NFL Week 3 Picks: Teams on Upset Alert This Weekend

The first two weeks of the season were dramatic. That means there will be plenty of dogs barking in Week 3 and we’ve pinpointed two underdogs that have the best chance of pulling the upset. Let's take a look at their NFL odds.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Sunday, September 26, 2021 - 01:00 PM EDT at Heinz Field

In Week 1, when the Steelers knocked off the Buffalo Bills, everyone’s analysis suddenly changed. Most analysts believed the Steelers would have a down year. But once Pittsburgh beat the Bills, everyone’s opinions changed. 

This is what people mean when they say don’t overreact to Week 1. The Steelers lost their next game to the Las Vegas Raiders and now sit 1-1 on the season. 

https://youtu.be/bIfft3wLMYY

The offense of the Steelers hasn’t been all that. Pittsburgh is averaging under 300 yards of offense in their first two games of the season with Ben Roethlisberger under center.

Big Ben has two touchdowns and one interception in two games this season along with 483 yards in the air. 

Najee Harris has been effective in the passing game but so far the rookie running back from Alabama has 26 carries for just 83 yards.

https://twitter.com/steelers/status/1439680537912881163?s=20

The pass protection and run block haven't been great from the Steelers. That’s a factor as to why the passing game and running game have not excelled to start the season. 

Defensively, the Steelers have one of the best pass rushes in the NFL but the coverage has allowed 326 yards per game in the air through two games. The pass rush can only do so much if the coverage is going to be that poor.

Again, the Steelers have been fantastic against the run, just like last season. 

Cincy's rush defense has been decent so far. David Montgomery #32 of the Bears was slowed down in Week 2. Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images/AFP

Division Foes

The Bengals, on the other hand, have averaged 343 yards per game and 22 points per game. Joe Burrow had a Sunday to forget against the Bears last week but has plenty of weapons and a defense that has started to put things together.

Burrow won’t have all day in the pocket thanks to a below-average offensive line but he’s got the playmakers to make big plays at receiver and running back. 

On the other side of the ball, things look much better for Cincinnati. The rushing defense has shut down opponents to just 95 yards per game and the coverage along with the pass rush really has been slightly above average.

https://twitter.com/Bengals/status/1439677873359659013?s=20

The Pick

The tackling will be an issue but the Bengals are playing good football. A couple of fewer mistakes from Burrow and Tee Higgins against the Bears and they’d be 2-0. 

Why not take them against a below-average Steelers team? 

NFL Pick: (visit our Sportsbook Review)

Saint's DT Malcolm Roach #97 celebrates with teammates after an interception against the Panthers on Week 2. Mike Comer/Getty Images/AFP

New Orleans Saints vs. New England Patriots

Sunday, September 26, 2021 - 01:00 PM EDT at Gillette Stadium

We don’t need to hype up the Patriots. They just defeated the New York Jets to go 1-1 on the season. They did their thing against the worst team in the league. The Patriots are still averaging just 20.5 points per game on the season.

Offensively, the pass protection and run blocking have been less than stellar. 

That’s bad news going up against the Saints defense that will have one of the better pass rushes in the league. The defense has also stacked up well against the rush, allowing just 66 yards per game on the ground this season. 

https://twitter.com/Patriots/status/1439668304382251008?s=20

The Saints were quiet last week against the Panthers, losing 26-7. It was surprising after a 38-3 win over the Packers. We can’t overreact to the win or get too down on the loss.

The reality is, the Patriots are playing a rookie quarterback who hasn’t exactly scored that many points in his first two games of the season. Mac Jones has one touchdown on 69 attempts and is backed with a terrible offensive line. 

The Pick

The Saints and Patriots are both well-coached. It’s going to be a close game. This is more of a pick-em if anything. Instead, we’re getting the Saints at +130. Snag it for your NFL picks of the week. 

NFL Pick:

*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.