Best Against the Spread Picks, Predictions Week 13: Texans Could Spoil Watson’s Return
All eyes this week are on quarterback Deshaun Watson as he makes his Cleveland Browns debut against the Houston Texans, his former team. Who will cover the spread? Find out in our favorite NFL Week 13 ATS picks.
Neither the Browns nor Texans are headed to the playoffs, but Sunday’s matchup might be the most anticipated game on the Week 13 schedule. Watson returns from an 11-game suspension to make his Browns debut against Houston, where he played four seasons before requesting a trade.
Will Watson lead Cleveland to a comfortable victory or can the Texans spoil the party? We break down that matchup and two others in our best against the spread Week 13 NFL picks (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook and PointsBet).
Week 13 NFL Against The Spread Picks
- Houston Texans +7 (-106 via DraftKings)
- New York Giants +2.5 (-110 via FanDuel)
- New Orleans Saints +4 (-107 via PointsBet)
Best Against The Spread Week 13 NFL Picks
Texans +7 (-106)
A popular narrative is how badly Watson wants revenge against the Texans, the team that drafted him before trading him to Cleveland last summer. But let’s not forget Watson wanted out, requesting a trade after the 2020 season, so his former teammates should have plenty of motivation, too.
The bigger reason to back the Texans is because the Browns shouldn’t lay a road touchdown against anybody — especially with a starting QB that hasn’t played a regular-season game in 23 months. Prior to last week’s 23-17 overtime win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Cleveland converted a 4th and 10 in the last seconds), the Browns lost six of their last seven. They’re also 2-8 ATS as road favorites over the past three seasons, falling in six of those matchups straight up.
As bad as the 1-9-1 Texans are, they’ve played teams tough, covering the spread versus the Philadelphia Eagles and losing by just seven to the Tennessee Titans. Houston also continues to play hard until the final whistle, nearly covering last week against the Miami Dolphins despite trailing 30-0 at halftime. There's potential for a backdoor cover against a Cleveland defense that allowed at least 30 points in four of its last seven games.
Giants +2.5 (-110)
I didn’t buy into the Giants as legitimate Super Bowl contenders when they started 6-1, but I also don’t think they should be home underdogs after losing three of their past four contests. Two of the three losses came on the road to likely playoff teams the Dallas Cowboys and Seattle Seahawks. The Giants were also without several key starters on both sides of the ball due to injuries.
New York should get at least four starters back, including a couple offensive linemen. The Giants have the added advantage of a few extra days to prepare after playing on Thanksgiving. They’re also 4-2 this season at home, where they’ve allowed less than 20 points per game.
The Washington Commanders are red-hot, winning six of seven after a 1-4 start to pull within a half-game of the G-Men in the tough NFC East. However, while they deserve credit for turning their season around, it’s also come against soft opposition — five of those six wins came over the Falcons, Texans, Colts, Packers and Bears. Expect things to be a lot tougher for Washington against the desperate Giants, and for New York to move to 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings between division rivals.
Saints +4 (-107)
Just when the Buccaneers looked like they might be turning things around, winning two straight to get back to .500 and reclaim NFC South's lead, they stubbed their toe with a 23-17 loss to Cleveland. QB Tom Brady and Tampa's offense continue to struggle to put up points, getting less than 20 for the fourth time in their last six matchups.
Even when Brady and the Bucs are on top of their game, New Orleans’ pass rush has given them major issues. The Saints blanked Tampa 9-0 when these teams met last year, and held the Bucs to just three points the previous year. The Saints' D was also excellent against the San Francisco 49ers, holding the powerful 49ers' run game to just 96 yards on 29 carries.
We’ve already seen a big line move towards New Orleans after the Bucs opened as 6-point favorites, but there's value backing the underdog Saints at anything over a field goal. New Orleans +4 was widely available at the time of writing, but you could save yourself a few cents of juice by betting the Saints at PointsBet.
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NFL ATS picks made on 11/30/22 at 11:13 a.m. ET
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