Top Expert NBA Prop Picks for Monday

The Denver Nuggets will be without Michael Porter Jr. on Monday night against the Miami Heat, which means star and reigning MVP Nikola Jokic will be carrying an even bigger load offensively. Let’s cash in on that.

Here are my top prop picks for Monday’s eight-game NBA schedule (odds via DraftKings).

Monday's Prop Picks

Nikola Jokic Over 24.5 points (-105), and -450 for double-doubleJaVale McGee Over 17.5 points, rebounds, and assists (-105); Over 0.5 blocks (-175)Seth Curry Over 15.5 points (-105)

Top Prop Picks

Jokic Over 24.5 Points (-105), and -450 for double-double

Expect a defensive battle between Jokic’s Nuggets and the Heat on Monday, as Denver ranks No. 1 in the NBA in scoring defense (98.8 points per game) and the Heat are second (100.2 points per game). Jokic is the focal point of Denver's offense regardless, but especially so tonight because Michael Porter Jr. — the team’s second-best player—won't play due to lower-back troubles.

Porter left Saturday’s win over Houston early, and Jokic finished with 28 points and 14 rebounds. The 26-year-old took 15 shots, and I expect that number to reach 20 on Monday.

I’m also not limiting my double-double possibility to just points and rebounds, as Jokic is very capable of double-digit assists, too. Last year, he averaged 19 points, 10.5 rebounds, and seven assists in two wins over Miami.

McGee Over 17.5 points, rebounds, and assists (-105); Over 0.5 blocks (-175)

McGee and the Suns are in Sacramento tonight, and the veteran should start again with the team's usual starting center Deandre Ayton out due to a lower-leg injury. The Kings don’t have a ton of size to match up well with the 7-foot McGee. It’s also the second half of back-to-back games for Sacramento, so the Kings' legs might be heavy.

Whether McGee goes Over this number simply comes down to if he plays enough minutes, as head coach Monty Williams has been limiting him to only about 20 minutes per game with Ayton out. Ayton was healthy and played 34 minutes when the Suns lost 110-107 at home to Sacramento on Oct. 27, while McGee was only given 14 minutes, but he still posted 11 rebounds and seven assists. The Kings aren't a good rebounding team, as opponents are averaging 47.4 boards per game. It's easy to envision 12 boards and six points for McGee if he stays out of foul trouble, and maybe we get a token assist.

Meanwhile, McGee has recorded at least one block in three straight games, and he notched one in the first matchup against Sacramento.

Curry Over 15.5 points (-105)

Curry and the Philadelphia 76ers are hosting the New York Knicks, who are playing the second of back-to-back games. The Knicks were the NBA’s best defensive team last season, but they've sprung a leak lately while allowing 113-plus points in four of their past five contests. The Cavs hung 126 points on them Sunday at Madison Square Garden.

The Sixers remain without No. 2 scorer Tobias Harris and Matisse Thybulle, who are both in the COVID-19 protocols. Then there's 3-point shooter Danny Green, who has missed three straight matchups due to a hamstring injury and his status is in doubt for Monday.

Therefore, Curry should be the team's No. 2 scoring option behind Joel Embiid. The guard was held to 11 points on Saturday against Chicago, but he had notched 20-plus points in three straight prior to that. He's also averaging 17.1 points while shooting 60 percent from the field and 50 percent from deep.

The Knicks will focus their defense and double-teams on Embiid, leaving plenty of open 3-point attempts for Curry.

Picks made 11/8/2021 at 11:51 p.m. ET