Three NFL Team Win Totals to Fade Based on Preseason

With the 2022 NFL preseason firmly behind us, we take a look at team win totals to fade based on how they played in August.

Sports bettors got their first taste of NFL action in August, with three weeks of preseason action. While it can be difficult to predict how a team will perform in the regular season based solely on their August performances, the preseason does provide a glimpse of the challenges facing each team, and the possible steps they may take to address.

Here are our best bets for NFL team win totals that sports bettors should consider fading based on the preseason (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, BetRivers, and Barstool Sportsbook).

NFL Team Win Totals, Odds

NFL Team Win Total Predictions

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Three Team Win Totals to Fade Based on Preseason

Jets Under 5.5 Wins (+135)

The New York Jets were one of just six teams to go undefeated during this year’s NFL preseason. However, their success in meaningless games against opponents that largely sat their regulars should not give NFL betting fans the false impression that this team has turned the corner after six straight losing seasons.

Certainly, there are many things to like about the team direction. The Jets came away from the 2022 NFL Draft with some impressive talent, most notably cornerback Sauce Gardner, whose arrival should positively impact a Jets pass defense that ranked third last in the NFL last season by yards per game. The offense could also take a step forward if wide receiver Elijah Moore can build on his impressive rookie campaign that featured 538 receiving yards and five scoring catches.

An injury to starting quarterback Zach Wilson could spell trouble for this team, as they prepare to open the campaign with four straight matchups against AFC North opponents. In fact, it's tough to identify any favorable stretch during New York’s schedule that includes road dates in Green Bay, Denver, and Minnesota, not to mention dates with fast-improving divisional rivals.

Further complicating matters will be the steady procession of elite pass rushers the Jets will face. That remains a particular concern after the offensive line allowed Jets pivots to be sacked 53 times last season.

Seahawks Under 5.5 Wins (+115)

NFL fans in Seattle have already braced themselves for a long, painful rebuild in the wake of the Seahawks’ decision to deal star QB, Russell Wilson, to the Denver Broncos following their first losing campaign in a decade.  However, with Drew Lock failing to seize the opportunity to win the starting QB job after arriving in town as part of the Wilson trade, things could get worse.

While Lock looked steady in his preseason debut against the Pittsburgh Steelers — connecting on a pair of scoring passes in a heartbreaking 32-25 loss to the Steelers — he underwhelmed in subsequent appearances before eventually losing the battle to Geno Smith for the starting job. Now 31 years old, it has been eight years since Smith last won a starting job. And while he didn’t embarrass himself in three preseason appearances, he didn’t find the end zone either in any of those contests.

The Seahawks are taking steps to make their current rebuild as painless as possible, and never underestimate the creativity of head coach Pete Carroll. But fans of the team should be prepared to stay patient during what is shaping up to be a long season.

Cardinals Under 8.5 Wins (-110)

Super Bowl 57 is scheduled to take place at State Farm Stadium, the home of the Arizona Cardinals. But as the preseason winded done, there was little reason to expect the Cardinals to be in action in front of hometown fans on Super Bowl Sunday.

Apart from their preseason-opening win over the toothless Cincinnati Bengals, the Cardinals did little to impress in August. While Trace McSorley was steady while taking most of the preseason snaps as Kyler Murray and Colt McCoy nursed injuries, his performance was not enough to prevent him from being cut on Tuesday morning. Both Murray and McCoy are reportedly ready for action. But the Cards’ receiving corps is diminished by the loss of DeAndre Hopkins to a six-game suspension, and tight end Zach Ertz’s struggles with injuries.

Those absences and injuries loom large as the Cardinals prepare for a tough opening month to their schedule that features clashes with the Kansas City Chiefs, Las Vegas Raiders, and the Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams.

Where to Bet on NFL Win Total Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel Sportsbook
Caesars Sportsbook
DraftKings Sportsbook
PointsBet
BetMGM

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Top NFL win total picks made 8/30/2022 at 8:39 p.m. ET.