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Broncos vs. Seahawks Picks, Predictions NFL Week 1: Seattle Tames Wilson on His Return

Get our best Broncos vs. Seahawks picks and predictions for their Week 1 matchup on Monday Night Football.
Mike Spector
Mike Spector

Last Updated: September 11, 2024 2:42 PM EDT • 4 minute read

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The schedule makers gave us a gift in Week 1, as Russell Wilson returns to Seattle for the first time as a visitor with the Denver Broncos taking on the Seattle Seahawks. We're breaking down the betting angles with our Broncos-Seahawks picks for Monday Night Football.

Wilson accumulated a 113-60-1 record (including playoffs) in his 10 seasons as Seahawks quarterback, so this will be an emotionally filled game right out of the gate. Wilson follows Joe Flacco as the only two quarterbacks facing their former team this week with whom they won a Super Bowl. The Seahawks would love nothing better than to spoil Wilson's return and to earn a victory in their first opportunity to improve upon their 7-10 record last season, which was the team's first losing season since 2011.

Here are our Broncos-Seahawks NFL picks for Week 1 (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, PointsBet, and BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Broncos vs. Seahawks Game Info

Date: Monday, Sept. 12, 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN/ABC
Location: Lumen Field, Seattle, WA
Weather: 76 degrees, 18% chance of precipitation, 6-mph SSW wind

Broncos vs. Seahawks Odds Analysis

Denver's point spread has risen two points from an opening number of -4.5 to -6.5. The Broncos were one of the most popular favorites of the week, attracting 91% of the bets and 94% of the handle on the spread.

The movement on the total has been similar to the point spread, increasing from 41.5 to 44.5 or 45. But it has since settled at 41. The largest wagers have backed the Over, with 67% of the tickets and 91% of the cash.

Broncos vs. Seahawks Picks

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Broncos vs. Seahawks ATS Pick

Seahawks +6.5 (-107) ★★

Since Peyton Manning retired in 2015, Denver has struggled through a rotation of starting quarterbacks that included names like Paxton Lynch and Brock Osweiler. That makes Wilson's signing so important, as his 104 regular-season wins are the second-most by a quarterback through the first 10 seasons of a career. In addition, his 292 touchdown passes are the second-most all-time in that span, behind Peyton Manning's 306.

We never like to side with the public when the overwhelming majority is on one side, as it is not typically profitable to do so over the long haul. Ideally, we would love this spread to get to the key number of 7, which it very well may if Denver continues to receive more than 90% of the handle through Sunday's games. Seattle has an avenue to cover if Wilson struggles with timing with a new wide receiver corps, or to pick up head coach Nathaniel Hackett's new offensive scheme.

The Broncos have lost each of their last five Monday night games, and while Seattle may not win outright, we like the contrarian nature of this play.

Check out the latest comprehensive and most trusted Sportsbook Reviews by SBR.  

Broncos vs. Seahawks O/U Pick

Under 44.5 (-110) ★★★★

If Seattle covers this spread, it will likely not come as part of a shootout, as its offensive potential is limited with Geno Smith under center. In addition, there is no guarantee Denver's receiving corps steps up just because Wilson is in town. The Broncos' wide receiver group had just eight receiving touchdowns in 2021, which was fewer than 11 individual wide receivers.

Wilson made a living early in his career outside of the pocket. However, in 2021, he attempted 1.9 scrambles per game, earned 12.6 yards per game on scrambles, and had 10 first downs, all career lows. Was that a product of a poor Seahawks offense, or Father Time catching up with him? Either way, we are much more confident in this game being low-scoring than Seattle being competitive.

Broncos vs. Seahawks Prop Pick

Hamler anytime TD scorer (+340) ★★

Much of the betting attention will surround Broncos wide receivers Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy. However, the player set up for the most success could be K.J. Hamler in the slot, as he will face coverage from Seattle's Justin Coleman.

Coleman ranked outside the top-90 cornerbacks in coverage last year, and Wilson loves targeting the slot after many hook-ups with Tyler Lockett in recent seasons. Hamler has three touchdowns in 16 career games (six starts) but is set up for a breakout year in year three, with a future Hall of Famer throwing him the ball.

Where to Bet on Broncos vs. Seahawks Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Broncos-Seahawks picks made 9/11/2022 at 7:17 a.m. ET

Written by:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike leans on his NFL experience and always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”