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Bengals vs. Ravens Picks, Predictions NFL Week 5: Another Shootout Between Division Rivals?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: October 8, 2022 11:40 AM EDT • 2 min 31 sec read.

Quarterback Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens carries the ball against the New England Patriots, and we offer new U.S. bettors our exclusive bet365 bonus code for NFL Week 3.
Quarterback Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens carries the ball against the New England Patriots. Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images via AFP.

The Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens are two of three teams in a 2-2 logjam in the AFC North standings. We're breaking down the betting with our Bengals-Ravens picks.

Baltimore dropped to 1-2 in games where it had a 17-point lead this season. The Ravens' home loss to the Buffalo Bills was its fifth straight, the longest home losing streak in franchise history. Baltimore is also now 0-2 at home for the first time since 2015.

Meanwhile, the Bengals have won back-to-back matchups by double digits after starting 0-2. Cincinnati scored 41 points in each of two meetings against the Ravens last season, winning both by a combined 82-38.

Here are our Bengals-Ravens Week 5 picks (odds via CaesarsSportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Bengals vs. Ravens Game Info

  • Date: Sunday, Oct. 9, 8:20 p.m. ET
  • TV: NBC
  • Location: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
  • Weather: 66 degrees, 4% chance of precipitation, 9-mph WSW wind

Bengals vs. Ravens Odds

Bengals vs. Ravens Odds Analysis

This line held firm at Ravens -3, but has now moved to -3.5. The Ravens have been the more popular side, attracting 69% of the tickets and 81% of the cash.

The total has come down from an opening line of 48.5 to as low as 47.5. The largest early wagers have backed the Under, with that side attracting 29% of the bets and 39% of the cash.

Bengals vs. Ravens Picks

  • Spread: Ravens -3.5 (-105 via Caesars) ★★
  • Over/Under: Over 47.5 (-110 via FanDuel) ★★★★
  • Player Prop: Joe Burrow Over 274.5 passing yards (-120 via DraftKings) ★★★

Bengals vs. Ravens ATS Pick

Ravens -3.5 (-105) ★★

Last week's Ravens-Bills matchup felt like two separate games in one. Baltimore scored on each of its first four possessions (two touchdowns, two field goals) but was promptly shut out over the final 30 minutes.

Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson threw interceptions on the final two drives, and Buffalo stymied Baltimore with a completely different second half game plan. The Bills blitzed 10% of the time in the first half compared to 22% in the second. Buffalo also disguised coverage 35% of the time in the first half and 44% in the second.

Jackson's numbers through the first three quarters of games are still too good to ignore, and it's only a matter of time before he settles fourth-quarter issues. Jackson has an 85 QBR, 13 TDs, and one turnover through the first three quarters of matchups this year. All those numbers rank in the NFL's top two. However, those fourth quarter stats plummet to a 24 QBR, one TD, and four turnovers. 

The Ravens have trailed for 14 seconds in their two losses, but some positive regression is coming this week. Look for them to finish this game stronger than they have to this point.

Bengals vs. Ravens O/U Pick

Over 47.5 (-110) ★★★★

In two matchups against Baltimore last year, Bengals QB Joe Burrow threw for a combined 941 yards with a 7-1 TD-INT ratio. Furthermore, his 525 yards in Cincinnati's Week 16 victory were the fourth-most in a game in NFL history. 

Burrow has been sacked 16 times (the NFL's third-most), but that's less of an issue against Baltimore's pass rush that has pressured quarterbacks on 26% of dropbacks this season (24th). On the other side, Jackson threw two interceptions against man coverage for the first time in his career last week but had a 7-0 TD-INT ratio through the first three weeks against man coverage. 

The Ravens should lean more on a running strategy that averaged 142 rushing yards per game (8th) and 5.4 yards per rush (3rd), pushing this contest over the projected total.

Bengals vs. Ravens Prop Pick

Burrow Over 274.5 passing yards (-120) ★★★

When blitzing, the Ravens allow 9.4 yards per attempt (29th), have allowed five 20+ yard completions (t-25th), and a 65% completion percentage (22nd). They've also given up a league-worst 315 passing yards per game, so there's no reason Burrow won't have similar success as he did last year against Baltimore.

Where to Bet on Bengals vs. Ravens Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

Bengals-Ravens picks made 10/8/2022 at 6:15 a.m. ET

Written By:
Mike Spector
I have been in the sports writing industry for over three years, working for sites like BettingPros/FantasyPros, Oddschecker, and Sportsbook Review. In my first year writing for BettingPros, I finished with the #2 overall record in their annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an over/under and moneyline perspective. I am an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, and all college sports. In my opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and I am especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. I am a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." Follow me on Twitter for my best bets and commentary to go along with the wagers.