In the National League, Spencer Strider is the favorite to win the Rookie of the Year award, whereas in the American League, Julio Rodriguez remains the frontrunner. We examine the MLB Rookie of the Year futures markets to determine which players represent value with their current prices.
On the odds board, Julio Rodriguez has increased his lead for the American League Rookie of the Year award, but is there anyone gaining on him statistically?
The National League's new favorite is Spencer Strider, who has displaced his teammate Michael Harris II. The Atlanta Braves righty is seeking to become the first starting pitcher to win the award in the NL since Jacob deGrom in 2014.
In placing futures bets, bettors must always consider two factors: Will this player actually win the market, and are the odds only going to become shorter from here on out, relative to the early number? If the answer is yes to both of these questions, then you should consider purchasing that specific player.
In this article, we analyze the AL and NL Rookie of the Year futures markets in search of value in the current numbers.
AL Rookie of the Year Odds
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AL Rookie of the Year Picks: Favorite
Rodriguez, OF, Seattle Mariners (-700 via Caesars)
Rodriguez began the season with odds of +600 to win the AL Rookie of the Year, and he remained available at this price until the beginning of May. Our expectation was that Rodriguez would seize control of this market, and that is exactly what he has achieved. The 21-year-old has been priced at minus money in this market for a long time, but this is not the runaway vote that appeared a couple of months ago.
In terms of fWAR and bWAR, Adley Rutschman of the Baltimore Orioles is closely behind Rodriguez and is making this a very interesting race. To ensure victory, if you are holding onto a Rodriguez ticket from the beginning of the season at a price of around +600, I would recommend purchasing Rutschman at +700.
AL Rookie of the Year Picks: Contenders
Rutschman, C, Baltimore Orioles (+700 via FanDuel)
Toward the beginning of August, I recommended buying Rutschman at +6000 to win the AL ROY at PointsBet. As a stand-alone bet, this price point was well worth taking a chance on Rutschman catching Rodriguez. With Rutschman now trading at +700 to win the AL ROY, I do not recommend buying him unless you already have a futures bet on Rodriguez.
Rutschman's fate most likely depends on whether the Orioles make the postseason. With the assumption that Rodriguez will win, many people have stopped paying attention to this market. Watch how both players finish the season, there is still a possibility that Rutschman may steal this and his price may not reflect it.
NL Rookie of the Year Odds
NL Rookie of the Year Picks: Favorites
Strider, SP, Atlanta Braves (-300 via Caesars)
At the beginning of July, we discussed buying Strider at +500 to win the NL Rookie of the Year award. Although I believe Strider will win this market, I would not invest in him at -300, as the opportunity to purchase Strider has passed. In addition, I am not interested in any hedge opportunities related to his teammate, Michael Harris II.
In my opinion, Harris's price point of +390 is too low and will eat into Strider profits too much. I also believe that Strider has a strong hold on the award and will win. His stats are strong enough to win the Cy Young, let alone the ROY.
NL Rookie of the Year Picks: Contenders
Harris, OF, Braves (+390 via FanDuel)
Harris has the highest fWAR of any rookie batter in the NL, two wins more than his closest competitor. Unfortunately for Harris, Strider has been equally impressive and shows no sign of giving up his position at the top of the odds board.
Harris does not seem likely to catch Strider down the stretch, and the +390 that is available is not high enough for me to consider betting on him.
Where to Bet on MLB Rookie of the Year Odds
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