NFL AI Predictions: Week 5 ATS Picks & Score Projections for Every Matchup
Week 5 of the NFL season begins Thursday night with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers visiting the Dallas Cowboys before the league returns to London for Eagles-Jaguars on Sunday morning.
Below are AI score predictions and ATS picks for every Week 5 matchup. All kickoff times are Eastern Time, while spreads are based on the Kalshi market as of Thursday, October 8.
The AI model considers performance through the first three weeks, advanced metrics, injuries, roster strength, matchup advantages, home-field edge, and current market movement when projecting each game.
Check out the complete 2026 NFL schedule and follow all of SBR's NFL picks throughout the season.
NFL AI predictions for Week 5
| Date | Kickoff | Prediction | ATS Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct. 8 | 8:15 p.m. | Cowboys 34, Buccaneers 13 | Cowboys -7.5 |
| Oct. 11 | 9:30 a.m. | Jaguars 31, Eagles 17 | Jaguars -6.5 |
| Oct. 11 | 1:00 p.m. | Browns 24, Jets 13 | Browns +1.5 |
| Oct. 11 | 1:00 p.m. | Bears 30, Packers 17 | Bears -2.5 |
| Oct. 11 | 1:00 p.m. | Bengals 24, Dolphins 10 | Bengals -7.5 |
| Oct. 11 | 1:00 p.m. | Raiders 24, Patriots 20 | Raiders +3.5 |
| Oct. 11 | 1:00 p.m. | Vikings 27, Saints 16 | Vikings -2.5 |
| Oct. 11 | 1:00 p.m. | Texans 30, Titans 13 | Texans -6.5 |
| Oct. 11 | 1:00 p.m. | Giants 27, Commanders 17 | Giants +3.5 |
| Oct. 11 | 1:00 p.m. | Steelers 27, Colts 20 | Steelers -2.5 |
| Oct. 11 | 4:05 p.m. | Broncos 30, Chargers 16 | Broncos -3.5 |
| Oct. 11 | 4:25 p.m. | Lions 34, Cardinals 20 | Lions -4.5 |
| Oct. 11 | 4:25 p.m. | 49ers 27, Seahawks 24 | 49ers +2.5 |
| Oct. 11 | 8:20 p.m. | Ravens 27, Falcons 20 | Ravens +3.5 |
| Oct. 12 | 8:15 p.m. | Bills 31, Rams 24 | Bills +2.5 |
Buccaneers vs Cowboys AI prediction
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| Cowboys | 7 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 34 |
Tampa Bay remains without Baker Mayfield, with rookie Jalon Daniels set to make another start after throwing for only 148 yards against Green Bay. Dallas just produced 34 points in Houston and has the offensive talent to punish a Buccaneers team playing on a short week.
ATS pick: Cowboys -7.5
Eagles vs Jaguars AI prediction
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eagles | 0 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 17 |
| Jaguars | 7 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 31 |
Philadelphia has dropped consecutive games after its 2-0 start, while Jacksonville has followed a blowout victory over New England with another road win in Cincinnati. The Jaguars have been considerably more consistent on both sides of the ball and should be able to create separation in London.
ATS pick: Jaguars -6.5
Browns vs Jets AI prediction
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Browns | 7 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 24 |
| Jets | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
Cleveland enters with momentum after beating Pittsburgh on Thursday, while the Jets continue to struggle offensively. New York being favored makes the Browns even more appealing. Cleveland's defense gives it a dependable foundation, and the Jets haven't shown enough consistency to justify laying points in this matchup.
ATS pick: Browns +1.5
Bears vs Packers AI prediction
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bears | 7 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 30 |
| Packers | 3 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 17 |
Chicago has responded impressively after a difficult start, beating Philadelphia 27-7 before handling the Jets 23-12. Green Bay escaped Tampa Bay with a three-point victory but hasn't consistently generated offense. Chicago's current form makes the Bears the stronger straight-up side entering this NFC North matchup.
ATS pick:-2.5
Bengals vs Dolphins AI prediction
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bengals | 7 | 10 | 0 | 7 | 24 |
| Dolphins | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
Cincinnati's receiving corps needs to be monitored after Ja'Marr Chase entered concussion protocol and Tee Higgins suffered an adductor injury against Jacksonville. Miami remains winless, however, and has scored only 20 total points over its last two games. Cincinnati should still have enough offense to pull away.
