Kings vs. Jazz NBA Picks: Sacramento Can Stay Within Single Digits

Salt Lake City is one of the toughest places to play in the NBA for visiting teams. We don't expect the Sacramento Kings to win at the Utah Jazz on Tuesday night, but can the Kings cover a double-digit number?

This is already the second of four regular-season meetings between the Kings and Jazz. On Oct. 22 in California's capital city, Utah covered the spread as a six-point favorite in a 110-101 victory. The Jazz led by just one entering the fourth quarter, but closed the game on a 15-6 run when the Kings tried to go with a small lineup.

Utah leads the all-time series 70-28 at home and has won the past four there. The teams played once at Vivint Arena last season and the Jazz prevailed 128-112. Sacramento has failed to cover in five straight meetings overall.

Here are my picks and predictions for Tuesday's NBA matchup between the Kings and Jazz (odds via DraftKings; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Kings vs. Jazz Game Info

Date/Time: Tuesday, November 2, 9 p.m. ETTV: NBA League PassLocation: Vivint Arena, Salt Lake City, UT

Kings vs. Jazz Odds Analysis

Utah opened as a 10-point favorite and it's doubtful that number gets under double digits unless a key Jazz player is ruled out. It is the front end of a back-to-back for Sacramento.

Utah is 8-2 straight up and 4-6 against the spread in its past 10 as at least a 10-point home favorite (1-0 SU and ATS this year). The Kings are 3-7 SU and 5-5 ATS in their past 10 as at least 10-point road dogs (first time this year). The total of 220 points has remained steady.

Kings vs. Jazz Betting Picks

Kings +10 (-110) ? ?Under 220 points (-110) ? ?

Kings vs. Jazz Predictions

Kings +10 (-110) ? ?

I don't give Sacramento much of a shot at winning this game, but the Kings are a solid 3-1 on the road both SU and ATS. They have quality wins in Portland and Phoenix (and New Orleans, but that's expected as the Pelicans remain without Zion Williamson). They have lost their two home games by a combined 21 points.

It remains shocking, and comical, that the Kings chose Duke forward Marvin Bagley III with the No. 2 overall pick in the 2018 draft instead of Luka Doncic. Bagley isn't even part of the rotation right now. How are the Kings supposed to get any trade value if he's not playing? Guard Buddy Hield also could be had - this team is so poorly run.

The young backcourt of De'Aaron Fox and Tyrese Haliburton has potential, although Haliburton has struggled (11.8 points per game) after a terrific rookie campaign.

Utah finished with the NBA's best regular-season record last year and could well do so again. The Jazz have only suffered defeat once, a 107-99 loss in Chicago on Saturday. They caught a major break Sunday in Milwaukee as the Bucks were without three injured starters and Utah won fairly easily 107-95 to conclude a three-game trip.

One reason I like the Kings to cover this big number: It's a one-game homestand for Utah as the team will go back out on the road for three starting Thursday in Atlanta. Players hate these one-game "homestands."

Sacramento is 6-1 ATS in its past seven on the road. Utah is 2-5 ATS in its past seven playing on one day of rest.

Under 220 points (-110) ? ?

The Under is 20-7-1 in the Kings' past 28 games and 5-1 in Utah's past six.

Jazz All-Star Donovan Mitchell has not been his usual self yet this season as his scoring is down to 23 points per game and he's shooting just 40.3 percent from the field (43.8 last season) and 31 percent from deep (38.6 last year).

A career 39.2-percent three-point shooter, Bojan Bogdanovic is only knocking down 30.3 percent this year.

Per usual, though, Utah is very good defensively and has held its past three opponents to an average of 38.7-percent shooting from the floor. Having three-time NBA Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert monitoring the paint and keeping guys from the rim obviously helps. The "Stifle Tower" was named Western Conference Player of the Week on Monday. Gobert is averaging 16.3 points and 17.2 rebounds per game for the season, numbers that easily surpass his career highs. He already has three games of attempting at least eight free throws. His free-throw percentage is up nearly 10 points.

Fox signed a massive contract extension this offseason and might be trying too hard to justify that money. Fox averaged a career-high 25.2 points per game on 47-percent shooting last season, but is down to 18.5 per contest on 37-percent shooting so far this year. Fox hurt his left shoulder in the first game versus the Jazz and said it isn't bothering him.

"I'm all right. I'm fine. I just haven't played well. That's all it is," he has said.

The one injury to note for Tuesday is to Utah reserve Rudy Gay, who is out with a heel injury. He has yet to play this season after averaging 11.4 ppg last year with the San Antonio Spurs.

Picks made 11/01/2021 at 5:10 p.m. ET