Marvin Harrison Jr. Rookie of the Year Odds Soar Alongside Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels After Week 2

Marvin Harrison Jr. didn't get off the ground in his Arizona Cardinals debut, with his Week 1 performance against the Buffalo Bills resembling a flightless dodo. 

He didn't wait long to prove his wings aren't for show, soaring to the top of the Offensive Rookie of the Year odds (OROY) leaderboard on the back of a two-touchdown, 130-yard explosion in the first quarter of Sunday's 41-10 win over the Los Angeles Rams. 

Maybe his one-reception, four-yard debut in Buffalo was due to first-game jitters. I highly doubt that, though.

Most likely, his first-game flop was because of the pass-the-buck attitude from quarterback Kyler Murray, who said after the game getting the ball to his highly touted rookie receiver wasn't his job.

Sounds like a case of he doth protest too much.

After targeting Harrison five times in the opening 15 minutes against the Rams - including on his first toss - I'm sure Murray would agree.

While Harrison's standout performance reinforced what most people already knew about his explosiveness, is it enough to jump aboard his OROY train?

Marvin Harrison Jr. Rookie of the Year Odds

NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds from our best NFL betting sites | 🔥 = best odds | ❄️ = worst odds

Before Week 2 started, Harrison was the third-biggest favorite at our best sportsbooks, trading just ahead of Xavier Worthy. His +800 odds at DraftKings implied a win probability of 11.11%.

In the hours after his sensational Week 2 home debut, his OROY odds flew to the top of the leaderboard at BetMGM - jumping over Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels, the one-two favorites since the start of training camp. 

Should you back Harrison to win OROY?

Quarterbacks won three of the last five OROY awards - C.J. Stroud, Justin Herbert, and Murray - with the other two won by wide receivers (Garrett Wilson and Ja'Marr Chase). Looking back at the last 10 winners, only one additional wide receiver (Odell Beckham Jr.) joins the list.

So, while there is precedent for a wide receiver to take the plaudits as the top offensive rookie, quarterbacks (40%) have a higher success rate over the last decade compared to receivers (30%).

Obviously, that should not dissuade you from locking Harrison in as your OROY pick, but do his current odds offer enough value? 

Bet now or wait on MHJ in OROY market?

The OROY market can fluctuate considerably, with Week 2 being a perfect example of the potential volatility. 

Harrison's odds remained stable throughout training camp despite participating in just three pre-season snaps. His odds didn't waver after his dismal Week 1 showing, either, showcasing the confidence our best sports betting apps and the betting public have in his game-breaking ability.

He is, after all, widely recognized as the most NFL-ready individual of the 2024 rookie class.

Cue his outstanding Week 2, which saw his odds at BetMGM shorten to +250 with an implied win probability of 28.57% - almost three times higher than his post-Week 1 percentage. 

Comparing Harrison's OROY odds to Williams, Daniels

Compare Harrison's trajectory to Williams, who endured a woeful opener at home against the Tennessee Titans in which he was 14-for-29 and mustered just 93 passing yards.

That was good for a 49.1 offensive rating, according to PFF. His Week 2 performance in Houston was even worse, yielding an overall rating of just 44.3.

Even the No. 1 pick's odds aren't immune from such rancid stinkers. At DraftKings, his odds lengthened from +120 on Sept. 4 to +350 on Sept. 16.   

Meanwhile, Daniels was graded 50.7 and 64.7 in his first two outings and saw his odds improve after Sunday, shortening from +450 on Sept. 4 to +250 on Sept. 16. 

No matter how highly regarded or how much is expected of top draft picks, nobody truly knows how they will adapt to life in the NFL. Some elite college players take longer to reach their potential in the NFL, while others never live up to the hype. 

Rookies are, at least at the NFL level, unknown commodities, which is one of the primary reasons the OROY market is the most exciting to enter. 

That said, there's noticeably more confidence in the front-runners, especially quarterbacks like Williams.

Despite a pair of duds to open his professional career, he is among the three OPOY favorites. And unless his performances get continually worse, that's precisely where he'll stay. 

Harrison's odds more prone to larger movements  

There's far more volatility where Harrison's odds are concerned. If he replicates his woeful Week 1 outing in Week 3, expect his odds to lengthen considerably, probably returning to where they were before Week 2. 

Unless he enjoys another performance reminiscent of that hair-raising first quarter against the Rams, his odds won't shorten much.

So you might want to wait and see how he performs in the next few weeks against the Detroit Lions (21st-ranked pass coverage), Washington Commanders (32nd), and San Francisco 49ers (3rd) before locking in Harrison as your OROY pick. 

And if his odds lengthen to +500 again, jump on it like Harrison pounced on the Rams' defense. 

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