno Smith, the Rams still boast a solid enough defense, the league's 16th in DVOA. Seattle’s D permits 25.5 PPG, one of the NFL's worst--but with Bryce Perkins or John Wolford behind center leading an undermanned Rams' O-line, Los Angeles simply won’t have the horses to take advantage of it.
FanDuel is the best spot for Under bettors, the only location that offers the total at 41.5. FanDuel’s odds are -110, so there are no odds benefits to playing the lesser number of 41 (-110) at DraftKings and BetMGM.
Chargers-Raiders Over 50.5 (-110) ★★★★
The Raiders are the only NFL team this season who haven't seen any home games go Under the total. Vegas home games are 3-0-1 on Overs. This week, Vegas hosts a Chargers' offense that could hit its stride at the right time.
Los Angeles averaged 26 points over its last two games, which coincides with wideout Keenan Allen's return. The Raiders have the NFL's worst Defense DVOA and rank 32nd against the pass, which could mean a massive day for Chargers QB Justin Herbert. The Raiders’ 11th-ranked Offense DVOA should also keep things competitive against a Chargers’ scoring defense that ranks a league 29th (25.6 PPG).
FanDuel and BetMGM offer the preferred odds for Over bettors in this matchup, as you get standard -110 odds on Over 50.5 at those sportsbooks. That’s a mild improvement against the -115 odds attached to the Over 50.5 at DraftKings.
Where to Bet on Week 13 Over/Under Picks
Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:
Week 13 Over/Under NFL picks made 11/30/2022 at 5:01 p.m. ET.
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