Padres vs. Phillies Game 4 Picks, Predictions: Philadelphia Looks to Ride Wave of Momentum
The Philadelphia Phillies take a 2-1 series lead into Game 4 of the NLCS against the San Diego Padres. Check out our Padres-Phillies picks.
After a hard-fought 4-2 victory for the Phillies on Friday, they host the Padres again with a chance to take a vital 3-1 series lead.
This has the potential to be quite the bullpen game, with little expectations for either San Diego’s Mike Clevinger or Philadelphia’s Bailey Falter to pitch deep into the game.
Here are my MLB picks and predictions for Game 4 of the NLCS matchup between the Padres and Phillies (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 scale).
Padres vs. Phillies Game Info
Date/Time: Saturday Oct. 22, 7:45 p.m. ET
Location: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
Weather: 61 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 3-mph wind
Padres vs. Phillies Odds
Padres vs. Phillies Odds Analysis
The Phillies are the Moneyline favorites at all sportsbooks, ranging from –110 at BetMGM to -115 at DraftKings. Cash has come in the favor of the Padres at 61%, but 52% of tickets have come in favor of the Phillies.
The total is set at 8 at all major sportsbooks.
Padres vs. Phillies Projected Pitchers
Mike Clevinger (Postseason: 0-1, 13.50 ERA, 3.00 WHIP) vs. Bailey Falter (8-5, 4.36 ERA, 1.21 WHIP)
It’s been a long year for Mike Clevinger, and the postseason has been no different. He’s 0-1 this October with a 13.50 ERA in his one game against the Dodgers. Clevinger lasted just 2 2/3 innings, allowing six hits and five earned runs with two walks and three strikeouts. Barring a miracle, this is expected to be a bullpen game for San Diego.
Meanwhile, Bailey Falter has no playoff experience. Phillies manager Rob Thompson said he hopes Falter can go one time through San Diego’s lineup. In his first season primarily used as a starter, Falter recorded a 3.86 ERA in 16 games started. He was especially good toward the end of the season.
Padres vs. Phillies Picks
- Moneyline: Phillies (-110 via BetMGM)
- Over/Under: Under 8 (-115 via FanDuel)
- Prop bet: Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run (+290 via DraftKings)
Padres vs. Phillies ML Pick
Phillies (-110) ★★★
Momentum is very much in Philadelphia’s favor.
The Phillies' offense has seemingly thrived off the energy of their home fans, and the crowd will surely be loud in support of their team on Saturday.
Though San Diego has the better bullpen, that might not matter if the Phillies can capitalize on Clevinger's mistakes early. The Phillies' lineup has thus far been able to break through Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove. With Clevinger’s down year and troubled history in the postseason, Philadelphia has a very good chance of building an insurmountable lead.
Padres vs. Phillies O/U Pick
Under 8 (-115) ★★
San Diego’s bullpen hasn’t given up a run this series, which is especially important if Clevinger slips up early in the contest.
Though the Phillies' bullpen isn’t near as talented as the Padres', it's been solid so far this postseason aside from a Game 2 meltdown of this series.
It’s a close call, but I’m going with the Under tonight.
Padres vs. Phillies Prop Pick
Schwarber to hit a home run (+290) ★★
Schwarber hit a pivotal first-inning home run for the Phillies in Game 3, and he has a chance to go yard once again early on Saturday.
The big lefty regularly shines in the biggest moments and will ride the wave of momentum and fan support to another monster performance in Game 4.
Where to Bet on Padres-Phillies Picks
Padres-Phillies picks made 10/22/2022 at 10:55 a.m. ET.
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