Today's MLB Player Props & Expert Picks: Can Reds' Bats Stay Hot in the Desert?
With a full day of baseball on tap, let's dive into our expert MLB player props and picks based on the best MLB odds.
Wednesday's baseball action kicked off at 12:35 p.m. ET with a matchup between the Toronto Blue Jays and the Baltimore Orioles, following a rainout on Tuesday. This game marked the start of a busy 15-game schedule.
Several afternoon games followed, providing opportunities for player props. Trevor Rogers and the Miami Marlins faced off against the Detroit Tigers at 1:10 p.m. ET, while Garrett Crochet and the Chicago White Sox hosted the Washington Nationals at 2:10 p.m. ET. Later, Brandon Pfaadt and the Arizona Diamondbacks welcomed the Cincinnati Reds for a 3:40 p.m. ET matchup.
As the day progresses, two divisional clashes take center stage. The New York Mets aimed to halt the Philadelphia Phillies' momentum, led by Ranger Suarez, at 6:40 p.m. ET. Meanwhile, the Boston Red Sox look to build on their extra-innings victory from Tuesday as they battle the Tampa Bay Rays at 7:10 p.m. ET.
Wrapping up the evening, the Los Angeles Dodgers, favorites in the World Series odds, face Logan Webb and the San Francisco Giants at 9:45 p.m. ET in what promises to be an exciting showdown.
Here are our MLB player props and expert picks for Wednesday (MLB picks based on odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Wednesday’s MLB expert picks
- Carlos Carrasco Under 3.5 strikeouts (+130 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
- Trevor Rogers Over 3.5 strikeouts (-120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Garrett Crochet Under 6.5 strikeouts (-130 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Brandon Pfaadt Under 5.5 strikeouts (+100 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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MLB player props
Carlos Carrasco Under 3.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Under 3.5 (+110) | Under 4.5 (+106) | Under 3.5 (+105) | Under 3.5 (+116) | Under 3.5 (+130) |
Game info: Guardians vs. Rangers | Moneyline: Rangers (-170 via Betway) | Total: Over 8.5 (-125)/Undr 8.5 (+105) via Betway | Start time: 8:05 p.m. ET
Cleveland Guardians veteran Carlos Carrasco is a shell of the pitcher he used to be. A dominant strikeout artist for years (he's still sitting at 9.15 K/9 for his career), "Cookie" is managing just 6.92 punchouts per nine innings this year. He's combining that with an abysmal 3.79 walks per nine, too.
To make matters worse for Carrasco, the Texas Rangers don't really strike out very often. They rank in the top 10 in strikeout rate, and they're just outside the top 10 in wRC+. This is a dangerous lineup, and Carrasco will be lucky if he makes it through five innings.
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That's likely why he's projected for just 3.26 strikeouts on Wednesday. That's a decent buffer from the four he'd need to clear this total, and we're also getting an incredible price on this Under. As you can see, the rest of our best live betting sites are offering much shorter odds.
Additionally, Pinnacle is sitting at +103 after opening at a slightly longer +106. It's not as much movement as I generally like to see, and that's why this is a three-star pick rather than four stars.
Best odds: +130 via bet365
Trevor Rogers Over 3.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐⭐
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Over 3.5 (-120) | Over 3.5 (-128) | Over 3.5 (-133) | Over 3.5 (-137) | Over 3.5 (-130) |
Game info: Marlins vs. Tigers | Moneyline: Tigers (-175 via Betway) | Total: Over 8.5 (+100)/Under 8.5 (-120) via Betway | Start time: 2:10 p.m. ET
Miami Marlins left-hander Trevor Rogers has strangely stopped striking guys out this year. The 26-year-old has managed 9.81 strikeouts per nine innings for his career, but he's sitting at just 7.54 this season, and he's combining that with an inflated walk rate and a very unlucky .370 BABIP and 61% strand rate.
Rogers gets a chance to right the ship on Wednesday against a Detroit Tigers team that strikes out at the eighth-highest rate in the league, and it ranks in the bottom third in walk rate.
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Rogers' projections on Wednesday support a bounce-back effort, as he's sitting at 4.54 strikeouts based on the average from two of our trusted models. Based on that projection, we're getting roughly 19.5% positive expected value on this bet.
Not only are these odds good compared to those at our other best sports betting sites, but Pinnacle - which features one of the most respected trading teams in the sports betting industry - is already at -172 after opening at -139.
Best odds: -120 via DraftKings
Garrett Crochet Under 6.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐⭐
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Under 6.5 (-150) | Under 6.5 (-130) | Under 6.5 (-154) | Under 6.5 (-152) | Under 6.5 (-150) |
Game info: Nationals vs. White Sox | Moneyline: White Sox (-150 via Betway) | Total: Over 7.5 (+100)/Under 7.5 (-120) via Betway | Start time: 2:10 p.m. ET
It appears the much-hyped Garrett Crochet campaign that fans and fantasy baseball enthusiasts were calling for is upon us. Sure, Crochet's ERA is a bloated 4.63, but his peripherals are ridiculous, including his truly elite 2.36 SIERA. Crochet is striking out an absurd 12.34 batters per nine so far this season.
However, he takes on a Washington Nationals team on Wednesday that doesn't strike out too often. The Nats sit in the top third in the league in strikeout percentage, and they make sure to use their speed once they get on the bases, sitting second in MLB in steals.
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Crochet's projections on Wednesday are a bit surprising, with the average sitting at just 5.06. I initially hesitated when I reached that number, but we have a couple of other indicators that this is a good bet.
First, it's not fringy in terms of expected value. Based on this projection, we're getting roughly 32.5% +EV. Therefore, even if his strikeout projection was half a K higher, this would still be a good +EV bet.
Secondly, we've seen Crochet's Under get smashed at Pinnacle. It opened at -136 and has been bet to -185, and action on the Over is very limited to what appears to be a relatively small bet on +128 odds earlier Wednesday morning.
The rest of our best sports betting apps are hovering around -150 so get these odds before they're gone!
Best odds: -130 via FanDuel
Brandon Pfaadt Under 5.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐⭐
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Under 5.5 (+100) | Under 5.5 (-106) | Under 5.5 (+100) | Under 5.5 (-109) | Under 5.5 (-115) |
Game info: Reds vs. Diamondbacks | Moneyline: Diamondbacks (-150 via Betway) | Total: Over 8.5 (-115)/Under 8.5 (-105) via Betway | Start time: 3:40 p.m. ET
We've bet on Brandon Pfaadt's strikeouts prop many times already this season, sometimes on the Over but more often - like today - on the Under.
Pfaadt is averaging just 8.04 K/9 this season after a zero-punchout effort in his last start against the Baltimore Orioles. Really, the only team Pfaadt has sat down with ease this season was the Seattle Mariners, and they're apparently trying to break the record for most strikeouts in a season.
Pfaadt does, however, get another swing-happy team on Wednesday. The Cincinnati Reds aren't quite on the Mariners' level, but they own the fifth-worst strikeout rate in the league. So, something's got to give in this matchup.
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According to all three of our trusted projection models, it'll be Pfaadt who flinches.
He's projected for just 5.06 Ks on Wednesday. Based on that projection, we're getting 21% +EV on this bet. You can get these odds at both BetMGM and DraftKings, while our other best sportsbooks are hovering around -105 to -115.
For its part, Pinnacle is sitting at -134 after opening at -107, and it's been one-way action there, further supporting that we're on the right side of this.
Best odds: +100 via BetMGM
MLB player props made Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET.
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- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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- Best Live Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)
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