Our Army vs. Navy parlay predictions based on the best college football odds don’t anticipate an Over streak to start in the 2023 contest.
Last year's Army-Navy clash brought an end to a remarkable 16-game streak of consecutive Unders, culminating in a thrilling double-overtime showdown that finally broke the trend of low-scoring affairs between the two teams.
With another historically low total anticipated, do we expect Army (5-6) and Navy (5-6) to muster enough offense to clear it? Or will a new streak beginning on the Over be stopped in its tracks?
Army vs. Navy parlay
(Odds via FanDuel)
- Under 27.5 (-102) ⭐⭐⭐
- Navy +2.5 (+100) ⭐⭐⭐
- Alex Tecza Over 48.5 rushing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Combined odds: +494 via FanDuel
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SGP predictions for Army vs. Navy
Under 27.5 (-102) ⭐⭐⭐
Neither defense is particularly efficient, with Army ranking 89th in adjusted defensive efficiency and Navy landing 60th in the category. But those rankings make the respective defenses look like juggernauts when compared to the offenses they’ll be facing.
Army’s offense is 107th in adjusted efficiency, while Navy ranks 132nd out of 133 FBS teams. Navy’s defense has typically been exploited through the air. That’s not something Army will be able to do, as the Black Knights average fewer than 100 passing yards per game against FBS foes.
The option style of offense run by both teams lends itself to prominent rushing totals inside the top 20 in the country, but without stable passing games to lead to explosive plays down the field, we’re seeing the total reach a historic low at 28 points at DraftKings and 27.5 points at FanDuel.
Although the 16-year Under streak was snapped last year, it took double overtime to do it. We’re betting the total has dropped multiple points from last year’s number for a reason.
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Navy +2.5 (+100) ⭐⭐⭐
Although it’s difficult to imagine Navy’s offense winning a high-scoring affair, our belief in an ultra-low total lends itself to Navy’s potential to keep things close. The Midshipmen have the 30th-ranked run defense in college football this season, allowing 125.3 yards per game on the ground.
On the other side, Army has struggled tremendously to stop the run, ranking 120th in the nation in run defense while allowing 188.8 rushing yards per game to its opponents. Running the football is basically all either of these teams do, so I like getting points at even odds on Navy with this spread.
DraftKings lists Navy at +3 with -115 odds. The significant movement on the odds via FanDuel to +100 at +2.5 is at least worth considering from a value perspective.
Alex Tecza Over 48.5 rushing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Don’t just check the boxscore of Navy’s most-recent game and assume that Alex Tecza isn’t an important part of this roster. The sophomore fullback has been far-and-away the leading rusher for the Midshipmen on the season, racking up 724 yards on the ground.
On Nov. 25 against SMU, Tecza garnered just two carries for one rushing yard, but that can be attributed to a game script that saw the Midshipmen go down 28-7 in the first quarter. Tecza has smashed this 48.5-yard rushing line in six of his last nine games and should be a focal point of this rivalry matchup.
For a parlay that doesn’t involve player props, DraftKings might be a better option considering the better lines on Navy and the Under offered there. But in Navy’s most meaningful game of the year, we like its leading rusher to be heavily involved in the action to clear an attainable rushing line that is not offered by DraftKings.
Army-Navy SGP picks made 12/08/2023 at 2:45 p.m. ET.
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