Jaguars vs. Commanders Week 1 NFL Picks: Washington a Fading Favorite Against Retooled Jacksonville
The rebranded Washington Commanders make their debut on Sunday afternoon when they host the Jacksonville Jaguars in NFL Week 1 action. Here’s a look at all the odds and trends ahead of this matchup, along with our Jaguars-Commanders picks.
Washington quarterback Carson Wentz has plenty to prove after the Jaguars embarrassed him in a season-ending 26-11 loss in Jacksonville as a member of the Indianapolis Colts last season. That defeat bounced the Colts from the playoff picture and sealed Wentz’s fate after just one season in the Hoosier State.
The Jaguars return to action looking for answers after finishing last in the NFL standings in 2021. They open the 2022 campaign off of an 0-4 preseason.
Here are our top Jaguars-Commanders NFL picks for Week 1 (odds via PointsBet and FanDuel Sportsbook).
Jaguars vs. Commanders Game Info
Date: Sunday, Sept. 11, 1 p.m. ET
TV: FOX
Location: FedExField, Landover, MD
Weather: Rain, 75 degrees, 100% chance of precipitation, 4-mph winds
Jaguars vs. Commanders Odds Analysis
The Commanders have lost ground since opening as betting favorites by as many as 4.5 points. They've dipped to 2.5-point favorites at most of our top-rated sportsbooks. FanDuel offers Jaguars bettos the best value, pegging Jacksonville with -105 odds to cover.
Washington has also faded dramatically in moneyline betting. Sporting odds were as short as -210 via PointsBet as recently as early August. The Commanders now sit as more lucrative -135 favorites at DraftKings. NFL betting fans expecting a Jaguars upset can find Jacksonville still listed at +120 at FanDuel.
The total has remained stable since opening between 43 and 44, with most sportsbooks still listing the number at 44. However, Over bettors can still find the total pegged at 43.5 at both FanDuel and BetMGM.
Jaguars vs. Commanders Picks
Jaguars vs. Commanders ATS Pick
Jaguars +2.5 (-105) ★★★★
After finishing dead last in the NFL last season, the Jaguars bolstered their defense by adding rookie linebackers Travon Walker and Devin Lloyd. The team also acquired free-agent defensive ends Arden Key and Foley Fatukasi as well as linebacker Foye Oluokun. Thanks to these acquisitions, the Jags now enjoy a formidable D-line that will give the immobile Carson Wentz fits, particularly if it rains.
With this contest likely to develop into a ground war amid inclement weather, big days could be in store for Jaguars running backs Travis Etienne Jr. and James Robinson. Indeed, defense remains an overall concern for the Commanders, who gave up points on every march into their red zone during the preseason.
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Jaguars vs. Commanders O/U Pick
Under 40.5 (-110) ★★★★
With this matchup featuring a Commanders quarterback settling into his new surroungins and a Jaguars QB adjusting to a rebuilt receiving corps, facing off on what is expected to be a rain-soaked field, there’s considerable value to the total cashing the Under.
Jaguars vs. Commanders Prop Pick
Etienne Over 72.5 rushing + receiving yards (-110) ★★★
Etienne will be a big beneficiary of stormy conditions. Sidelined by an injury for his entire rookie season, Etienne will be champing at the bit to make a huge first impression.
Considering he'll be reunited with Jags quarterback Trevor Lawrence, his QB at Clemson, where he piled up 588 receiving yards in 2020, expect the former college teammates to connect with regularity on Sunday.
Where to Bet on Jaguars vs. Commanders Picks
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Jaguars-Commanders picks made 09/08/2022 at 5:14 p.m. ET
