Dolphins vs. Bears Picks, Predictions Week 9: Will Tua Stay Unbeaten as a Starter?
The Miami Dolphins have taken two straight games, and they'll look to stay in the AFC playoff race when playing their second consecutive road game against an NFC North opponent, the Chicago Bears. Read on for our Dolphins-Bears picks.
The Dolphins enter this game at 5-3 but are likely wondering what could have been if quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was not forced to miss any action with head and neck injuries. Miami is 5-0 when Tagovailoa starts and finishes a game this season and is one of six teams in the conference with at least five victories.
Meanwhile, Chicago enters this game with a 3-5 record but is looking to improve over .500 outside of its division after losing its first two games against NFC North opponents this year.
Here are our Dolphins-Bears NFL picks for Week 9 (odds via BetMGM, PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our NFL best bets and all of our top picks for Week 9!
Dolphins vs. Bears Game Info
Date: Sunday, Nov. 6, 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Location: Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
Weather: 63 degrees, 9% chance of precipitation, 15-mph SSW wind
Dolphins vs. Bears Odds
Dolphins vs. Bears Odds Analysis
This line opened at Miami -4.5, and has since been bet up as high as -5.5 at BetMGM. Miami has received 64% of the cash and 77% of the tickets.
The total has held firm at 45.5 all week, despite the Over being heavily backed. That side is getting 66% of the cash and 81% of the tickets.
Dolphins vs. Bears Picks
- Spread: Bears +5.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
- Over/Under: Over 45.5 (-107 via PointsBet)
- Player prop: Justin Fields anytime touchdown scorer (+170 via DraftKings)
Dolphins vs. Bears ATS Pick
Bears +5.5 (-110) ★★★★
The Dolphins are one of two five-win teams (the Tennessee Titans are the other) with a negative point differential. Granted, their three losses by a combined 43 points were all when Tagovailoa did not play or did not complete the game. However, four of Miami’s five wins are by six or fewer points, even with a healthy quarterback. In addition, the Dolphins are a much different team on the road compared to at home, when they have the advantage of being used to the heat and humidity in South Florida.
Since a 12-7 home loss to the Washington Commanders, the Bears have found new and creative ways to get the most out of quarterback Justin Fields’ skill set. From a fantasy football standpoint, his points output has increased in five consecutive games, and more designed runs for him have opened up things in the passing game. The Bears have had three straight games with 200-plus rushing yards for the first time since 1968, and that is an excellent formula for keeping a high-powered Dolphins passing attack (third in the NFL with 292.5 passing yards per game) off the field.
Had this line stayed at +4.5, we would not have been as tempted to back the Bears. However, we can't pass up the +5.5 points that only BetMGM is offering.
Dolphins vs. Bears O/U Pick
Over 45.5 (-107) ★★★
Chicago traded away two of its best three defenders, Roquan Smith and Robert Quinn, with Smith currently leading the league in tackles (83). He is also one of two players with 500 tackles and 15 sacks over the last five seasons.
Miami’s defense was bolstered with the acquisition of Bradley Chubb, whose 27% pass-rush win rate is the third-highest among edge rushers this season. However, the Dolphins still allowed 27 first-half points to Detroit last week, which was the Lions’ first time in 135 games they had scored that much in a first half. Chubb will help in the long run, but not instantly against a Bears offense that has scored 62 points over the last two weeks.
Dolphins vs. Bears Prop Pick
Fields anytime touchdown scorer (+170) ★★
Fields has been a nightmare for opposing defenses lately, with 60-plus rushing yards in three consecutive games. Over the last three weeks, he has had 34 rushing attempts, with 17 being designed runs.
Fields has a red-zone rushing attempt in back-to-back weeks, and we like him to make it three straight, especially with the threat of the newly acquired receiver Chase Claypool on the outside to take defensive attention away.
Where to Bet on Dolphins vs. Bears Picks
Dolphins-Bears picks made 11/3/2022 at 5:49 a.m. ET
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