NFL Week 4 Best Bets: Jaguars vs. Bengals Thursday Night Football Picks

It’s a battle of the last two number one picks this week as Trevor Lawrence takes on Joe Burrow. Can Lawrence get his first win in the NFL, or will Burrow cement the Bengals position atop the AFC North? For your NFL picks, read my prediction below.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Thursday, September 30, 2021 - 08:20 PM EDT at Paul Brown Stadium

This game is currently sitting with the Bengals over a touchdown favorite on the spread line which has bounced up a little from before the weekend's matches, and the total is relatively low at 45.5.

https://youtu.be/iH__bSpBgYw

What’s Gone Wrong for Trevor Lawrence So Far?

It has not been a good start for Lawrence who hadn’t lost a game since high school before playing for the Jaguars this season. He had been destined for the number one pick since his early teens and that happened last year, but it’s tough to say he’s been deserving of that pick so far with 5 TDs, but 7 interceptions on the season.

As so often happens with high draft picks they get thrust into poor situations and that happened here. The Jaguars brought in Urban Meyer from college with the hope of reproducing some of the success both had at that level, but coaching kids is a lot different from coaching in the NFL and so far Meyer has failed to raise his game to the pro-level.

https://twitter.com/Jaguars/status/1442165691461812225?s=20

The offensive line is poor, and after losing Lawrences’ college teammate Travis Etienne before the season even started the run game hasn’t got going, although they did finally realize that James Robinson is a good talent and gave him more touches this weekend.

The Jaguars and Lawrences’ start to the season was summed up by a botched flea-flicker this week which he threw for a pick six. It shouldn’t have been thrown, but he seems to be playing with such reckless abandon even Philip Rivers would be jealous.

How Have the Bengals Done So Far?

It’s been a good start for the Bengals having beaten the spread line in wins against the Vikings and the Steelers, with a loss to the Bears sandwiched in there, leaving them at 2-1 and top of the AFC North.

It’s tough to judge those games so far, the Vikings look quite good and were defeated in overtime. Had it not been for 3 INTs in 3 attempts for Joe Burrow they probably would have beaten a poor Bears team, and even this weekend’s victory against a terrible Steelers side has an asterisk as they were missing many defensive players.

https://twitter.com/Bengals/status/1442246725440212992?s=20

I am a fan, but generally a pessimistic one, I’ve had enough pain from this franchise that I’m numb to it, so it’s strange writing about them being favorites for a game. The defense was much-maligned last season but with everyone healthy has proven to be the strength of the team so far.

They can generate a pass rush with Hendrickson, they’ve been able to stop the run; holding Dalvin Cook and David Montgomery to 61, and Najee to 40 on the ground, and the passing defense has been good as well.

The offense though has stuttered. They are insistent on getting Joe Mixon going and gave him another 20 carries this weekend, leaving them now with more run plays than passing plays. He’s done well with them, averaging 4.3 per carry, but it leaves them in 3rd and 5+ situations too often.

Joe Mixon #28 of the Cincinnati Bengals. Dylan Buell/Getty Images/AFP.

When they do go deep the connection between Burrow and his college team-mate Chase has been excellent, 4 TDs already from that pairing including 2 this past weekend. Chase has requested more deep balls his way and it’s worked very, very well. Hopefully, it will for the next decade or so for the Bengals.

We will need to keep an eye on Tee Higgins's availability after he missed this weekend. He nearly made it this weekend, so I would assume he’ll be a go on Thursday night.

So, How Does This Game Go?

Obviously, NFL odds indicate that the Bengals should be winning it. They’re in better form and if they can protect Joe Burrow half as well as this week they should be able to put up points on a poor Jags defense.

The Jags need Lawrence to stop making mistakes, and in prime-time, he could put on a show, but the Bengals defense has been good enough to make me think that won’t be the case. If he gives them short fields as he has done in his games so far then it will gift the Bengals the win.

Can I take them to cover over a touchdown though? Not at all. Zac Taylor has a way of letting teams back into games when there’s a decent lead.

NFL Pick: (visit our Sportsbook Review)

*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.