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Giannis Antetokounmpo of the Milwaukee Bucks takes the court prior to a game against the New Orleans Pelicans at Fiserv Forum as we look at our Nuggets-Bucks NBA player prop picks.
Giannis Antetokounmpo of the Milwaukee Bucks takes the court prior to a game against the New Orleans Pelicans at Fiserv Forum. Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images/AFP.

We’re offering our favorite Nuggets vs. Bucks NBA player props based on the best NBA odds with Milwaukee still trying to get right in the Doc Rivers era.

It’s been a tough start to Doc Rivers' tenure with the Milwaukee Bucks, who have lost five of seven games since making a midseason coaching change. They'll try to get right on Monday when the defending NBA champion Denver Nuggets come to Fiserv Forum on a busy day for the NBA.

While Milwaukee remains third in the East, Rivers' team has looked disjointed since he took over for departed coach Adrian Griffin. Now the Bucks have to outlast the Nuggets, who own an 8-3 record in their last 11 games and own the second-shortest NBA Finals odds.

A big reason for the team's success, as always, is Nikola Jokic, who is the clear favorite by our NBA MVP odds to win the award for a third time. This year's group sits fourth in the West and could gain ground in that race against a Bucks team that may not be at full strength.

Entering Monday, both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard are listed as game-time decisions, while Khris Middleton is expected to miss at least two more games due to an ankle injury. Needing to deal with Jokic while potentially missing his top three scorers is going to be nearly impossible for Rivers to overcome.

To accompany our NBA best bets for Monday, here are our best Nuggets vs. Bucks NBA player props and NBA picks (odds via our best NBA betting sites; Pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Nuggets vs. Bucks NBA player props: Monday

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Nuggets vs. Bucks props

Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 49.5 points, assists, and rebounds (-108 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

If Antetokounmpo suits up, he'll struggle against this Nuggets defense. Denver is sixth in the NBA in points allowed at 111 per game and has been one of the best clubs at slowing down power forwards.

Opposing power forwards are averaging just 22 points per game against Denver in 2023-24, the sixth-fewest in the league. They’ve also chipped in 10 rebounds (12th fewest), and 4.1 assists (11th fewest). For Antetokounmpo to overcome that average of 36.1 combined points, assists, and rebounds allowed to opposing teams' power forwards, he’ll need to play better than the eight-time All-Star has recently.

The Greek Freak is averaging 48.2 points, assists, and rebounds per game in 2023-24. But that's fallen to just 16 points, 8.5 rebounds, and five assists over his last two games. Antetokounmpo is averaging 44.2 combined points, assists, and rebounds per contest in the nine games since Adrian Griffin was fired. Being without Khris Middleton and potentially Damian Lillard won't help his cause either.

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Jamal Murray Over 34.5 points, assists, and rebounds (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

The big reason Griffin was fired in Milwaukee was the Bucks' lackluster defense. And that remains an issue. The Bucks are allowing 119.3 points per game, the eighth most in the NBA, and guards have been the main source of the defensive woes. 

Poor guard defense has allowed opposing point guards to average the fourth most points in the NBA. Point guards are putting up 26.8 points per outing against Milwaukee, and only the Detroit Pistons, San Antonio Spurs, and Brooklyn Nets are giving up more. The Bucks have also permitted point guards to average 6.4 rebounds and 8.7 assists per game.

That gives Jamal Murray a favorable matchup against this defense, and he’s returned to his pre-injury form this season. The Canadian is averaging 20.9 points per game, 6.6 assists, and four rebounds while shooting a career-high 41.2% from three. He’s been particularly impressive over his last 24 games while averaging 22.5 points per game, 7.2 assists, and 4.4 rebounds. He's produced at least 35 points, assists, and rebounds 12 times over that span.

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Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Over 1.5 assists (+100 via bet365, BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

It’s no guarantee Kentavious Caldwell-Pope will take the court Monday night, as he’s questionable with a hamstring injury. But if he does, Caldwell-Pope can add to the Milwaukee Bucks' issues with defending backcourts. KCP isn’t a dominant player who’s going to light up the scoreboard, but he does play a lot of minutes (32.4 per game this season) and sees the ball enough to create plays.

The former eighth overall pick is averaging 2.3 assists per game in 2023-24 and has notched at least two assists in four of his last five contests. Caldwell-Pope has registered two-plus assists in 33 of 49 games this season.

This Milwaukee defense has struggled with guards all campaign, and shooting guards are averaging 5.1 assists per game against the Bucks. There will be plenty of opportunity to pick up assists with the Bucks inability to slow guards like Jamal Murray, and with Nikola Jokic being an unstoppable force offensively.

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