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Cowboys vs. Titans Odds, Picks, Predictions Week 17: Is Tennessee Vulnerable on Thursday Night Football?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: December 29, 2022 10:56 AM EST • 2 min 52 sec read.

Micah Parsons of the Dallas Cowboys celebrates after sacking Trevor Lawrence of the Jacksonville Jaguars during the first quarter of the game at TIAA Bank Field on December 18, 2022 in Jacksonville, Florida.
Micah Parsons of the Dallas Cowboys celebrates after sacking Trevor Lawrence of the Jacksonville Jaguars during the first quarter of the game at TIAA Bank Field on December 18, 2022 in Jacksonville, Florida. Photo by Mike Carlson/Getty Images via AFP.

A reserve-filled Tennessee Titans team welcomes the Dallas Cowboys to Music City for the 2022 season's final edition of Thursday Night Football. We break down the best NFL odds and offer our top Cowboys-Titans NFL picks.

With Dallas’s 40-34 victory over the rival Philadelphia Eagles last week, the Cowboys kept themselves alive for the NFC East title. However, Dallas would be the No. 5 seed in the NFC playoffs unless it wins its final two games and the Eagles lose their last two.

Tennessee’s five-game losing skid is its longest since 2015-16 and the first in the Mike Vrabel era. The Titans are expected to start journeyman backup Josh Dobbs under center in Week 17.

Tennessee does not have much to play for this week, as the winner of next week’s Titans-Jaguars matchup wins the AFC South, regardless of this week’s outcomes. As such, the Titans are also expected to rest running back Derrick Henry.

Here is our best Cowboys vs. Titans NFL pick for Week 17 (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our Thursday Night Football Prop Picks, Cowboys vs. Titans Player Prop Picks, and Cowboys-Titans SGP Picks.

Cowboys vs. Titans Game Info

Date: Thursday, Dec. 29, 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: Prime Video
Location: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN
Weather: 58 degrees, 12% chance of precipitation, 14-mph S winds

Cowboys vs. Titans Odds

Cowboys vs. Titans Odds Analysis

The Cowboys were consensus 3-point favorites on last week's look-ahead line and that has moved to -12.5 as of Thursday morning. However, while 74% of the tickets are backing Dallas, only 54% of the cash rides with the Cowboys.

Likely also impacted by the expectation Henry sits out Thursday's game, the consensus Over/Under line of 44.5 has dropped to 39.5 on the morning of game day. Still, 71% of the tickets account for 72% of the handle on the Over, according to Pregame.com.

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Cowboys vs. Titans Pick

Under 42 ⭐⭐⭐

As Ian Rapoport of the NFL Network pointed out on Twitter, the Titans were in a similar situation to this week in 2019, when they played in a game that had no impact on the standings. In that game, the team rested star running back Derrick Henry. Will Tennessee do the same this week?

One thing for certain is that even if Henry does suit up, the Titans' offense has been abysmal, entering last week ranked 26th in points per game (28.2), 22nd in yards per play (5.2), and 24th in third-down percentage (26%). Meanwhile, the Cowboys scored 40 or more points in four of their last eight games and hung 40 on an Eagles defense that had allowed 22 or more points in only three games this season.

Cowboys QB Dak Prescott is coming off a 15-for-15 performance against the Eagles’ zone defense, the best by any quarterback in a game this season. However, Tennessee plays man coverage at a top-11 rate, per Pro Football Focus. In addition, Cowboys linebacker Micah Parsons’ 44% pass rush win rate was the highest in the NFL in Week 16, and he created a career-high five incompletions with pass rush wins, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Given the short week and the chance the Titans rest some key players, the Under is the right play.

Cowboys vs. Titans Best Odds

DraftKings (-110)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsPointsBet
4241.541.54242
Over -110, Under -110Over -110, Under -110Over -110, Under -110Over -110, Under -110Over -110, Under -110

With the point spread getting to double digits at most sportsbooks, we felt the value was gone in backing the Cowboys, who were outscored 63-61 by the Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars in the two weeks leading up to their big victory over the Eagles. Under backers have their choice of DraftKings, Caesars, or PointsBet, who all offer slightly better value than their competitors, with their totals a half-point higher.

Cowboys-Titans pick made 12/27/2022 at 6:39 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Mike Spector
I have been in the sports writing industry for over three years, working for sites like BettingPros/FantasyPros, Oddschecker, and Sportsbook Review. In my first year writing for BettingPros, I finished with the #2 overall record in their annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an over/under and moneyline perspective. I am an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, and all college sports. In my opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and I am especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. I am a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." Follow me on Twitter for my best bets and commentary to go along with the wagers.