ATS pick: Bengals -7.5
Raiders vs Patriots AI prediction
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 7 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 24 |
| Patriots | 3 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 20 |
New England deserves credit for going into Buffalo and earning a 29-26 victory, but Las Vegas has played consistently competitive football and nearly knocked off Kansas City. There isn't much separating these teams, and getting more than a field goal with the Raiders makes them the preferred ATS side.
ATS pick: Raiders +3.5
Vikings vs Saints AI prediction
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings | 7 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 27 |
| Saints | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 16 |
Minnesota continues to win behind one of the league's stronger defenses and held Miami to just 10 points Sunday. New Orleans also faces a shorter turnaround after playing Monday night. The Vikings don't need a huge offensive performance here if their defense once again controls the matchup.
ATS pick: Vikings -2.5
Texans vs Titans AI prediction
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texans | 7 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 30 |
| Titans | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
Houston remains winless, but the offense finally broke through for 30 points against Dallas as C.J. Stroud threw for 347 yards. Tennessee has yet to top 18 points in a game. This looks like a favorable spot for the Texans to turn improved offensive production into a convincing first victory.
ATS pick: Texans -6.5
Giants vs Commanders AI prediction
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giants | 7 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 27 |
| Commanders | 3 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 17 |
New York finally found some offense in its 36-24 victory over Arizona, while Washington managed only 13 points against Indianapolis. The Commanders also have significant uncertainty at quarterback after Marcus Mariota injured his knee. The Giants have enough momentum to take advantage and win this outright.
ATS pick: Giants +3.5
Colts vs Steelers AI prediction
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colts | 3 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 20 |
| Steelers | 7 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 27 |
Indianapolis is coming off an impressive 30-13 victory over Washington, but Pittsburgh has extra preparation time after playing Thursday. The Steelers also return home after a narrow divisional loss in Cleveland. This should be competitive early before Pittsburgh's defense helps create separation in the second half.
ATS pick: Steelers -2.5
Broncos vs Chargers AI prediction
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 7 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 30 |
| Chargers | 3 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 16 |
Denver wasn't able to solve San Francisco, but the Chargers remain winless and have continued to struggle sustaining offense. Los Angeles has now scored 16, 14, and 23 points over its last three games. Denver should control field position and pull away if it avoids giving the Chargers short fields.
ATS pick: Broncos -3.5
Lions vs Cardinals AI prediction
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lions | 10 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 34 |
| Cardinals | 3 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 20 |
Detroit's loss to Carolina was one of Sunday's bigger surprises, but this remains an offense with the personnel to score in bunches. Arizona just surrendered 36 points to the Giants and has lost three consecutive games. The Lions are well positioned for a decisive bounce-back performance.
ATS pick: Lions -4.5
49ers vs Seahawks AI prediction
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers | 7 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 27 |
| Seahawks | 7 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 24 |
This is one matchup where a close score makes sense. San Francisco remains unbeaten, while Seattle has won three of four and is favored at home. Both teams have been strong defensively, and there isn't enough between them to project a comfortable win either way. Getting points with San Francisco is attractive.
ATS pick: 49ers +2.5
Ravens vs Falcons AI prediction
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens | 7 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 27 |
| Falcons | 3 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 20 |
Lamar Jackson's ankle is the key variable after he exited Baltimore's victory over Tennessee and was later described as day-to-day. Assuming Jackson is available, the Ravens still have a significant offensive advantage and should be capable of winning by more than a field goal.
ATS pick: Ravens +3.5
Bills vs Rams AI prediction
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | 7 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 31 |
| Rams | 7 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 24 |
Buffalo suffered its first defeat Sunday against New England, while the Rams went into Philadelphia and earned a quality road victory. Los Angeles should keep this competitive at home, but Buffalo's offensive ceiling remains higher. The Bills are projected to respond with a stronger second-half performance.
ATS pick: Bills +2.5
More NFL picks for Week 5
For more analysis ahead of Week 5, check out SBR's NFL picks, the latest NFL odds, NFL MVP odds, and the complete 2026 NFL schedule.
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