🏈 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Best Bets: Top 2026 OROY Contenders After Round 1

The two favorites in the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds race are no surprise, considering they were the first offensive players off the board during the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft.

With Fernando Mendoza going No. 1 to the Las Vegas Raiders, and the Arizona Cardinals throwing positional value out the window for Jeremiyah Love at No. 3, the All-Americans opened atop the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds. 

While Love (+290) and Mendoza (+320) are the favorites to win OROY, recent history says neither fits the resume, which is why my NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year best bets focus on the pass catchers.

📊 2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds

2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds via our best sports betting sites.

🎯 The OROY resume: Trends to target

Looking at the last decade of NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year winners, I've identified several trends to help narrow down who the best bets are to win the award for the 2026-27 season.

• Quarterbacks have won NFL OROY five times in the last 10 years
• Wide receivers have won NFL OROY three times in the last five years
• Only two running backs have won NFL OROY in the last decade, and none have won since 2018
• Over the last 10 years, 14 running backs have been drafted in the first round, but only Saquon Barkley has won OROY
• Eight straight OROY winners were selected in the top 10 picks of the NFL draft - the only two who weren't, Alvin Kamara and Dak Prescott, weren't selected in the top 65 picks
• Over the last 10 years, quarterbacks have been selected No. 1 eight times, but only one of them has won NFL OROY (Kyler Murray) - the second or third QB selected has won it three times in the last six years

When applying these trends with the context of the 2026 NFL Draft class, two rookies jump out as the best NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year bets.

💰 OROY best bets for 2026

Carnell Tate, WR, Titans (+650)

• Prospect profile: 6'2" | 192 lbs | 21 years old | RAS: N/A
• 2025 college stats: 51 receptions, 875 yards, 9 TDs
• Pro comparison: Bigger DeVonta Smith

While Carnell Tate wasn't viewed in the same way as recent top wide receiver prospects, he checks several boxes for an NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate. The Buckeye star was the first receiver off the board and steps into a situation where he can compete to be the go-to pass catcher immediately for a former No. 1 pick in Cam Ward. 

Ward had bright flashes last season as a rookie for the Tennessee Titans, and his big arm should pair perfectly with a vertical threat like Tate, who dominated downfield contested catches at Ohio State (85.7% contested catch rate). Plus, the former Buckeye has elite ball skills (zero drops in 2025) and is an ascending route runner. He should quickly build trust with Ward.

Two of the last three wide receivers to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year were the first pass catchers drafted, and both of them (Ja'Marr Chase, Tetairoa McMillan) had the former No. 1 pick throwing to them as rookies.

➡️ Carnell Tate prospect profile & scouting report

Jordyn Tyson, WR, Saints (+850)

• Prospect profile: 6'2" | 203 lbs | 21 years old | RAS: N/A
• 2025 college stats: 61 receptions, 711 yards, 9 total TDs
• Pro comparison: Amari Cooper

If not for injuries, Jordyn Tyson may have ended up the first wide receiver off the board on Thursday night. When he was on the field at Arizona State, he was one of the best chain movers in the country, with 88 of his 136 receptions the last two seasons going for first downs. 

Tyson's game should translate quickly to the NFL, with his dynamic route running, deep release package, and twitchy movement skills. And now he enters a New Orleans Saints offense where he should see plenty of single coverage with Chris Olave opposite him. 

While you could argue that Olave's presence will take away opportunities for Tyson, Kellen Moore's offenses have a history of strong production with No. 2 wide receivers. When Moore was the Dallas Cowboys' offensive coordinator, he had Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb cooking, and it was the same story when he was calling plays for AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith with the Philadelphia Eagles.

➡️ Jordyn Tyson prospect profile & scouting report

⭐️ What about the two biggest favorites?

Fernando Mendoza, QB, Raiders (+320)

• Prospect profile: 6'5" | 236 lbs | 22 years old | RAS: N/A
• 2025 college stats: 3,535 passing yards, 72%, 41 TDs, 6 INTs, 7 rushing TDs
• Pro comparison: Carson Palmer

Not only do No. 1 picks at quarterback rarely win OROY, but the Raiders' situation should scare bettors away from backing Mendoza.

Obviously, he just won the Heisman and led Indiana to a national championship, but it sounds like he won't be starting as a rookie, at least early on. With Kirk Cousins in the building and familiar with Klint Kubiak's offense, Mendoza likely won't start until at least October.

That's without mentioning that Las Vegas' roster is weak at wide receiver and iffy at offensive line, even with the Tyler Linderbaum signing. Last year, Ashton Jeanty opened as the OROY favorite but didn't finish in the top six in voting while playing behind the Raiders' O-line.

Jeremiyah Love, RB, Cardinals (+290)

• Prospect profile: 6'0" | 212 lbs | 20 years old | RAS: N/A
• 2025 college stats: 1,652 yards from scrimmage, 21 total TDs
• Pro comparison: Edgerrin James

Speaking of Jeanty and banking on uber-talented running backs to thrive early in bad situations, Love's value is atrocious at this price. Yes, he's the most dynamic rookie in the class and has everything you could want in a future All-Pro running back, but the Arizona Cardinals are, well, the Arizona Cardinals.

The right side of Arizona's offensive line is a mess, Jacoby Brissett/Gardner Minshew will be under center, and new head coach Mike LaFleur is calling plays for the first time since getting fired as the New York Jets' offensive coordinator in 2023.

Like with Mendoza, this is not a judgment of the player and more about fading a situation that doesn't add up to winning OROY. Similar to Jeanty last year, the pieces aren't around Love for him to live up to being the favorite.

➡️ Jeremiyah Love prospect profile & scouting report

🔍 Final verdict: Where is the value?

Carnell Tate to win OROY (+650)

Given Mendoza and Love's situations and their prices at our best NFL betting sites, and the recent history of NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year winners, Tate is the best bet this far out from the season.

He's entering an offense with a QB who's going to give him plenty of opportunities downfield and in 50/50 situations, the two places Tate is at his best.

With his fluid route running, top-notch ball skills, and fit with Ward, Tate is in the best position to shine as a rookie.