Marlins vs. Athletics MLB Picks: Finding Value in Battle of Basement Dwellers
The Miami Marlins are in Oakland looking to win back-to-back games after shutting out the Athletics on Monday night. Here are our Marlins-Athletics picks for Tuesday night.
This isn’t the most compelling matchup on Tuesday's slate; in fact, it’s perhaps the least. However, sometimes the best bets are on the worst games.
That should be the case Tuesday as the Marlins take on the Athletics for the second contest of a three-game set. Miami shut out the A's on Monday, which isn’t too surprising for one of the worst offensive teams in baseball.
Here are my MLB picks and predictions for Tuesday’s Marlins vs. Athletics game (odds via BetRivers and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Marlins vs. Athletics Game Info
Date: Tuesday, Aug. 23, 9:40
p.m. ET
TV: BSFL, NBCSCA, MLB TV
Location: RingCentral Coliseum,
Oakland, CA
Weather: 75 degrees, 0% chance of
precipitation, 5-mph winds
Marlins vs. Athletics Odds Analysis
The Marlins opened at -143 and are still around there across the board. The best you can get is -140 at DraftKings, with Miami holding most of the tickets and handle thus far. The A’s range from +118 (Caesars Sportsbook) to +128 (FanDuel Sportsbook).
The total is set around 7 or 7.5 across the board.
Marlins vs. Athletics Projected Pitchers
Pablo Lopez (7-8, 3.83 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) vs. Zach Logue (3-7, 6.35 ERA, 1.50 WHIP)
Lopez has had a largely respectable season for the Fish. The Marlins are 12-12 in his 24 starts, including 7-5 on the road. He’s hit a rough patch recently with tough starts against the San Diego Padres and New York Mets, but the A’s are nowhere near that level offensively.
Logue has been downright pitiful for the A’s. Oakland is 2-7 in his nine starts, and he’s allowed a combined 13 earned runs in his last two outings.
Marlins vs. Athletics Picks
Marlins vs. Athletics ML Pick
Marlins (-140) ★★★★
The Fish have the upper hand on the mound, and they’re simply the better team. Miami is 32-25 against teams with a losing record while the A’s are 23-37, including 8-14 in the second half (Miami is 9-10).
Lopez should be able to find a groove against a weak A’s lineup, and the Marlins have enough offense to put up at least a couple of runs against Logue. The Marlins are 13-14 against left-handed starters this season compared to 40-55 against right-handers.
Marlins vs. Athletics O/U Pick
Under 7 (+100) ★★★
These are two of the best teams for Unders this season, due to their poor offenses. They’ve each hit the Under at a 55.7% clip.
Lopez has allowed two earned runs or less in 14 of his 24 starts, and it’d be surprising if the A’s got more than that against him. Logue may give up a few more runs, but the Marlins have scored four runs or fewer in 23 straight games, including three or fewer in 21 of those contests.
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Marlins vs. Athletics Prop Bet
Lopez Under 5.5 strikeouts (-106) ★★★
Lopez averages just under a strikeout per inning (131 in 134 innings) this season, but a lot of that damage came earlier in the year. He started the season with 6-plus strikeouts in seven of 11 starts and has hit that mark in just four of his last 13 outings.
Edward Cabrera, who typically racks up a lot of strikeouts, was the first starter in six games to strike out more than five batters against the Athletics. That includes guys like Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, and Dane Dunning. Lopez may surprise us, but all signs point to the Under 5.5 strikeouts.
Where to Bet on Marlins vs. Athletics Bets
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Marlins-Athletics picks from 8/23/2022 at 12:50 p.m. ET.
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