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Kyle Larson, driver of the Chevrolet, enters his car during qualifying for the NASCAR Cup Series Ambetter Health 400 as we look at our Pennzoil 400 odds and predictions.
Kyle Larson, driver of the Chevrolet, enters his car during qualifying for the NASCAR Cup Series Ambetter Health 400. Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images/AFP.

NASCAR returns to Sin City this weekend for the third race of the season, and our Pennzoil 400 picks are based on the best NASCAR odds for Las Vegas Motor Speedway from our best sports betting sites.

We follow up two straight NASCAR superspeedway races - which featured major crashes and close finishes - with a more standard 1.5-mile track in Las Vegas for Sunday's Pennzoil 400.

Due to this style of race being slightly more predictable, there's much less variance in the odds among the top 10 drivers. Additionally, betting strategies will revolve more around track histories and pedigree.

In last year's running, Hendrick Motorsports stood on all three steps of the podium. In the 2022 race, Alex Bowman and Kyle Larson finished first and second, respectively.

Here are our Pennzoil 400 picks for Sunday's race based on the NASCAR odds for Las Vegas Motor Speedway (odds via our best sports betting apps; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Pennzoil 400 picks

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Odds to win Pennzoil 400 2024

Pennzoil 400 odds as of March 3.

Kyle Larson+330 +350+360 🔥+330+350
William Byron+650+700+625+700 +600 ❄️
Joey Logano+700 +1000 🔥+700 +750+700
Christopher Bell+1000 +1000+1100 🔥+950+900 ❄️
Ryan Blaney+1100 🔥+1000+900 ❄️+1000 +1000
Martin Truex Jr.+1200 ❄️+1700 🔥+1500+1400+1400
Kyle Busch+1200 ❄️+1800+1800+1500 +1600
Bubba Wallace+1200+1300+1300+1200+1200
Tyler Reddick+1300+1200 +1300+1200+1000
Ross Chastain+1400 +1700+1700+1400+1400 

Pennzoil 400 field

This week, 37 drivers make up the field. Larson is the only driver with more than one win on this track over the last six races. Joey Logano and Denny Hamlin are the only two non-Hendrick Motorsports drivers to notch wins at Las Vegas during that span.

This is also the home track for Kyle Busch and Noah Gragson. Busch has recorded one win, 15 top-10 finishes, and 12 top-five finishes over 25 career starts in his hometown. Gragson has posted an average finish of 3.4 in his eight career Xfinity Series starts.

Pennzoil 400 expert predictions

Favorite: Kyle Larson (+450 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Larson boasts the third-best average finish (8.5) of all active drivers at this track over the last six races. He's collected two wins and two runner-up finishes over that span. He recorded the second-best average speed rating in both the spring and fall races in Las Vegas.

Additionally, he was one of the two fastest cars on the track in both Las Vegas races during 2023. His 175.8 mph green-flag speed during the fall event topped the charts over Christopher Bell. He was also second in green-flag speed to teammate William Byron during the fall.

Finally, history is on Larson's side. His team has won four of the last six races on this track, with the No. 5 car accounting for two of those victories.

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Long shot: Chase Elliott (+1800 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Chase Elliott is surprisingly the only Hendrick Motorsports driver of the four without a win on this track. His average finishing position of 19.2 is the worst on his team. On top of that, Elliott is averaging a 14.9-place finish over his last 29 races at intermediate tracks.

However, he's registered three top-5 results at Las Vegas in his Cup career, including one runner-up finish in fall 2021. Elliott has also led at least one lap in five of those starts. He's spent at least 80% of his time inside the top 15 during seven of his 13 appearances in Las Vegas. Also, his highest position on the track has been inside the top 3 in all but one race.

Our best sports betting sites are in disagreement on Elliott, with FanDuel giving the No. 9 car +800 to win this race. BetMGM is listing him at +1200, while Caesars has him at +1600. 

Prop: Winning car's number is Even (+120 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

An even number car has won three of the last four races on this track. Three Hendrick Motorsports drivers have claimed victory here in the last four races as well. Of those drivers, two drive an even-numbered car. 

Also included in this group are defending series champion Ryan Blaney in the No. 12, two-time Las Vegas winner Joey Logano in the No. 22, Kyle Busch in the No. 8, and fall runner-up Christopher Bell in the No. 20. 

This bet offers a chance to hedge on a Larson outright, and still enough value on a standalone wager.

Previous Pennzoil 400 winners

2023William Byron
2022Alex Bowman
2021Kyle Larson
2020Joey Logano
2019Joey Logano
2018Kevin Harvick
2017Martin Truex Jr.
2016Brad Keselowski
2015Kevin Harvick
2014Brad Keselowski

Pennzoil 400 info

  • Date: Sunday, March 3, 2024
  • Location: Las Vegas Motor Speedway, Las Vegas Nevada
  • How to watch: FOX
  • Defending winner: William Byron

Pennzoil 400 picks made Feb. 29 at 1 p.m. ET

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