Astros vs. Braves MLB Picks: Expect Pitchers Duel in Atlanta

In the second game of a three-game series of interleague play between the Astros and Braves at Truist Park, both clubs have two young pitchers with nearly identical numbers taking the mound to contain two of the best offenses in the league. Here are our Astros-Braves picks. 

In a three-game contest between two of the best in MLB both in hitting and pitching, the Braves took the first game Friday over Houston 6-2 for their 10th win in their last 11 games.

With two young star pitchers making their starts, Saturday's game has the making of a pitcher’s duel. However with the amount of depth between these two lineups both Cristian Javier and Spencer Strider will have their hands full. 

Here are my MLB picks and predictions for Saturday's game between the Astros and Braves (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and BetMGM).

Astros vs. Braves Game Info

Date/Time: Saturday August 20, 7:15 p.m. ET
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
Weather: 82 degrees, 12% chance of precipitation, 3-mph wind

Astros vs. Braves Odds Analysis

The Braves are the Moneyline favorites, ranging from -160 at BetMGM to -166 at FanDuel. 76% of the cash and 57% of the tickets are on Atlanta to win.

The total is set at 7.5 at all major sportsbooks. That's a drop from the opening total of 8.

Astros vs. Braves Projected Pitchers

Cristian Javier (7-8, 2.96 ERA, 1.03 WHIP) vs. Spencer Strider (7-4, 3.04 ERA, 1.04 WHIP)

In his third season in the majors, 25-year-old Cristian Javier is in the midst of his best season yet. In 18 starts, he’s recorded a 2.96 ERA with opponents batting just .184 against him in 106 1/3 innings pitched. In those innings, he’s only given up 13 home runs, with 3.3 Ks per 9 innings on average. 

Javier’s coming off a one-hitter versus the Oakland Athletics on Sunday. Pitching over six innings, he allowed just three walks and struck out six in the 6-3 victory.  

He’s not the only young pitcher in this matchup coming off a hot start though. The top contender for the NL Rookie of the Year alongside his teammate Michael Harris, Strider held the potent New York Mets offense Monday night to just three hits and one run in five innings pitched, with one walk and four strikeouts. 

Strider has near identical numbers to Javier. The 23-year-old has also held opponents to a .184 batting average and has collected 142 strikeouts in 94 2/3 innings pitched. He holds a strikeout percentage of 37.2%, with just .48 home runs allowed 9 innings on average and a K/BB of 4.06.

Astros vs. Braves Picks

Astros vs. Braves ML Pick

Astros (+144)

These two teams are very much a reflection of one another in a lot of respects.

Both teams have incredibly deep lineups. Kyle Tucker currently leads the Astros offense with a .259 BA with 22 home runs and 81 RBIs. Austin Riley has been a weapon for the Braves, batting .291 with 31 home runs and 78 RBIs.

In addition, both have a similar OPS that ranks amongst the top of MLB — the Braves are the second best in the league with a .763 and the Astros are not far behind at sixth with .747. Atlanta also has the league-best OPS in the last week with a .854 and is averaging 4.88 runs per game on the season.

Because it has so much potential to go either way, I’m taking the underdog with the Astros ML. If this game doesn’t end up being a pitcher’s duel, it’s more likely the Astros are going to be able to crack the Braves’ bullpen than the other way around. 

Astros vs. Braves O/U Pick

Under 7.5 (-118)

Both Javier and Strider have low ERAs and high strikeout rates and are coming off strong starts last time out. They’ve proven themselves as effective against whatever lineup you put them up against.

However, the Astros bullpen has an edge over the Braves. Houston’s bullpen has a 2.96 ERA compared to Atlanta’s 3.21. Opponents are also batting on average .216 against Houston, and .232 against Atlanta.

For all these reasons, I'm taking the Under.

Astros vs. Braves Prop Pick

Strider Under 7.5 strikeouts (-152)

This matchup projects similar to Strider's last start against the Mets. The Mets have very similar offensive numbers to the Astros, ranking 7th in the league in OPS (.737) compared to the Astros’ sixth (.747). 

The Astros offense has more depth than the Mets, with guys from top to bottom who could make an impact at the plate. Even with all his success this season, Strider’s still a rookie and these Astros hitters know how to capitalize on even the smallest misstep.

Where To Bet on Astros vs. Braves Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel Sportsbook
Caesars Sportsbook
DraftKings Sportsbook
PointsBet
BetMGM

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Astros-Braves picks from 8/20/2022 at 12:56 p.m. ET